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CU’s 2026 Schedule Countdown – The Buffs’ Six “Easiest” Games
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Two years ago, in the Big 12 Media Days preseason poll, Arizona State was picked to finish last. Rather than finish 16th, the Sun Devils finished first, earning a spot in the College Football Playoff. Last season, the Big 12 thought better of it, and discontinued the preseason poll.
Which is one way of saying … With the constant upheaval in college football, making preseason predictions is a fools errand.
It’s going to be a season of “toss up” games for the Buffs, which makes the following task all the more difficult … ranking CU’s 2026 opponents from what should be the easiest games, to those which should prove harder to win.
Below are six of CU’s 12 fall opponents, including information on some preseason national rankings. These are the six games which I am labeling as the “easiest” on CU’s schedule, based upon factors including the opposing team’s talent, returning starters, together with when and where the teams play. My follow up Essay, to be posted next Sunday, will rank CU’s six most difficult games of the 2026 season.
[Note … For point of reference and comparison … At Lindy’s, Colorado is rated as the No. 71 team in the nation (last in the Big 12). Athlon has CU at No. 64 (14th in the Big 12). The ESPN Football Power Index has CU comes at No. 45, oddly seven spots higher than last year, when the Buffs were coming off of a 9-4 season.]
[Note II … Last fall, CU went 2-4 against the teams I rated as the “Six ‘Easiest’ Games of 2025“, and 1-5 against the teams I rated as the “Six ‘Most Difficult’ Games of 2025“. In 2024, CU went 6-0 against the teams I rated as the “Six ‘Easiest’ Games of 2024“, and 3-3 against the teams I rated as the “Six ‘Toughest’ Games of 2024“.]
The 2026 list …
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— No. 12 … Weber State … Saturday, September 12th … Folsom Field, 1:30 p.m., MT, ESPN+ …
Buff fans know better than to assume any CU game is a “gimme”.
Two years ago, CU’s opener against then FCS kingpin North Dakota State came down to the game’s final play, with the Bison coming up just four yards short of an upset. Last year, the Buffs took on another former FCS power, Delaware. The Blue Hens were making their FBS debut in 2025, and were down only 10-7 to the Buffs late in the second quarter.
This season’s “gimme” game is against Weber State. The Wildcats have a proud history as a member of the Big Sky Conference, including a streak of winning the conference four straight years between 2017-2020. Of late, however, Weber State has struggled, going 4-8 the past two seasons, prompting a change in leadership. Weber State’s new head coach is Eric Kjar, who posted an impressive 112-10 record the past nine seasons … as the head coach for Corner Canyon High School in Draper, Utah.
Quarterback Devin Brown will lead the Wildcats. The former Ohio State and California quarterback comes to Weber State for his senior year, reuniting with his former high school coach. In his entire four-year collegiate career, however, Brown has been a backup, completing a grand total of 31 of 55 passes for 379 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions. As a result, Brown, like his team, is an unknown (though CU coaches and players will have a chance to check out the opposition if they would like. Weber State has a Week Zero game against Northern Colorado in Greeley on August 28th).
The past two seasons, Weber State has played two Power Four conference teams in non-conference play, falling 35-3 to Washington in 2024, then 48-3 to Arizona last fall.
If CU doesn’t post a similar rout of the Wildcats in the Buffs’ home opener … Well, it’s gonna be a long season …
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— No. 11 … Central Florida … Saturday, November 28th … Lindy’s No. 63 (13th in Big 12) … Athlon’s No. 65 (15th in the Big 12) … ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) No. 57 …
Year One of the return of Scott Frost to Orlando wasn’t a huge success. The Knights opened the season with a 3-0 record, posting wins over the likes of Jacksonville State and North Carolina A&T. The Big 12 campaign wasn’t quite so successful, however, with UCF going 2-7, with home wins over fellow second-tier Big 12 teams West Virginia and Oklahoma State.
