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First Look: Big 12 Mountain Time Zone Teams
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Spring practices have yet to begin. Preseason magazines are still four months away. Fall Camp is a full six months from opening.
So … naturally … it must be time to take our first look at the Big 12.
For the first time in years, rosters are largely in place (thanks to the elimination of the second Transfer Portal window). The Transfer Portal still contains thousands of names, but few of those players who may still join rosters will significantly alter the fortunes of a Power Four team.
With a tad more stability in the ranks, there are plenty of predictions out in cyberspace for fans to review. We know, for example, from the “Way Too Early Top 25” projections, who will be the favorites in the Big 12 race (Texas Tech; BYU) … But how will the rest of the conference shake out?
Over the next two weekends, we’ll sift through the 16-team conference, and see what the Buffs will be up against this fall. Looking at the rosters and the schedules, we’ll put the teams into one of four tiers:
- Tier One: Big 12 conference title contenders, and, by extension, the College Football Playoff;
- Tier Two: Potential conference title contenders, but missing an element or two. A winning season and a bowl bid are likely;
- Tier Three: A winning season is a realistic goal, but conference title contention is not in the offing; and
- Tier Four: Regrouping, rebuilding, starting over. Wins will come rarely, and will need to be savored.
Spoiler Alert … With a bulging middle class, the Big 12 doesn’t have four teams neatly fitting into each Tier. Members in Tier One and Tier Four will number fewer than those finding themselves in Tier Two and Tier Three.
This weekend, we’ll take a look at the Arizona and Utah schools. We’ll then pivot to CU’s four former Big 8 foes, then the Texas schools, and finally to the eastern time zone Big 12 teams.
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Arizona
2025 season
- Record … 9-4, 6-3 … (30th in the final AP poll)
- Rankings; offense … Total offense: 42nd; Scoring offense: 31st
- Rankings; defense … Total defense: 19th; Scoring defense: 21st
Off-season
- Recruiting rankings … 41st; 7th in the Big 12
- Transfer Portal … 51st; 11th in the Big 12
- Overall … 45th; 8th in the Big 12
2026 Schedule
- Non-conference: Northern Arizona; Northern Illinois; at Washington State
- Big 12: Toughest – at BYU; at Arizona State; at Texas Tech … Easiest – at West Virginia; Cincinnati
- v. Colorado … The teams won’t meet in 2026 (for the first time since CU joined the Pac-12 in 2011)
Thoughts … Arizona had a breakthrough season under second-year head coach Brent Brennan, with the 9-4 campaign earning Brennan a contract extension. The Wildcats more than doubled their win total from the year before, surprising many. Brennan led the Wildcats to a 23-7 win over rival Arizona State, reaching No. 17 in the College Football Playoff rankings before losing to SMU in the Holiday Bowl.
Quarterback Noah Fifita returns for what seems like a fifth season, after posting an impressive 2025 campaign. Fifita had over 3,200 passing yards, with 29 touchdowns to only six interceptions. Though several stars on defense are moving on to the NFL, Arizona has a number of starters returning in the front seven, and has added some quality transfers on offense.
Pre-Spring Ranking … Tier Two. Everything you would want is in place for Arizona to make a strong run for a Big 12 championship berth – a returning starter at quarterback; momentum from a strong 2025 season; and very few devastating losses through the Transfer Portal.
What is keeping me from putting Arizona into Tier One, though, is the schedule. An early conference opener (September 12th) at BYU will tell us a great deal about the Wildcats. Arizona must also go on the road to face the other Big 12 co-favorite, Texas Tech, with other conference games against Utah and rival Arizona State.
Arizona could be just as good as last year’s team, or perhaps even better, but still fall just short of a title game berth.
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Arizona State
2025 season
- Record … 8-5; 6-3 in Big 12 … Lost to Duke in the Sun Bowl
- Rankings; offense … Total offense: 30th; Scoring offense: 80th
- Rankings; defense … Total defense: 57th; Scoring defense: 65th
Off-season
- Recruiting rankings … 39th; 5th in the Big 12
- Transfer Portal … 15th; 3rd in the Big 12
- Overall … 27th; 3rd in the Big 12
2026 Schedule
- Non-conference: Morgan State; at Texas A&M; Hawai’i
- Big 12: Toughest: at Texas Tech; at BYU; at Arizona … Easiest: Kansas; Oklahoma State
- v. Colorado: Arizona State will host CU in Tempe on November 7th
Thoughts … The biggest win for Arizona State this off-season may have been keeping head coach Kenny Dillingham in Tempe. Dillingham was tied to several head coaching openings, including Penn State, Florida, and LSU, and was considered a leading candidate for the Michigan job. Instead, Dillingham signed a contract extension, and forced the ASU administration to cough up more funds for assistant coaches and NIL.
