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Colorado v. Arizona: “T.I.P.S.” for CU’s attempt at redemption
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In the Coach Prime era at CU, the Buffs are 1-1 against Arizona. Two years ago, in the final season of the Pac-12, Arizona came to Boulder as the No. 22 team in the nation, and left with a walk-off field goal and a 34-31 victory. Last season, in the first season for both teams in the new Big 12, the Buffs left Tucson with a 34-7 victory.
For CU’s 2025 Homecoming game, the Wildcats return to Boulder, with the Buffs facing Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita for the third time. Arizona is 4-3, 1-3, with the Wildcats having lost three of its four games.
Advantage, Colorado?
Not really.
Such was the debacle of CU’s 53-7 loss to Utah that struggling Arizona has been installed as a 5.5-point road favorite for CU’s Homecoming.
Will the road team win for the third straight time in the series?
Let’s find out …
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“T.I.P.S” for Colorado v. Arizona – Saturday, 5:00 p.m., MT, FS1*
* If the World Series doesn’t go seven games, the CU game will be on Fox. If there is a game seven, it will stay on FS1
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T – Talent
There should be no surprises when Arizona’s offense takes the field Saturday.
Quarterback Noah Fifita is in his third year as starter, and is having a solid season in 2025. Against the Buffs in Folsom in 2023, Fifita threw for 214 yards and two touchdowns, leading the Wildcats on an 11-play, game-winning walk off field goal drive.
Last season, in Tucson, Fifita was held to 138 yards passing, with one touchdown and one interception, as the Buffs rolled to a 34-7 victory.
Unfortunately for the Buff Nation, this season Fifita is playing much more like he did in 2023 (25 touchdowns; nine interceptions) than he did in 2024 (18 touchdowns; 12 interceptions). This fall, Fifita to date has 17 touchdowns to only four interceptions.
Gone is All-American wide receiver Tetairoa McMillian, but the 2025 Arizona receiver corps is holding its own. Javin Whatley leads the Wildcats with 32 catches for 370 yards and three touchdowns, with at least three catches in each of the last five games. But keep an eye on Tre Spivey. Spivey has only ten catches on the season (for 223 yards), but five of his ten catches have gone for touchdowns.
Arizona’s rushing offense, meanwhile, is not very good.
How do we know the Wildcats are struggling to run the ball? We know they are not very good because the Wildcats (88th nationally; 142.1 yards/game) rank behind even Colorado (84th; 143.3 yards/game) in rushing offense.
That’s not very good.
Junior running back Kedrick Reescano, who missed time earlier in the season due to injury, had 13 carries for 90 yards against BYU two games ago, but was held to 32 yards on 11 carries in Arizona’s most recent game against Houston. Texas State transfer Ismail Mahdi, who had over 1,300 yards rushing last season for the Bobcats, leads the Wildcats in rushing for the season, with 445 yards on 77 carries, but Mahdi has been limited to only 13 total carries in Arizona’s past two games.
Shut down the running game, contain Fifita (Arizona is 109th in the nation in sacks allowed), and limit big plays in the passing game … and you can beat Arizona.
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I – Intangibles
Tough losses taking a toll? … There has been a great deal of discussion the past few days about how demoralizing last weekend’s loss to Utah was to the Buffs and their fans.
Getting blown out is tough, but is it tougher than seeing your Big 12 title run dreams crushed by two consecutive late losses?
Two games ago, Arizona had a ten-point lead late at home against BYU. With just over four minutes left in the game, BYU kicked a field goal to make it a one score game. The Wildcats quickly went three-and-out, allowing BYU to score a game-tying touchdown with 19 seconds remaining. Arizona would go on to lose to BYU, 33-27, in double overtime.
In Arizona’s last game, the Wildcats traveled to Houston. Arizona was down two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, but came back to tie the game, 28-28, with five minutes remaining. Houston though, took the ensuing kickoff and chewed up the remaining game clock, kicking a game-winning 41-yard field goal as time expired.
Arizona is coming off a bye week, with an extra week to contemplate what might have been … 6-1, 3-1 instead of 4-3, 1-3.
Fair question: Will the two close losses work against the Wildcats, now 4-3 and out of the Big 12 race? Or will the close games against two quality opponents give the players extra confidence and determination as they head off to Boulder?
I guess we’ll find out.
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In search of six … Arizona finished 4-8 last season, in the first year under new head coach Brent Brennan. This past off-season, there were murmurings that Brennan may not have been the answer, especially since he replaced Jedd Fisch, who had led the Wildcats to a 10-3 record the year before.
Then, the Wildcats opened the 2025 campaign with a 3-0 record, and all was (almost) forgiven.
Since then, however, Arizona has gone 1-3, with the only victory coming over hapless Oklahoma State, a team which had already fired Mike Gundy by the time Arizona got to them.
