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CU’s 2026 Schedule Countdown – The Buffs’ Six “Most Difficult” Games
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Two years ago, in the Big 12 Media Days preseason coaches poll, Arizona State was picked to finish last. Rather than finish 16th, the Sun Devils finished first, earning a spot in the College Football Playoff. Last season, the Big 12 thought better of it, and discontinued the preseason poll.
Which is one way of saying … With the constant upheaval in college football, making preseason predictions is a fools errand.
It’s going to be a season of “toss up” games for the Buffs, which makes the following task all the more difficult … ranking CU’s 2026 opponents from what should be the easiest games, to those which should prove harder to win.
Below are six of CU’s 12 fall opponents, including information on some preseason national rankings. These are the six games which I am labeling as the “most difficult” on CU’s schedule, based upon factors including the opposing team’s talent, returning starters, together with when and where the teams play.
… Previously Posted… “2026 Season: CU’s Six ‘Easiest’ Games” …
[Note … For point of reference and comparison … At Lindy’s, Colorado is rated as the No. 71 team in the nation (last in the Big 12). Athlon has CU at No. 64 (14th in the Big 12). The ESPN Football Power Index has CU comes at No. 45, oddly seven spots higher than last year, when the Buffs were coming off of a 9-4 season.]
[Note II … Last fall, CU went 2-4 against the teams I rated as the “Six ‘Easiest’ Games of 2025“, and 1-5 against the teams I rated as the “Six ‘Most Difficult’ Games of 2025“. In 2024, CU went 6-0 against the teams I rated as the “Six ‘Easiest’ Games of 2024“, and 3-3 against the teams I rated as the “Six ‘Toughest’ Games of 2024“.]
The 2026 list …
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— No. 6 … at Oklahoma State … Saturday, October 24th … Lindy’s No. 30 (6th in the Big 12) … Athlon’s No. 36th (8th in the Big 12) … ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) No. 54 …
Oklahoma State hasn’t beaten a Power Four conference team since September 7, 2024. The Cowboys haven’t beaten a Big 12 rival since November 25, 2023 … a span of 19 games.
And yet … Oklahoma State is consistently being projected as a bowl team for the 2026 season. The Cowboys are ranked by Lindy’s as one of the top 30 teams in the nation.
How is that possible?
Call it the Curt Cignetti syndrome. All Cignetti did was move on from James Madison to Indiana two years ago, and changed the perception of what is possible. Cignetti took the Hoosiers to the College Football Playoff in Year One, then to the national championship in Year Two.
Now it’s Eric Morris’ turn, moving on from North Texas to Oklahoma State … and bringing some of his Mean Green stars with him.
Quarterback Drew Mestemaker led the nation in passing last season, with 4,379 yards passing to go with 34 touchdowns (the numbers were a little padded by a 608-yard passing day against Charlotte and 469 yards against Rice). North Texas teammate Caleb Hawkins, who had 1,434 yards rushing and 25 touchdowns, also made the trip up from Denton.
The Oklahoma State roster which was outscored by an average score of 33-14 last season is all gone, with a roster overhaul on par with what Coach Prime did in Boulder in 2023. So, Oklahoma State will undoubtedly be better … but how much better?
We’ll know more on September 12th. The Cowboys will host Oregon that Saturday … a team which beat them 69-3 last season. Oklahoma State will also have games on the road against West Virginia and Houston before facing the Buffs at home on October 24th.
The Cowboys will win more than one game in 2026, but will they be good enough to get to a bowl? A win over the Buffs would go a long ways towards making that happen.
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— No. 5 … at Arizona State … Saturday, November 9th … Lindy’s No. 36 (7th in Big 12) … Athlon’s No. 35 (7th in the Big 12) … ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) No. 44 …
Kenny Dillingham enters his fourth season as the head coach in Tempe with an overall record of 22-17, with the Sun Devils finishing with an 8-5 record last fall.
This fall, the overwhelming majority of ASU starters and two-deep on both sides of the ball are unrecognizable from last season. Depth issues could become a factor by the time the Buffs come to town in early November, especially in the secondary.
The biggest question comes at quarterback, with Sam Leavitt taking his 16-4 record as a starter to LSU. His replacement is Cutter Boley, who started for Kentucky as a redshirt freshman. One of the star receivers on the team will be, of course, Omarion Miller, taking the same route from Boulder to Tempe that first-round NFL pick Jordyn Tyson made the season before.
There is only one returning starter along the offensive line, and only two total returning starters on defense … yet prognosticators have faith in Dillingham to make it work this fall.
