“T.I.P.S.” for CU v. No. 25 BYU

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Colorado v. BYU: “T.I.P.S.” for Buffs v. No. 25 Cougars

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Saturday, December 28th, 2024 … No. 17 BYU 36, No. 23 Colorado 14 … Alamo Bowl, San Antonio, Texas.

The Cougars jumped out to a 20-0 halftime lead, never looking back. Buffs are held to nine first downs, 210 total yards of offense, including a grand total of two yards rushing on 19 attempts.

And that was with Shedeur and Travis.

Nine months later …

Saturday, September 27th, 2025 … No. 25 BYU at Colorado … Folsom Field, Boulder, Colorado.

With the turnover on the rosters on both teams, there are plenty of players who will take the field Saturday night who weren’t on the rosters nine months ago.

But there are plenty of players on both rosters who did face one another five games ago … and most of the coaches.

Will that make a difference? Will there be some over confidence on BYU’s side of the field? Some lack of confidence on CU’s sideline? Some extra incentive for the Buffs?

Let’s find out …

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“T.I.P.S” for Colorado v. No. 25 BYU – Saturday, 8:15 p.m., MT, ESPN

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T – Talent

To be clear, BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff wasn’t the reason the Cougars crushed the Buffs in the Alamo Bowl. Retzlaff had only 151 yards passing last December in San Antonio, with no touchdowns and two interceptions.

And to be clear, if BYU beats CU on Saturday, Jake Retzlaff won’t be the reason, either. In case you missed it, Retzlaff left BYU this past summer after admitting to violating the school’s honor code.

While Retzlaff has moved on to Tulane, the new quarterback for the undefeated Cougars is freshman Bear Bachmeier, who has completed 42-of-63 passes for 518 yards, with four touchdowns and no interceptions. Bachmeier also has four of BYU’s nine rushing touchdowns. Bachmeier’s favorite target has been senior wide receiver Chase Roberts, who has 11 catches for 185 yards and a touchdown.

The BYU rushing attack is led by junior LJ Martin, who already has almost half of his rushing total for all of 2024. Martin has 40 carries for 342 yards (a healthy 8.6 yards/carry), with one touchdown. Not only does Martin have over 100 yards rushing in each of BYU’s first three games, he has runs of over 40 yards in each game (49 yards v. Portland State; 47 v. Stanford; and 41 v. East Carolina).

So … Goal No. 1 for the CU defense Saturday night: keep Martin from tearing off a 40-yard run.

The BYU defense has also posted very impressive numbers through three games to date. The Cougars are second in the nation in total defense, giving up only 205.3 yards per game, and tied with Ohio State for No. 1 in the country in scoring defense, giving up only 5.3 points per game.

Eyebrow-raising numbers? Yes.

Scary numbers? Not necessarily.

In a 69-0 wipeout of Portland State to open the season, BYU not only got the shutout, but held the Vikings to 51 yards of total offense. Hapless Stanford then scored only three points, and came up with only 161 yards of offense in a 27-3 BYU victory.

Perhaps more telling for Buff fans hoping CU’s offense can be successful this weekend … In last Saturday’s 34-13 loss to BYU, East Carolina only had one touchdown … but did have 404 yards of total offense. Why is the three-touchdown spread so high, when the yards gained by the Pirates were impressive?

Well, the Pirates gave up a four-yard interception return for a touchdown to give the Cougars six easy points, and that came after throwing an interception in the end zone (after a 14-play drive) when it was still a 6-3 game in the second quarter.

Moral of the story: BYU has a very good defense, and will be a real challenge for the CU offense … but this is not (or at least not yet) a defense which you can consider to be one of the top ten defenses in the country.

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I – Intangibles

Chips on their shoulders … You would think that college football players wouldn’t need much in the way of extra motivation to play a Big 12 conference game. There are plenty of reasons for athletes to want to do their best … Not wanting to let down their teammates … Wanting to keep their spot on the roster … Or even just to keep their NIL money coming in …

But, college football, as much or more than any other major sport, is subject to the emotion of the moment.

Over half of the CU roster – and almost all of CU’s coaches – were wearing black-and-gold five games ago when Colorado was embarrassed by BYU in the Alamo Bowl.

Who gets the advantage from that lopsided 36-14 BYU victory? Is there extra confidence in Provo that they have CU’s schemes figured out, and can handle anything the Buff coaching staff can come up with? Or will there be extra incentive in the CU locker room, wanting to show the world that the Alamo Bowl was an aberration?

We’ll find out soon enough.

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P – Preparation/Schedule

Back-to-Back … Colorado, with seven home games, doesn’t have to play back-to-back road games this fall. BYU, meanwhile, has back-to-back road games twice this fall, including the game in Boulder this weekend.

Last weekend, BYU had to travel to the eastern time zone, playing a night game in Greenville, North Carolina, to face East Carolina. With a 7:30 p.m., ET, kickoff, the Cougars wouldn’t have gotten back to Provo until early Sunday morning.

With a travel day on Friday, BYU’s coaches and players get one less day to prepare for Colorado.

That being said, BYU has also had its first bye week, coming the week before the East Carolina game, so presumably the Cougars are healthier and more rested overall than the Buffs, who have been going straight since the first week of August.