Arizona State did lose quarterback Sam Leavitt to LSU, but is bringing in Michigan transfer Mikey Keene and Kentucky transfer Cutter Boley to compete with four-star freshman recruit Jake Fetty for the starting position. A top 15 Transfer Portal class, together with a number of returning starters and a decent recruiting Class, give Sun Devil fans hope of returning to the Big 12 title game after a year absence.
Pre-Spring Ranking … Tier Two. Like Arizona, the Sun Devils have to play both Texas Tech and BYU, with both of those games on the road. Before testing themselves against the top of the Big 12, though, Arizona State will have to take on Texas A&M in College Station. Dillingham talks a great game, but potential losses to Texas Tech and BYU may keep the Sun Devils out of the national tournament.
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BYU
2025 season
- Record … 12-2; 8-1 in Big 12 … Lost to Texas Tech twice, including in the Big 12 title game
- Rankings; offense … Total offense: 54th; Scoring offense: 33rd
- Rankings; defense … Total defense: 35th; Scoring defense: 19th
Off-season
- Recruiting rankings … 21st; 2nd in the Big 12
- Transfer Portal … 41st; 7th in the Big 12
- Overall … 24th; 2nd in the Big 12
2026 Schedule
- Non-conference: Utah Tech; at Colorado State; Notre Dame
- Big 12: Toughest: at TCU; at Utah … Easiest: Iowa State; Cincinnati
- v. Colorado: The teams won’t meet in 2026; the teams will meet in Provo in 2027
Thoughts … Just as Arizona State fans are celebrating retaining their head coach, BYU fans have to be breathing a sigh of relief that their head coach didn’t trade in the blue-and-white of BYU for the blue-and-white of Penn State.
On the verge of taking the Penn State job, BYU head coach Kalani had a change of heart (and a significant boost to his wallet), staying in Provo. The team he stayed with is perhaps the front runner in the Big 12 for 2026.
The Cougars may be on of the most undervalued team in college football after going 23-4 over the past two years. Both of BYU’s losses were to Texas Tech this past year, but a win in the Pop-Tarts Bowl helped elevate them to a No. 11 final AP Top 25 ranking. Now, running back LJ Martin is back as one of the top rushers in the nation. Quarterback Bear Bachmeier should also take another step as a second-year player. Retaining linebacker Isaiah Glasker, safety Faletau Satuala and defensive tackle Keanu Tanuvasa sets up one of the best units of the Kalani Sitake era, and one that should end up in Arlington again.
Pre-Spring Ranking … Tier One. The schedule sets up well for a team looking to make a run for the Big 12 title. An early home game against Arizona could be tricky, and there are road games against TCU and Utah, but the rest of the schedule is manageable. A a win at home against Notre Dame on October 17th could propel BYU to new heights in the polls, with a home game against Arizona State on Halloween perhaps the most difficult game in the second half of the season.
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Utah
2025 season
- Record … 11-2; 7-2 in Big 12 … Lost to Texas Tech and BYU; defeated Nebraska in the Las Vegas Bowl
- Rankings; offense … Total offense: 4th; Scoring offense: 4th
- Rankings; defense … Total defense: 60th; Scoring defense: 17th
Off-season
- Recruiting rankings … 35th; 4th in the Big 12
- Transfer Portal … 46th; 9th in the Big 12
- Overall … 36th; 5th in the Big 12
2026 Schedule
- Non-conference: Idaho; Arkansas; Utah State
- Big 12: Toughest: Houston; BYU; at TCU … Easiest: Kansas; West Virginia
- v. Colorado: The teams will meet in Boulder on October 17th
Thoughts … The last time Kyle Whittingham wasn’t the head coach at Utah was 2004, when Urban Meyer was the head coach for the Utes. Whittingham was an institution in Salt Lake City (despite being a BYU grad), going 177-88 in his 21 seasons.
Taking over is Morgan Scalley, who has been a head coach in waiting for the past several years. Scalley is a Utah man through and through, having played for Utah … and then never leaving. While continuity is important, Scalley has exactly zero coaching experience anywhere else in the country.