The Sun Devils host Colorado on November 7th, which at least means the Buffs won’t have to play in the desert heat early in the season. Arizona State will also likely be out of the Big 12 title race by then. In addition to a difficult non-conference game on the road against Texas A&M, ASU will face conference favorites Texas Tech and BYU – both on the road – in a three week period leading up to the matchup against Colorado.
Arizona State beat up the Buffs pretty badly last November, 42-17. Have the Buffs improved enough to make this year’s game competitive?
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— No. 4 … at Georgia Tech … Thursday, September 3rd … Lindy’s No. 35 (6th in the ACC) … Athlon’s No. 41 (8th in the ACC) … ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) No. 48 …
Georgia Tech raced out to an 8-0 record last fall, including a 27-20 win against Colorado in Boulder in the 2025 season opener. By the end of October, the undefeated Yellow Jackets were ranked 8th in the country … but then the bottom fell out. Georgia Tech went on to lose four of its final five games, including a 25-21 Pop-Tarts Bowl loss to BYU.
Gone is ACC Player of the Year Haynes King, replaced at quarterback by Alberto Mendoza, whose main claim to fame to date is being the brother of Heisman-trophy winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza. The key to the offense may well be Michigan running back transfer Justice Haynes. When healthy, Haynes was one of the most effective running backs in the nation, with 857 yards rushing and ten touchdowns in eight games.
Georgia Tech head coach Brent Key is a former offensive lineman. Even with only two returning starters along the offensive line, Buff coaches will be well advised to look for the Yellow Jackets to try and pound the ball at the Buffs. Last season, Georgia Tech averaged almost 200 yards rushing per game, and that will be their calling card again in 2026.
On defense, there are questions. Georgia Tech has its fourth defensive coordinator in four years, and will face the Buffs with four new starters in the defensive backfield … and it’s not like last year’s group was good. Despite the 9-4 final record, the Yellow Jackets were ranked 97th in passing defense last fall. As a result, Game One of the 2026 season may come down to which offense has more success – Georgia Tech’s rushing offense, or CU’s Go-Go passing offense.
Georgia Tech has a major test in Week Two, taking on Tennessee on September 12th. I would give the Buffs an advantage here, with the Buffs returning home to face Weber State in their second game. Thing is, though, that CU will be facing Georgia Tech on a Thursday night in Atlanta, giving the Yellow Jackets an extra two days to prepare for Tennessee.
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— No. 3 … Houston … Friday, November 13th … Lindy’s No. 17 (3rd in the Big 12) … Athlon’s No. 19 (3rd in the Big 12) … ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) No. 35 …
Houston may be the best Big 12 team no one is talking about. Texas Tech and BYU have been getting the majority of the ink this off-season, but it would not be a surprise to see the Cougars in the Big 12 title game in December. Houston won ten games last fall, going a perfect 7-0 away from TDECU Stadium.
Quarterback Conner Weigman, who threw for 2,705 yards last season (25 touchdowns to nine interceptions), returns, as does his favorite target, All-Big 12 receiver Amare Thomas (67 catches for 966 yards and 12 touchdowns). Head coach Willie Fritz suggested this off-season that this may be his best-ever offensive line … which doesn’t bode well for Big 12 defenses.
There are some stars to replace on defense, but the Cougars have five returning starters, which is a better total than most teams in the Transfer Portal era.
The Game of the Year in the Big 12 may take place in Week Three. It will be loud in Lubbock on Friday, September 18th, when Houston comes to town (you may recall Texas Tech super donor Cody Campbell complaining about the Red Raiders only having six days to prepare, ignoring the fact that Houston, as the traveling team, actually has an even shorter week). The winner of that game will be the front-runner in the conference. If Houston wins that game, the next huge test for the Cougars will be another road game, with Houston facing Utah on the road in late October.
The CU/Houston game will be on a Friday night in Boulder … on Friday the 13th, in fact. Kickoff will be at 8:15 p.m., MT, or 9:15 p.m. for the visitors from the Central Time Zone.
It could be a cold night in mid-November at Folsom, which may be the best chance for the Buffs to keep the game close.
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— No. 2 … Utah … Saturday, October 17th … Lindy’s No. 22 (4th in the Big 12) … Athlon’s No. 20 (4th in the Big 12) … ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) No. 31 …
The bad news for Utah fans? The Utes are adjusting to a new head coach for the first time in 21 years, with Kyle Whittingham taking his talents to Michigan.
The good news? It would be difficult to have a more seamless transition for the program, with longtime defensive coordinator and head-coach-in-waiting Morgan Scalley taking over.
