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Colorado at TCU: “T.I.P.S.” for Coach Prime’s return to Ft. Worth
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On September 2, 2023, Coach Prime and his new team traveled to Ft. Worth, Texas. In the debut of the Coach Prime era at CU, the Buffs shocked the Fox Big Noon crew, a national television audience, and, especially, the TCU Horned Frogs.
The Buffs, 20.5-point underdogs, came away with a 45-42 victory over the 17th-ranked Horned Frogs. Shedeur Sanders set the first of his 100+ school records with a 510-yard, four-touchdown performance, with Travis Hunter collecting an interception so improbable that it became a part of every Heisman and NFL Draft highlight video shown the last two years.
The 2025 Buffs won’t be playing a ranked TCU team this weekend, with the 24th-ranked Horned Frogs falling out of the polls after losing to Arizona State, but CU is still a 14.5-point underdog to TCU.
Can Coach Prime work his magic one more time in Ft. Worth, restoring some of the lost luster to his program?
Let’s find out …
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“T.I.P.S” for Colorado at TCU – Saturday, 5:30 p.m., MT, Fox
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T – Talent
You might want to write this one down …
For the first time in the Coach Prime era, Colorado will take the field against a team averaging fewer rushing yards per game than the Buffs.
Colorado is currently ranked 84th nationally in rushing offense, at 147.4 yards per game. TCU, meanwhile, is ranked 99th, at 133.5 yards rushing per game.
Does this translate into a ray of hope for the Buffs and their fans?
Well, not so much.
The reason that TCU is ranked so low in rushing offense is that the Horned Frogs are a passing team. TCU is ranked 12th in the nation in passing offense, picking up an average of 320.8 yards per game through the air. TCU quarterback Josh Hoover has passed for 1,242 yards, with 11 touchdown passes and four interceptions. While not a household name, Hoover is getting some Heisman trophy consideration.
Hoover is looking good because he has a top flight receiving corps. TCU has two of the top five receivers in the Big 12, in terms of receiving yards per game, and a third who ranks 12th.
One name to look out for this week is Eric McAllister. The preseason All-Big 12 pick almost single-handedly destroyed SMU two weeks ago with his eight-reception, 254-yard, three-touchdown performance … but … despite not being listed on TCU’s injury report, McAllister played only a few plays against Arizona State last weekend before leaving the game for good with what was described as a “lower body injury”. Stay tuned for TCU’s injury report Wednesday night …
Even without McAllister, TCU is loaded at wide receiver. Jordan Dwyer had almost 1,200 yards receiving last year, and is close to 300 already this year. Joseph Manjack IV is third on the team in receiving – 15 catches for 236 yards – numbers which would lead CU’s receiving corps.
The CU secondary has struggled against non-passing teams, including being whistled for seven pass interference penalties … which is as many pass interference calls as were called against the Buffs in all of the 2024 season.
Seven pass interference penalties … against running teams.
And now the Buffs are facing a passing team … yikes.
So, can CU out-score TCU?
TCU is 94th in total defense, giving up 387.8 yards per game (CU is 110th, at 404.8), but the Horned Frogs are bend-but-don’t break – coming in at 55th in scoring defense (21.5 points per game).
Last weekend, in a 27-24 road loss to Arizona State, the Horned Frogs gave up 498 yards of total offense. The defense wore down in the fourth quarter, with a 24-17 lead turning into a 27-24 loss.
If the Buffs, two touchdown underdogs, are going to pull off an upset on the road, the CU offense will need to come to play, and play for four quarters.
Not exactly the calling card for the 2025 Buffs.
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I – Intangibles
Chips on their shoulders … The Buffs had their chances to beat both Georgia Tech and BYU, but both games turned into losses … and losses at home.
Now the Buffs, who were dominated by Houston in their only other road game this season, are being asked to put together a full game against a Power Four team … and do so for the first time this season.
“Sometimes it felt like the moment was just too big for some of our athletes, and they got to do something about that,” head coach Deion Sanders said after the game.
For CU to turn its season around, it has to figure out how to rise to the occasion in big moments, but is that fixable?
“We can try, but they gotta step up,” Sanders said. “I’m not gonna go make excuses for them. They gotta step up. They gotta step up. I don’t know what else I can say about it.
“We just got to step up. We got to make the plays that were there. We had tremendous opportunities to make the plays. We just didn’t.”
If not now, when?
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P – Preparation/Schedule
Friday night lights … TCU has already had a bye week, playing only four games to date. CU, meanwhile, has been going straight through since the start of Fall Camp.