Heading into November with a 4-3 record, the “Search for Six” is on in Tucson. While getting to bowl eligibility after starting 3-0 may not seem a satisfying season, a bowl bid and a winning season would definitely show progress after last fall’s 4-8 campaign.
Arizona has five games to win two. After CU, the Wildcats have potentially winnable home games against Kansas and Baylor, with likely losses on the road against Cincinnati and Arizona State.
A win over CU does not guarantee Arizona six wins and bowl eligibility, but a fifth victory would sure make the rest of November easier.
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P – Preparation/Schedule
Bye Week Benefits … Arizona has already had both of its bye weeks for the season, and will now play five games in November, starting on November 1st against Colorado.
Arizona went into its first bye week on a high. The Wildcats had a 3-0 record, including a win (in a previously scheduled non-conference game) over Kansas State.
After a week off, the 3-0 Wildcats traveled to Ames to face Iowa State.
The result? The Wildcats came out flat against the Cyclones, falling behind 22-0 in the first half before settling for a 39-14 loss.
Buff fans can only hope the Wildcats come out equally flat against the Buffs after their most recent bye week … the Buffs certainly know what that feels like.
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Injury reports … Every Wednesday, at 8:00 p.m., MT, the Big 12 “Player Availability Reports” are posted. Each team is required to reports on player in the following categories: “Out”; “Doubtful”; “Questionable”; and “Available”. The CU/Arizona injury report can be found here Wednesday night.
For the Utah game, CU’s injury report was a mixed bag, with 17 players listed as being “Out” in the initial report, but only four listed as “Out” the next day.
What happened?
There were no miraculous healings. CU, taking flak from continuously having the longest injury list, finally decided to exclude from the list players who were injured and out for the season, and/or who have yet to play this season.
I’m curious to see what the Buffs come up with Wednesday night for this week’s report.
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Not Road Tested … Kickoff for the CU/Arizona game will be on the 1st day of November, but the game will be only the third road contest for the Wildcats this fall.
Arizona lost both of its previous two road games this season (39-14 at Iowa State; 31-28 at Houston).
Truth be told, Arizona hasn’t won a road game since September, 2024, in Salt Lake City against Utah. Overall, the Wildcats have lost their last five road games.
Road woes are not unusual (CU has lost four road games in a row, dating back to a 41-27 win at Texas Tech last November), but it’s not a stat to be ignored.
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S – Statistics
CU’s rushing defense remains offensive … No point in belaboring the obvious … CU can’t stop the run. From giving up 320 yards rushing to Georgia Tech in the opener, to giving up an absurd 422 yards rushing last weekend to Utah.
For the season, the Buffs are now 132nd in the nation in rush defense, giving up 217.2 yards rushing per game. In the the FBS, only Georgia Southern and Eastern Michigan are worse at stopping the run.
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Third downs … With CU’s inefficiency on both sides of the ball, there are few statistical categories which favor the Buffs over many of its opponents.
One stat to keep an eye on this Saturday might be third down conversions. Arizona is not particularly adept at converting on third downs (.375%, 99th nationally).
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Prediction …
I don’t enjoy attending games when I have to pick against my team.
Two weeks ago, I went with my heart against my head, and picked CU over No. 22 Iowa State. That worked out okay, and I got to enjoy a glorious fall afternoon in Boulder.
I couldn’t go with the Buffs on the road against Utah, though. Having one of the worst rush defenses in the country going up against one of the best rushing offenses didn’t add up to an upset.
No one, though, could have predicted it would be as bad as it got.
What’s the saying?
You’re not as good as your best game (Iowa State); your not as bad as your worst game (Utah).
If the Buffs can be somewhere in between, they have a chance. If they can get off to a good start (offense showing progress; turnover on defense, perhaps?), they can put the Utah game behind them, and focus on the task at hand.
If the Buffs go three-and-out on offense, and Arizona marches down the field on its first drive, the boo-birds will be out in full force … and it could be a long evening.
I’m hoping for a pleasant evening at Folsom.
Prediction … Colorado 23, Arizona 20
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2025 Predictions (6-2 Straight up; 6-2 Against the spread) …
- Colorado 27, Georgia Tech 23 … Actual: Georgia Tech 27, Colorado 20
- Colorado 38, Delaware 13 … Actual: Colorado 31, Delaware 7
- Colorado 24, Houston 20 … Actual: Houston 36, Colorado 20
- Colorado 27, Wyoming 13 … Actual: Colorado 37, Wyoming 20
- No. 25 BYU 24, Colorado 20 … Actual: No. 25 BYU 24, Colorado 21
- TCU 34, Colorado 21 … Actual: TCU 35, Colorado 21
- Colorado 28, No. 22 Iowa State 21 … Actual: Colorado 24, No. 22 Iowa State 17
- Utah 31, Colorado 17 … Actual: Utah 53, Colorado 7
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2024 Predictions … (Straight up: 10-3; Against the Spread: 10-3) …
2023 Predictions … (Straight up: 8-4; Against the Spread: 7-5) …
2022 Predictions … (Straight up: 10-2; Against the Spread: 9-3) …
2021 Predictions … (Straight up: 9-3; Against the Spread: 7-5) …
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10 Replies to ““T.I.P.S.” for CU v. Arizona”
The Darin, Alum and Chirality discussion is interesting. 2024. Same staff. Different results. What changed? Losing some studs, particularly relative to CU’s recent history, to the NFL, and others to graduation, expired eligibility and a few transfers. Did the coaching change? Probably not really. So why the mediocrity, or scraping for mediocrity this year?
