“T.I.P.S.” for CU at West Virginia

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Colorado at West Virginia: “T.I.P.S.” for CU’s bid for first-ever win in Morgantown

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Colorado and West Virginia have met only twice before on the gridiron, with a home-and-home series played in 2008 and 2009.

The 2008 game was played in Boulder, with the Buffs defeating No. 21 West Virginia, 17-14 (Game story here, which includes Mountaineer kicker Pat McAfee – yes, that Pat McAfee – missing a 23-yard field goal attempt in overtime).

In 2009, West Virginia got its revenge with a 35-24 win, to date CU’s only visit to Morgantown (Game story here).

West Virginia head coach Rich Rodriguez has 193 career wins as a collegiate head coach, No. 3 among Power Four coaches (only Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz and Houston’s Willie Fritz have more). Sixty of those wins came in Rich Rod’s first stint at West Virginia (2001-07). Against Colorado, Rodriguez has a 5-1 record, all while he was the head coach at Arizona (2012-17).

This time around, Colorado and West Virginia both have 3-6, 1-5 records, but the Mountaineers come into the noon eastern kickoff with some momentum, while the Buffs are stumbling.

Perhaps it’s not a surprise that West Virginia has been tabbed as a 6.5-point home favorite.

Can CU’s true freshman quarterback outduel West Virginia’s true freshman quarterback?

Let’s find out …

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“T.I.P.S” for Colorado at West Virginia – Saturday, 10:00 a.m., MT, TNT

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T – Talent

Colorado hasn’t cornered the market in having issues at quarterback.

West Virginia has had three different starters at quarterback this season … one of the reasons the Mountaineers are also 3-6. 1-5.

Nicco Marchiol started the first four games of the season for West Virginia before a foot injury against Kansas sidelined the junior for the season. Redshirt freshman Kahlil Wilkins then started the next two games, losses to BYU and Utah.

The last three games, the starter has been true freshman Scotty Fox, Jr. In his first start, a 45-13 loss to UCF, Fox threw for only 47 yards and was sacked five times. Fox, though, hit his stride last weekend in a 45-35 road victory over No. 22 Houston.

Scotty Fox Jr. helped guide West Virginia to its first road win versus a top-25 opponent since 2018. Fox threw for 157 yards, rushed for a career-high 65 yards, and accounted for three total touchdowns. Fox also became the first freshman quarterback in school history to find the endzone three times in a game.

“Our freshman quarterback (Fox) is growing up,” West Virginia coach Rich Rodriguez said. “He’s really poised, seeing things out there. I’m proud of the way he played. The running backs ran. Diore Hubbard ran his tail off.”

Running back Diore Hubbard is another West Virginia freshman. Hubbard hadn’t gone for over 60 yards in a game before carrying the ball 29 times for 108 yards against Houston. (Point of reference: CU hasn’t had a back with over 25 rushes in a game since 2020. The highest rushing total for a Buff running back in 2025? 12 carries).

So, what’s the game plan for a West Virginia team which is 42nd in the nation in rushing? The Mountaineers are going to run on the Buffs – who are 132nd in the nation in rushing defense – until CU can prove they can stop the run.

You know what else also helped the Mountaineers upset the Cougars? West Virginia forced four Houston turnovers and converted them into 17 points. The West Virginia defense has been twice as successful as the Colorado defense in generating turnovers for its offense this fall, and it made a difference for the Mountaineers last weekend.

Otherwise, the West Virginia defense has proven vulnerable this fall. The Mountaineers are 106th in total defense, surrendering over 400 yards per game, and 110th in scoring defense, giving up over 30 points per game.

For a CU offense which hasn’t surpassed 24 points in a Big 12 game, it’s a big ask for the Buff offense to find its groove in Morgantown – with a freshman quarterback making his first career start – but they just might have to if CU is going to win.

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I – Intangibles

Heading different directions? …

West Virginia is 3-6, 1-5 in Big 12 play.