Neither scheduling quirk will make much of a difference Saturday … but you never know.

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Injury reports … This entry will be a fixture here on the website now that we are into Big 12 conference play. But … This week, and every week from here on, there will be reports on players in the following categories: “Out”; “Doubtful”; “Questionable”; and “Available”. The CU/BYU injury report can be found here Wednesday at 8:00 p.m., MT.

We’ll see who is on CU’s first report, but Coach Prime, at his Tuesday press conference, indicated that offensive linemen Jordan Seaton and Zy Crisler, who both were injured and missed time during the Wyoming game, will be back. On the other hand, Coach Prime also hinted at a shuffling in the running back room, hinting that Simeon Price and Dekalon Taylor were both still hurting.

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Missing the Sunshine … Not a fan of late night games? Neither is Coach Prime.

But, for the fourth time in five games, the Buffs will be playing under the lights (next Saturday’s game against TCU will make it five out of six, with a 5:30 p.m., MT, kickoff).

The Buffs began practicing at night last week, with two evening practices. It may have helped against Wyoming (it certainly didn’t hurt), and will be repeated this week as the Buffs prepare for another 8:15 p.m., MT, kickoff.

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S – Statistics 

Kick Returns … With four kickoff returns going for 112 yards against Wyoming, freshman wide receiver Quentin Gibson has come thisclose to breaking a return for a touchdown.

It’s worth keeping an eye on Gibson, and his return totals. To date, Gibson – and CU – are 31st in the nation in kick returns, averaging 25.91 yards per return.

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CU’s rushing defense is offensive … Last season, Kent State was last in the nation in rushing defense, giving up 264.9 yards per game. Against Georgia Tech, the Colorado defense surrendered 320 yards rushing. That was good enough to rank CU 132nd out of 134 teams nationally.

With that huge total, it’s going to take some exceptional defensive line play to bring CU into even an average rush defense numbers.

In giving up 165 yards rushing to Wyoming, the Buffs finally got their season average under 200 yards, but CU still has a long way to go … below is CU’s game-by-game numbers, with the new season average, and the new season national ranking:

• Georgia Tech (320; 320.0; 132nd) … Delaware (84; 202.0; 121st) … Houston (209; 204.3, 123rd) … Wyoming (165; 194.5; 121st)

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Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics … As noted, BYU is second in the nation in total defense; tied for first in the nation in scoring defense.

But the Cougars’ numbers are a bit skewed, based upon teams BYU has played. Compare CU’s and BYU’s opponent records to date:

• BYU … Portland State (0-4) … Stanford (1-3) … East Carolina (2-2) … 3-9, with only one of those wins coming against a Power Four team (Stanford has a win over Boston College. East Carolina’s wins are over Coastal Carolina and Campbell);
• Colorado … No 16 Georgia Tech (4-0) … Delaware (3-1) … Houston (3-0) … Wyoming (2-2) … 12-3, with two of the three losses coming against the Buffs. Wyoming’s other loss was to Utah).

Does that mean that BYU’s numbers might be a bit inflated, when adjusted for opponents and CU’s numbers might be a bit underappreciated?

It will be up to the Buffs to turn the tables.

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Prediction … 

Which Buff team will show up Saturday night?

The team which stunk up the field against Houston, or the team which played much better against Wyoming?

Probably somewhere in between.

Kaidon Salter and the CU offense gave the Buff Nation hope about what is possible from the CU offense. Salter made plays with his arm – and his legs – in leading the Buffs to almost 500 yards of total offense.

The CU defense, meanwhile, had a strong gameplan to open the game against Wyoming. Even with three pass interference penalties (all on third down), giving the ball back to the Cowboy defense three times in the first quarter, Wyoming had zero total yards of offense into the early part of the second quarter.

A small sample size of success, but enough to at least give CU fans hope for playing with – and perhaps beating – nationally ranked teams.

I have confidence that CU will knock off a ranked team this fall. The Buffs have enough talent to make that happen.

Will it happen this weekend?

I’ve picked CU to win every game so far this season, and have been disappointed half the time.

This is my first pick against the Buffs. I very much hope to be wrong, but I’m afraid this game will end like the Kansas State game last season, and the Georgia Tech game four weeks ago … CU plays – at times – well enough to win, but in the end, it’s the visitors who do just enough to emerge with a win.

Prediction … No. 25 BYU 24, Colorado 20

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2025 Predictions (2-2 Straight up; 2-2 Against the spread) …

• Colorado 27, Georgia Tech 23 … Actual: Georgia Tech 27, Colorado 20
• Colorado 38, Delaware 13 … Actual: Colorado 31, Delaware 7
• Colorado 24, Houston 20 … Actual: Houston 36, Colorado 20
• Colorado 27, Wyoming 13 … Actual: Colorado 37, Wyoming 20

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2024 Predictions … (Straight up: 10-3; Against the Spread: 10-3) …
2023 Predictions … (Straight up: 8-4; Against the Spread: 7-5) …
2022 Predictions … (Straight up: 10-2; Against the Spread: 9-3) …
2021 Predictions … (Straight up: 9-3; Against the Spread: 7-5) …

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This post, about the BYU game, from the 2025 Season, is filed under Article.
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