In Scott Frost’s previous stint at UCF (2016-17), the Knights went from 6-7 in Year One to 13-0 record and a claimed “national championship” in 2017. The chances this fall of UCF, in Year Two of Scott Frost II, going from 5-7 to 13-0 … are not great.
UCF is banking on James Madison transfer quarterback Alonza Barnett III to lead the way, with a transfer running back from Louisville and decent returning talent in the wide receiver room hoping four new starters along the offensive line will gel quickly.
The defense has talent in the secondary, but the front seven – like almost every other team which finished with a losing record in 2025 – is a mix-and-match of transfers and returning players.
The Buffs don’t play Central Florida until Thanksgiving weekend. How the game will look then will be largely dependent upon how the first 11 games go for each team. UCF has gimme games against Bethune-Cookman and Georgia State in non-conference play, and get several of the projected second tier Big 12 teams – Baylor and Iowa State – at home.
Will Scott Frost be on the hot seat when he returns to Boulder to close out the regular season? Will Coach Prime?
To be determined …
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— No. 10 … at Northwestern … Saturday, September 19th … Lindy’s No. 50 (12th in the Big Ten) … Athlon’s No. 57 (14th in the Big Ten0 … ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) No. 60 …
It gives you some indication as to how difficult CU’s 2026 schedule is when the Buffs’ third “easiest” game of the season is a road game against a Big Ten team.
Northwestern is coming off of a 7-6-4-5 season. The Wildcats got off to a 5-2 start last fall, including a road win over Penn State which sealed the fate of Nittany Lion head coach James Franklin. The back end of the season, though, was tougher, with four losses in five games before the Wildcats salvaged a winning season with a GameAbove Sports Bowl win over Central Michigan.
The big news in Evanston this off-season was the hiring of Chip Kelly as the new offensive coordinator, taking over an offense. Northwestern’s offense last fall was almost as bad as CU’s, averaging only 21.3 points per game, 129th nationally (CU averaged 20.9 points per game in 2025). Kelly brought in another name familiar to CU fans at quarterback, with former Oregon State quarterback Aidan Chiles coming to Northwestern by way of Michigan State. Chiles showed promise early in his career, but was benched last season before departing East Lansing.
Chiles will have decent skill position players to work with, but will have four new starters along the offensive line. The defense will boast one of the best secondaries in the Big Ten, but is not deep along the defensive line.
Northwestern will be Game Three for the Buffs (after Georgia Tech and Weber State), but CU will be only Game Two for the Wildcats. After opening with a good FCS team in South Dakota State, Northwestern gets bye week for the year before facing Colorado. Having an off week so early may work against the Wildcats late in the season, with ten straight weeks of games, but they will certainly be rested for the Buffs. CU fans can only hope that South Dakota State gives Northwestern a game in the opener, to Chip Kelly & Co. will give the CU coaching staff something to study.
The other quirk about the CU/Northwestern game is that it will be the last for Northwestern at “Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium”, a soccer/lacrosse stadium with a capacity of just over 12,000. Northwestern’s $862 million renovation of Ryan Field will not make its debut against Colorado, with the grand re-opening being saved for a Friday night game against Penn State on October 2nd.
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— No. 9 … at Cincinnati … Saturday, November 21st … Lindy’s No. 51 (10th in the Big 12) … Athlon’s No. 63 (13th in the Big 12) … ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) No. 46 …
Having two of CU’s “easiest” two games being the last two games of the season could either be a blessing … or a curse. If the Buffs can put together a decent run out of the gate, then hang on during a tough October, then getting two of its lesser opponents at the end of November could propel the Buffs to a strong finish.
But … If the wheels fall off of the CU train early in the season, the Coach Prime retirement watch could be in full swing by the time the Buffs make their final road trip of the season.
Cincinnati will open the 2026 season replacing virtually every skill position player on offense, including quarterback Brendan Sorsby. The Sorsby saga was not only the story of the off-season, but his past could still bring sorrow to the Bearcats (with an NCAA investigating Sorsby’s gambling while at he was at Cincinnati underway).