Whittingham surprised Utah fans by taking the head coaching job at Michigan … then infuriated Utah fans by taking with him some of the best Utah players, including four-star cornerback Salesi Moa, four-star wide receiver JJ Buchanan, four-star cornerback Smith Snowden, and four-star All-American edge rusher John Henry Daley. Whittingham also took a good number of assistants with him, including offensive coordinator Jason Beck and defensive coordinator Jay Hill.
Pre-Spring Ranking … Tier Two. I don’t see an immediate drop off for Utah. The Utes won 11 games last year, and there hasn’t been a complete drain of talent from the roster. New head coach Morgan Scalley certainly provides stability, and the scheduling gods were certainly looking down upon Scalley when the 2026 calendar was announced. Utah has three non-conference home games to start the season – Idaho, Arkansas (2-10 in 2025), and Utah State. The Utes then face an Iowa State which has all of its best players now playing for Penn State, then finish out the first half of the season at home against Kansas and on the road against Colorado. It would not be a surprise to see Utah be not as good as last season … and still be 5-0 heading to Boulder on October 17th.
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First Quarter Grades – The Four Corner schools:
- Tier One – BYU
- Tier Two – Arizona; Utah; Arizona State
- Tier Three – none
- Tier Four – none
Conclusion … While the Big 12 newbies haven’t completely taken over the Big 12, they have been making some noise. Arizona State won the Big 12 in its first season as a new conference member, and the four teams combined to go 27-9 in Big 12 play last season.
It would not be a huge surprise to see Arizona State return to the Big 12 title stage in 2026, but losing Sam Leavitt to LSU may prove to be too significant a loss. Arizona (9-4) and Utah (11-2) had impressive 2025 campaigns, but may be hard pressed to get to those win totals in 2026.
BYU finished last season as the No. 11 team in the nation last fall, and will start 2026 as a ranked team. If the Cougars can take down Notre Dame at home in mid-October, they could be carrying the banner for the Big 12 the remainder of the season.
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Up next … CU’s former Big 8 rivals will take center stage, with a preview of Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State …
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6 Replies to “First Look: Big 12 – Mountain Time Zone Teams”
As I read about these coaches having success and staying I begin to be frustrated about Coach Prime and last year. Do I just need to accept that Prime being out and recovering during the spring and summer were that impactful? I read your preview and you were not so rosy on our prospects this year. I love that Coach Prime got attention back on CU and Travis was a joy to watch. But other coaches are figuring out how to navigate this new environment and I believe it is fair to believe that Prime should as well.
In my 33 years as a Buff fan, I have yet to ever read “… and the scheduling gods were certainly looking down upon CU when the [insert year] calendar was announced.
Buffs are always going to have to earn wins the hard way.
If CU and Coach Prime can make it through 2026 in tact, the scheduling gods may be looking down on the Buffs next year.
Thanks to a cancelled home-and-home non-conference matchup with Houston (now a conference game), CU has three non-conference games next year – Colgate, Northwestern, and Northern Illinois. CU also misses Texas Tech, Utah, and Kansas State.
Pray for a 6-6 season this fall, and retention of some of the best players (including Julian Lewis), and the scheduling gods may look upon CU with favor in 2027.
I like your optimism, Stuart… maybe 2027 will be a great season.
Stuart just informed me of the roster evisceration at Utah by Whittingham not to mention his OC who just made the jump from NM to MI. I guess tradition and loyalty just evaporated on UT in todaty’s money first atmosphere. I don’t follw these things as much as I used to and I see it getting worse but I will notice how Whittingham does in MI in what I see as an age related “crisis.” The Michigan fans I have met are real close to being as obnoxious as cobb fans.
I worked in a profession that wasn’t as thrilling and was also downright mental drudgery. I wasn’t all that reluctant to let it go. I am still amazed at folks who live in a pressure packed world, have already made plenty of money and can’t let it go and relax or even try other things.
I was expecting Whittingham to retire to “his ski in ski out home at his favorite resort”, he’s an avid skier. I kinda figured after a full career at Utah, he’s made millions and with the changes to college ball, NIL & ETC. that he’d enjoyed retirement.
Then a big dog comes along with deep pockets and understandably he takes the big money.
But you’re right, at a certain age when is enough, enough? Extra millions on top of millions, vs enjoying life while you can?