The Utes went 11-2 last fall, losing only to Big 12 title game participants Texas Tech and BYU. Dual-threat quarterback Devon Dampier is back, along with running back Wayshawn Parker. Last season, Parker ran for 981 yards – Dampier for 835. Gone are two first-round NFL Draft picks from the offensive line, but it would a surprise if there were to be a huge dropoff from an offense which was fourth in the nation both scoring offense (41.2 ppg.) and total offense (482.9 ypg.).
Morgan Scalley has been the defensive coordinator for the past ten years in Salt Lake City, so his defense – with Colton Swan officially taking over as coordinator – should not be an issue.
The jury is out as to whether Scalley will be the answer for Utah in the long term, but the short run – meaning the first five games of the season before the Utes come to Boulder in mid-October – should be an easy on ramp for the rookie head coach. Utah gets to play four of its first five games at home, with all three non-conference games played at Rice-Eccles. Idaho and Utah State will not present a challenge, with the lone Power Four game coming against an Arkansas team which went 2-10 in 2025. The Utes then open Big 12 play with a road game against an Iowa State team facing a complete rebuild and a home game against Kansas.
Which is a long way of saying that Utah will be 5-0, and likely ranked in the Top 15 in the nation, when the Utes confidently come to Boulder on October 17th.
Yuck.
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— No. 1 … Texas Tech … Saturday, October 3rd … Lindy’s No. 14th (1st in the Big 12) … Athlon’s No. 12 (1st in the Big 12) … ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) No. 10 …
Few programs this side of LSU had a more volatile off-season than did Texas Tech. If you are one of those college football fans who tune out the game between the national championship in January and the start of Fall Camp in August, feel free to Google “Brendan Sorsby saga” to get up to speed.
Go ahead … we’ll wait …
Long story short, Texas Tech will be relying on oft-injured quarterback Will Hammond to lead the Red Raiders back to the College Football Playoff. If Hammond can stay on the field, and be even modestly productive, Texas Tech will be the favorite to win the conference. There are five-star recruits and million-dollar transfers up and down the roster on both sides of the ball. While having Sorsby on the team would have aided Texas Tech’s chances at a deep playoff run, his absence won’t keep the Red Raiders from posting double digit wins.
Last season, the Red Raiders were 10th in the nation in total offense (461.4 ypg.) and third in the nation in total defense (258.3 ypg.). Texas Tech out-scored opponents by an average score of 39.4-11.8 … and bought enough talent this off-season to keep those numbers steady this fall.
Oh, and Texas Tech has perhaps the easiest schedule of any team which will open the season ranked in the Top 15. The Red Raiders miss both BYU and Utah in the regular season, leaving the home game against Houston on September 18th as perhaps the only obstacle between Texas Tech and an undefeated regular season.
The Red Raiders have only five road games on the schedule – Oregon State, Colorado, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, and Baylor – and will be heavily favored in all five.
Texas Tech comes to Boulder on October 3rd, sandwiched between home games against Sam Houston and Arizona State, so the Buffs don’t even have the luxury of having the Red Raiders coming off of, or looking forward to, a tough opponent.
Folsom Field will be raucous for the game against Texas Tech, but it will take more than a loud crowd to upset Texas Tech … even without Brendan Sorsby.
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… Previously Posted… “2026 Season: CU’s Six ‘Easiest’ Games” …
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2 Replies to “2026 Schedule: CU’s “Most Difficult” Games”
OSU, ASU and GT are all winnable if the Buffs are executing Go-Go ball! 😉
And, if they have the defense as promised by the coaches and players.
OSU’ QB’s numbers are as Stuart pointed out padded against a couple of teams and yet would still be close to 4,000 yards passing if those two teams were just as good as North Texas’ other opponents who they played that season. BUT, what would those numbers be against power four defenses?
The Buff’s also have many transfers who were leaders and who put up goods stats in a G6 conference… So there’s that. But still winnable I think, especially if the Buffs are as good as they can be with the Go-Go offense and the defense puts it all together.
ASU, is really going to depend on how both teams are doing before this game. A competitive game, compared to last year’s game would be good, but a win will be great and a sign that the Buffs are really good… Assuming the Buffs have a winning record with six (or at least 5) wins by November’s game.
And GT. Last year this was a winnable game for the Buffs… Even with the poor offensive play calling and a QB who just wasn’t 100% in sync with his teammates.
I’m really looking forward to seeing the new offense; opening night with all of the hoopla around it. Can the Buff’s execute it? I think the Buffs will definitely throw all of the new offense that they can or need to get this game and could surprise GT’s defense.
But everyone will see all or most of the Buff’s new offense on game one compared to teams playing cupcakes for the first game or two… Or three for the SEC!
The truckload of money from that loud mouth, self-appointed college football savior thrown at the tortilla tossers could not even buy one point in the CFP last year.