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Rankings and Ratings

October 9th

Colorado still getting no love from ESPN’s Football Power Index

... Note … this is the same column that last week said that CU was likely (according to the FPI) to finish 5-7, beating only Oregon State in the final eight games … 

From ESPN … There are 11 undefeated teams left in the FBS — eight in the Power 5 conferences and three in the American Athletic Conference. Not all undefeated records, though, are created equally. The 13 members of the College Football Playoff Selection Committee don’t reveal their first ranking until Oct. 30, but their task then and for six straight weeks afterward is to sort through comparable résumés and determine what separates teams when their records don’t.

Sort of like this …

The following are rankings of the remaining undefeated teams, starting with who has the most realistic chance to reach the CFP and why.

Long shots:

Colorado (5-0)

Remaining SOS: No. 31
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 20 at Washington
FPI says: The only game Colorado is favored to win is Oct. 27 versus Oregon State. The Buffaloes are an FPI underdog in six of their seven remaining games and have less than a 0.1 percent chance of winning out.
Playoff predictor says: If Colorado is an undefeated Pac-12 champ, it has a 0.0 percent chance of making the top four.

Bottom line: The Buffaloes would need to finish as an undefeated Pac-12 champ, as their nonconference strength of schedule ranks 119th in the FBS, and Washington is currently their only ranked opponent. Even if they do defy the odds and win out, the Buffaloes would need a lot of chaos around them in the rankings to be considered by the committee.

CBS ranking … CU up to No. 20

From CBS Sports … We are six weeks through the college football season, and several high-profile teams have zoomed closer to the front of the pack after emphatic victories. Notre Dame jumped to No. 5 of the CBS Sports 129 after a dominating 45-23 win a Virginia Tech, which kept College Football Playoff dreams intact for the Fighting Irish. Texas probably needs a little help to get into that conversation, but the 48-45 upset over rival Oklahoma earned the Longhorns a No. 8 ranking, bragging rights and shook up what’s looking like a wild Big 12 championship race.

LSU took a tumble out of the top five to No. 14 after falling to Florida 27-19 in The Swamp; the Gators moved up to No. 13, one spot ahead of the Tigers. Then there’s the Sooners, which fell to No. 12 after the loss in the Red River Showdown.

From the Pac-12 … 

10. Washington

16. Oregon

20. Colorado

27. Stanford

31. Washington State

35. Utah

38. USC

54. Arizona State

75. Arizona

80. California

105. Nebraska 

110. Colorado State

113. UCLA

118. Oregon State

Sports Illustrated Pac-12 Bowl projections:

Rose … Washington v. Wisconsin

Alamo … Oregon v. Texas Tech

Holiday … Colorado v. Michigan

Redbox … Stanford v. Northwestern

Sun … Washington State v. Boston College

Las Vegas … USC v. Utah State

Cheez-It … Cal v. Baylor

First Responders (replacement) … Arizona State v. North Texas

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October 8th

Buffs make a jump in ESPN Bowl projections

Kyle Bonagura moved CU up to the Alamo Bowl from the Holiday Bowl (actually a jump of two spots, with the Pac-12 losing a second New Year’s Day bowl projection – Stanford falling out of the mix)

Mitch Sherman moved CU up three spots in the Pac-12 lineup, from the Las Vegas Bowl to the Holiday Bowl.

ESPN Pac-12 Bowl projections (two pickers):

Rose … Washington v. Penn State

Alamo … Colorado v. Oklahoma State or Oklahoma State or Oregon

Holiday …  Oregon v. Iowa or Michigan v. Colorado

RedBox … Washington State v. Northwestern or Iowa v. Utah

Sun … USC v. Duke or Virginia Tech v. Washington State

Las Vegas … Utah v. Boise State or Stanford v. Fresno State

Cheez-It … Stanford v. Fresno State or Iowa State v. USC

Birmingham Bowl (replacement) … Arizona State v. Houston

First Responders’ Bowl (replacement) … Arizona State v. North Texas

Military Bowl (replacement) … Cal v. Temple

CBS Bowl projections – Buffs actually move down a spot

From CBS Sports … Jerry Palm, like ESPN, now projects the Pac-12 to only have one New Year’s Six bowl bid. That being the case, Palm moved teams down a spot, with CU moving down from the Sun Bowl to the Las Vegas Bowl:

Rose BowlJan. 1Pasadena, Calif.Big Ten vs. Pac-12Penn State vs. Washington
Alamo BowlDec. 28San Antonio, Tex.Big 12 vs. Pac-12TCU vs. Utah
Holiday BowlDec. 31San Diego, Calif.Big Ten vs. Pac-12Iowa vs. Stanford
Redbox BowlDec. 31Santa Clara, Calif.Big Ten vs. Pac-12Northwestern vs. USC
Sun BowlDec. 31El Paso, Tex.ACC vs. Pac-12Duke vs. Oregon
Las Vegas BowlDec. 15Las Vegas, Nev.Mountain West vs. Pac-12Boise State vs. Colorado
Cheez-It BowlDec. 26Tempe, Ariz.Big 12 vs. Pac-12Utah State+ vs. Wash. State
First Responder BowlDec. 26Dallas, Tex.Big Ten vs. ACC/C-USABYU+ vs. Arizona State+
Armed Forces BowlDec. 22Fort Worth, Tex.American vs. Big 12Army+ vs. California+

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October 7th

Colorado up to No. 19 in Associated Press poll

From CBS Sports … Florida and Texas are moving up the college football rankings with some serious momentum after rivalry wins in Week 6. In the AP Top 25, the Gators were one of the biggest movers after beating LSU, surging up eight spots to 14. That was only bested by the Longhorns, who jumped 10 spots to No. 9 after beating Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry.

Alabama remains the No. 1 team in the country, followed by Georgia, Ohio State and Clemson. Notre Dame jumped into the top five thanks to LSU’s loss, and Penn State now enters the top 10 thanks to spots opened up by Auburn and Oklahoma’s losses.

Other notable movements include Auburn dropping 13 spots to No. 21 and the AAC combo of USF and Cincinnati making their 2018 poll debuts as they head into Week 7 with undefeated records.

 

1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Clemson
5. Notre Dame
6. West Virginia
7. Washington … up three spots from last week
8. Penn State
9. Texas
10. UCF
11. Oklahoma
12. Michigan
13. LSU
14. Florida
15. Wisconsin
16. Miami (FL)
17. Oregon … up one spot from last week
18. Kentucky
19. Colorado … up two spots from last week
20. North Carolina State
21. Auburn
22. Texas A&M
23. South Florida
24. Mississippi State
25. Cincinnati

Others Receiving Votes: Iowa (4-1) 87; Stanford (4-2) 59; Washington State (5-1) 46; San Diego State (4-1) 24; TCU (3-2) 20; Appalachian State (3-1) 11; Utah (3-2) 9; Utah State (4-1) 5; South Carolina (3-2) 2; Hawaii (6-1) 1

USA Today Coaches’ Poll

1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Clemson
5. Notre Dame
6. West Virginia
7. Washington … up three spots from last week
8. Penn State
9. UCF
10. Wisconsin
11. Oklahoma
12. LSU
13. Michigan
14. Texas
15. Miami (FL)
16. Florida
17. Oregon … up one spot from last week
18. Colorado … up four spots from last week
19. North Carolina State
20. Kentucky
21. Auburn
22. Texas A&M
23. South Florida
24. Stanford … down ten spots from last week
25. Cincinnati

Others Receiving Votes: Washington State (5-1) 113; Iowa (4-1) 89; Mississippi State (4-2) 67; Appalachian State (3-1) 38; TCU (3-2) 33; San Diego State (4-1) 25; Utah (3-2) 12; Utah State (4-1) 11; South Carolina (3-2) 10; Duke (4-1) 8; Troy (5-1) 8; Syracuse (4-2) 6; Hawaii (6-1) 6; Boise State (3-2) 6; Virginia Tech (3-2) 2; Michigan State (3-2) 1; Fresno State (4-1) 1; Army West Point (3-2) 1; UAB (4-1) 1

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One Reply to “Rankings and Ratings”

  1. It is pretty classic. I can already hear the narrative if/when CU beats SC. Something like? It’s still hard to see how good they are or not. After all, who have they beaten? ASU a 3-3 team may have been their biggest test so far. SC has shown they’re not playing up to expectations, only getting three points against Stanford. Barely beating Wazzu, etc.

    How amazing would be it to see CU run the table, and also win the Pac 12?

    Granted, not likely. But, certainly possible.

    Having said that, I don’t think they’re the team that could compete w/ the likes of ‘Bama, Clemson, or OSU (well, maybe OSU) yet (they need a line full of studs on both sides of the ball to get there) but? That’s why they play the games.

    And, regardless, I’d sure love to see that happen this year.

    Go Buffs.

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