As to Lewis, that too is interesting. He whiffed last year at SDSU, but is doing well this year. Good for him! It’s also interesting that Danny O’Neil was his guy at CU. Followed him to SDSU. Then? Transferred to Wisconsin. Had Lewis stayed at CU, I don’t know that they get Salter, and particularly Julian. But who knows? And honestly, who cares? That’s water under the bridge. It’s like saying “gee, look at Owen McCown killing it at UTSA, if only he’d have stayed in Boulder.”
What I hang my hat on remains to be that nobody, not even Nick Saban, could’ve done for CU’s recruiting, and everything else, than what Deion has done. Is he all sizzle and no steak? I think he’s already proven he’s not. 9-4 last year was pretty remarkable, no matter how you slice it. Sure, his record against top teams isn’t great. He doesn’t have a great team. He will though. Disbelieve at your own peril. Not that it’s really perilous to doubt Deion, but you get the point.
I think he has also already quashed the “you can’t run a college program like an NFL one” deal. 9-4 says otherwise. On top of that, why do you think a lot of programs are taking pages from his playbook? Oh wait. That was because the players, in spite of the coaching? Ok. I’ll buy that too! But, without the players, then what? You won’t win. Deion will continue to get them.
I can still see Quentin Gibson wide open against Utah running down the seam, and he was not seen. Automatic touchdown of like 60-70 yards. There was another similar instance early in that game. As Deion said, you hit those? That tends to slow down the blitzes. The plays were there to be made. They just were not made. Oh well. It happens.
Do better tomorrow.
Go Buffs!
AU’s D is ranked 17th in the country and Shurmur is still here. Why?
I don’t think Prime will fire Shurmur during the season. I don’t think he wants to embarrass him. Doesn’t mean he won’t change up the play call though. I hope.
Buffs won’t lose to Mickey Max 2.0. 30-23
too bad because the alternative is shurmur continues to embarrass himself and the entire team
I don’t like this team’s construction, the coordinators are terrible, Deion is purely hype and its finally wore off for me. I want real coordinators and recruits, build on those young man and sprinkle in a couple transfers….. Until then, I dont see another W, maybe WVA, but it’s on the road so I’m not too sure there either-
AZ-31
CU-24
ATS 3-5, SU 6-2
My cup is definitely half empty after last weekend.
So what you really want is a return to what CU was in the 2000’s? Losing season after losing season. CU is not Ohio State, and there is no Natty on the horizon, not without a whole ton of NIL money which I don’t see any sponsors out there willing to give that kind of money to CU. Given that I’ll take Deion every day of the week, he personally, as done more to bring CU into the limelight more than ANY other coach at CU. Period. I like winning too, but this is the age of NIL, you only have to look as far as Texas Tech to see what that means.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m very thankful for what he’s done and I’m not saying to get rid of him. But we NEED real coordinators and recruits that we can retain and buid. And no, there is no champioship in anyone’s future with NIL outside the $elect few. Shedeur and T12 are not walking back thru that door, so recruiting and building up a 3 star is not a bad thing-(ie.Utah/Whittingham). Hyping and getting “clicks” was a novelty and yes fun, but not sustainable, now we need some real coaching to compete in the B12.
I agree with all that, but it’s not Deion’s style. I wouldn’t mind seeing Shurmer gone, Livingston is still TBD. As far as stars go, they matter, but what really matters is talent evaluation and that includes the intangibles which are as important as physical traits, Utah seems to be pretty good at that. 3 stars aren’t all equal.
I still can’t believe Sean Lewis was demoted in favorite of Shurmur. Look at how SDSU is doing this year (6-1, with a loss to a surprisingly good WSU and a baffling 6-3 win over NIU).
Sean Lewis with this offensive line and Kaidan Salter would be lighting up the scoreboard. It would be his dream team construction.
That is something else we need that you pointed out, a real talent evaluator. These 4-5 star transfers from Bama and FSU are transferrring for a reason, most didnt cut it.
I will never understand the Shurmur hire and promotion, Livingston showed promise and agreed jury is still out. But the current “way” has proven to not be the “way”. Definitely need to be some off-season changes, at least I hope.