Colorado is 3-6, 1-5 in Big 12 play.

But the programs are heading in different directions.

The Buffs were on a high a few weeks ago, knocking off No. 22 Iowa State before heading into a bye week. Since then, the Buffs have gone south in a hurry, losing 53-7 and 52-14, being out-scored 81-7 in the first half of their losses to Utah and Arizona.

The Mountaineers were on a low a few weeks ago, drifting aimlessly through a five game losing streak, with losses by scores like 41-10 (Kansas), 48-14 (Utah) and 45-13 (UCF).

Now, West Virginia is on an upward trajectory, with a huge road win over a ranked Houston team – the same Houston team which easily handled CU, 37-20, in the same stadium in September.

Now, Colorado is on a death spiral, with embarrassing losses giving ample fodder to those gleefully watching Coach Prime and the Buffs fail.

Can the Buffs turn things around with a true freshman quarterback of their own?

TBD.

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In search of six … Both teams need to win out in order to become bowl eligible in 2025.

After Saturday’s game, the Buffs have a home game against Arizona State (after a bye) and a season-ending road game against Kansas State.

After Saturday’s game, the Mountaineers take to the road to face Arizona State (next weekend, while the Buffs are watching from home), then a bye week before finishing at home against No. 9 Texas Tech.

Neither team is expected to win out and go bowling.

One thing for sure, though … the team that loses no longer has that hope.

Desperate times call for desperate measures.

We’ll see which team still believes they can make something out of their season.

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P – Preparation/Schedule

Soggy Times, but at least it’s early … The forecast for the noon kickoff in Morgantown calls for a high of 56-degrees and a 40% chance of rain.

A game played in the rain would benefit the team which is better at running the ball … Advantage: West Virginia.

A game played in the rain might keep some fans away from an otherwise meaningless game between two 3-6 teams … Advantage: Colorado.

The noon kickoff will be a 10:00 a.m., body-clock game for the Buffs. At his press conference on Tuesday, Coach Prime was not worried about the early start, noting that the Buffs regularly practice at 9:00 a.m., and that Colorado has – most decidedly – played better during the day than late at night.

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Injury reports … Every Wednesday, at 8:00 p.m., MT, the Big 12 “Player Availability Reports” are posted. Each team is required to reports on player in the following categories: “Out”; “Doubtful”; “Questionable”; and “Available”. The CU/West Virginia injury report can be found here Wednesday night.

For the Arizona game, CU’s initial injury report had over a dozen names; Arizona’s initial injury report had one name.

There has been a great deal of discussion as to the validity of these reports. The majority of players who are listed as “Questionable” by CU have ended up playing that weekend. Conversely, other teams have made a mockery of the reports by either having players make miraculous recoveries right before game time … or not playing after not being listed on the availability reports.

The system either needs to be improved and enforced – or eliminated.

In the meantime, keeping track of how many defensive linemen and defensive backs are available for the Buffs has become a spectator sport … and will again this week.

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S – Statistics 

CU’s rushing defense remains offensive … The last few seasons, watching Colorado struggle to try and not finish last nationally in rushing offense was a constant battle (a battle which was lost. Thanks in part to ridiculously high sack losses, the Buffs finished last in rushing in the nation in both 2023 and 2024).

The stat which haunts the Buffs now (and one which will be cited by every preseason magazine next spring) is CU’s rushing defense. The Buffs are currently ranked 132nd in the country in rushing defense, at 215.8 yards surrendered per game. CU isn’t likely to finish last in the country (Georgia Southern and Eastern Michigan are both giving up over 240 yards rushing per game), but are a safe bet to finish last among Power Four schools (UCLA is 124th nationally, but the Bruins are giving up 20 yards fewer per game – 195.5 – than are the Buffs).

A stat to chew on … Even if the Buffs were to surrender zero yards rushing to each of its last three opponents, the average rushing yards per game allowed would only fall to 161.8 yards per game.