Cincinnati does bring back three starters along the offensive line, but there are questions as to how the offense will score, now led by quarterback JC French IV, most recently of Georgia Southern.
Cincinnati opened the 2025 campaign with a 7-1 record, including a 5-0 start in Big 12. The Bearcats, though, faded badly last fall. Like Colorado, Cincinnati lost its last five games of the season, including a 35-13 loss to Navy in the Liberty Bowl. The defense was much to blame for the fall, giving up an average of 36 points per game during that stretch.
This fall, Cincinnati doesn’t play a road game until October, so another fast start isn’t out of the question. The Bearcats, though, only have one home game in November – the November 21st game against Colorado. Back-to-back-to-back games against Texas Tech, Utah and Houston before facing CU may take some of the excitement out of the season, and lessen the Nippert Stadium homefield advantage to a degree by the time the Buffs come to town.
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— No. 8 … at Baylor … Saturday, September 16th … Lindy’s No. 56 (11th in the Big 12) … Athlon’s No. 63 (12th in the Big 12) … ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) No. 46 …
The 2026 season will be head coach Dave Aranda’s seventh at Baylor … and may be his last.
Aranda is 36-37 in his first six seasons in Waco, with the 5-7, 3-6 2025 season typical of what Baylor fans have endured. Baylor opened the 2025 season with a 4-2 record, including wins over SMU and Kansas State. In the second half of the season, though, the Bears went 1-5, giving up an average of 41 points in the five losses.
Aranda has placed his offense – and his future – in the hands of former Florida quarterback DJ Lagway. The former five-star recruit and two up-and-down years at Florida, and will now take snaps behind an offense replacing four starters along the offensive line. There is talent at the skill positions, with Bear fans hoping their team can score as many points (31.1 per game) as last year’s team.
The Baylor offense will need to score, because the defense will likely be giving up points in bunches. The Bears were ranked 120th in total defense and scoring defense last season … and has an all-new front seven this season.
Baylor doesn’t play a true road game this fall until October, though a “neutral site” game against Auburn in Atlanta will feel like a road game. If the Bears can get past the Tigers, Baylor will likely be 3-0 heading into its game against Colorado, with layup games against Prairie View A&M and Louisiana Tech being all which stand between Baylor and its Big 12 opener against the Buffs.
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— No. 7 … Kansas State … Saturday, September 16th … Lindy’s No. 38 (8th in the Big 12) … Athlon’s No. 31 (5th in the Big 12) … ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) No. 41 …
The last time CU fans watched their team in action, it was a game in Manhattan against Kansas State to finish out the 2025 regular season. The lethargic contest finished with a 24-14 Wildcat victory, giving KSU a 6-6 record and bowl eligibility. The Wildcats, though, chose to stay home rather than play in a bowl game, earning the ire (and a fine) from the Big 12.
Head coach Chris Klieman quietly retired, leaving the door open for former quarterback Collin Klein to return to Manhattan as a head coach (formerly the offensive coordinator at Texas A&M).
Much is being made of quarterback Avery Johnson returning for what seems like his seventh season. It’s always nice to have your quarterback back, but is Johnson really the answer? Kansas State last season finished 95th in passing offense – hardly a ringing endorsement. Gone are former Buff running back Dylan Edwards (who transferred to rival Kansas) … and four starting offensive linemen.
Kansas State will likely have ten new starters on defense, with the defensive line and defensive backfield being completely replaced … and it’s not as if those who are gone were great, with KSU giving up almost 400 yards per game (82nd nationally).
The Wildcats open the Collin Klein era with five of their first six games at home (heavy sigh from Buff fans), with the only road game coming in Game Four against beatable Cincinnati. In October, though, things get dicey. Home games against Houston and rival Kansas are followed by road games against Arizona State and Colorado.
The game in Boulder will be played on Halloween. Even if the Buffs are struggling in the first half of the season … you know the CU student section will be in full voice for the game against Kansas State.
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… Coming next Sunday … “2026 Season: CU’s Six Most Difficult Games” …
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