That virtually impossible stat would only move Colorado up to … 94th in the nation in rushing defense.

Yes, Virginia, the Buffs are that bad at stopping the run … and are going up against an offense which wants nothing more than to run the ball all afternoon this Saturday.

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As close as their records … As you might expect out of two teams with identical 3-6 records, the Buffs and Mountaineers are pretty close to one another in a number of statistics.

First, there are the average scores:

• West Virginia is scoring an average of 23.2 points per game; while giving up 30.4 points per game;
• Colorado is scoring an average of 22.0 points per game, while giving up 30.1 points per game

Both teams are also eerily consistent when it comes to the red zone:

• West Virginia is 21-23 in red zone scoring (91%), while allowing less success on defense (32-39; 82%);
• Colorado is 19-21 in red zone scoring (90%), while allowing less success on defense (28-34, 82%).

The stat of the game, though, isn’t particularly close, and decidedly works against the Buffs. West Virginia, as noted, is 42nd in the nation in rushing, going for 183.9 yards per game. Colorado’s defense, meanwhile, is 132nd in rushing defense, surrendering 215.8 yards per game.

Safe to say, whichever team is able to win this particular battle is going to win the game.

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Prediction … 

Coach Prime kept his players away from the press after the Arizona loss, and again during the weekly press conference. His rationale: “I’m trying to shield my guys from certain things that may harm them … My job to put an umbrella over them until they are ready to take on the attacks and assaults”.

That may or may not help Julian Lewis and the rest of the Buffs as they prepare to travel to Morgantown for only the second time in school history.

West Virginia is coming off of a high, beating No. 22 Houston on the road, 45-35. The upset victory can only give extra confidence to a true freshman quarterback who won his first game in his third start.

The Buffs don’t have much to hang their hats on coming into this game. Their chance at showing the Utah game was a fluke blew up in their faces. The Buffs fell behind Arizona, 17-0, before mustering their first first down of the game.

Julian Lewis may have all the talent in the world, but if the suddenly porous CU offensive line can’t protect him, and can’t establish something resembling a consistent running game, it will be a long afternoon for CU’s anointed savior.

Rich Rodriguez is not counting on true freshman quarterback Scotty Fox, Jr., to win the game against Colorado. Fox just needs to be a game manager – hand the ball off; don’t make mistakes.

Coach Prime, meanwhile, is counting on his true freshman quarterback, Julian Lewis, to win the game.

That’s the difference.

Prediction … West Virginia 28, Colorado 20

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2025 Predictions (6-3 Straight up; 6-3 Against the spread) …

• Colorado 27, Georgia Tech 23 … Actual: Georgia Tech 27, Colorado 20
• Colorado 38, Delaware 13 … Actual: Colorado 31, Delaware 7
• Colorado 24, Houston 20 … Actual: Houston 36, Colorado 20
• Colorado 27, Wyoming 13 … Actual: Colorado 37, Wyoming 20
• No. 25 BYU 24, Colorado 20 … Actual: No. 25 BYU 24, Colorado 21
• TCU 34, Colorado 21 … Actual: TCU 35, Colorado 21
• Colorado 28, No. 22 Iowa State 21 … Actual: Colorado 24, No. 22 Iowa State 17
• Utah 31, Colorado 17 … Actual: Utah 53, Colorado 7
• Colorado 23, Arizona 20 … Actual: Arizona 52, Colorado 17

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2024 Predictions … (Straight up: 10-3; Against the Spread: 10-3) …
2023 Predictions … (Straight up: 8-4; Against the Spread: 7-5) …
2022 Predictions … (Straight up: 10-2; Against the Spread: 9-3) …
2021 Predictions … (Straight up: 9-3; Against the Spread: 7-5) …

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This post, about the West Virginia game, from the 2025 Season, is filed under Article.
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