Advantage, TCU.
In addition, while TCU was on the road last weekend, the game was on Friday night. As the Buffs were finally taking the field against BYU late Saturday night, the Horned Frogs were already home resting, watching CU play.
Advantage, TCU.
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Injury reports … Every Wednesday, at 8:00 p.m., MT, the Big 12 “Player Availability Reports” are posted. Each team is required to reports on player in the following categories: “Out”; “Doubtful”; “Questionable”; and “Available”. The CU/TCU injury report can be found here Wednesday night.
Last week for the BYU game, CU’s injury report was extensive, including nine defensive backs (five were “Out”; four were ultimately “Available”), and seven defensive linemen (three were “Out”; Anquin Barnes had to sit out the first half due to a targeting penalty in the second half of the Wyoming game).
For a defense which will need all hands on deck against a powerful TCU offense, an improved injury report will be vital.
Stay tuned …
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Missing the Sunshine … Not a fan of late night games? Neither is Coach Prime.
But, for the fifth time in six games, the Buffs will be playing under the lights (next Saturday’s game against Iowa State will, mercifully, kickoff at 1:30 on ESPN).
The Buffs began practicing at night two weeks ago, with two evening practices. It may have helped against Wyoming (it certainly didn’t hurt). Against BYU … not so much.
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S – Statistics
Red Zone advantage? … The Buffs will need to score more than their 25.8-point average (85th nationally) if they expect to keep up with the TCU offense. One way to do that is to take advantage of scoring opportunities. TCU is 108th in red zone defense, giving up 13 scores in 14 red zone opportunities. CU, meanwhile, is 42nd nationally in red zone offense, converting 11 of 12 chances (nine touchdowns; two field goals).
Translation: CU needs to take advantage of every opportunity so score. Field goals = a loss.
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CU’s rushing defense is offensive … Last season, Kent State was last in the nation in rushing defense, giving up 264.9 yards per game. Against Georgia Tech, the Colorado defense surrendered 320 yards rushing. That was good enough to rank CU 132nd out of 134 teams nationally after Week One.
With that huge total, it’s going to take some exceptional defensive line play to bring CU into even an average rush defense numbers by the end o f the season.
In giving up 208 yards rushing to BYU, the Buffs kept their season average under 200 yards, but barely. CU still has a long way to go to just to get to an average rush defense.
Below is CU’s game-by-game numbers, with the new season average, and the new season national ranking:
- Georgia Tech (320; 320.0; 132nd) … Delaware (84; 202.0; 121st) … Houston (209; 204.3, 123rd) … Wyoming (165; 194.5; 121st) … BYU (208; 197.2; 123rd) …
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Prediction …
I lost a great deal of sleep Saturday night after CU’s loss to BYU, and it wasn’t just because of the late finish. I was tossing and turning in bed, my mind running through a series of “what if” scenarios, any one of which could have led to a Buff victory, and a much better feeling about CU’s 2025 season.
Instead, CU is 2-3, with more questions than answers as the Buffs hit a tough stretch of games.
And what makes it worse, many Buff fans saw CU’s loss to BYU coming, not only the result, but how it would happen.
Here’s what I wrote last week about the CU game against BYU …
This is my first pick against the Buffs. I very much hope to be wrong, but I’m afraid this game will end like the Kansas State game last season, and the Georgia Tech game four weeks ago … CU plays – at times – well enough to win, but in the end, it’s the visitors who do just enough to emerge with a win.
Prediction: No. 25 BYU 24, Colorado 20
Final score: No. 25 BYU 24, Colorado 21
I still believe the Buffs will break through, and upset a team which is equal to or better than CU. It may occur this week, but my guess CU has a better chance at victory next weekend at home against the higher ranked Iowa State Cyclones than against TCU.
The Horned Frogs have a dynamic passing offense, while CU is struggling in the secondary … That’s a bad combination for a team looking to get it’s act together, especially one trying to do so on the road.
Once the Buffs get their break through win, I will happily start predicting CU victories once again. Until then, though, the 2025 Buffs are going to have to prove they can beat a Power Four school …
Prediction … TCU 34, Colorado 21
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2025 Predictions (3-2 Straight up; 3-2 Against the spread) …
- Colorado 27, Georgia Tech 23 … Actual: Georgia Tech 27, Colorado 20
- Colorado 38, Delaware 13 … Actual: Colorado 31, Delaware 7
- Colorado 24, Houston 20 … Actual: Houston 36, Colorado 20
- Colorado 27, Wyoming 13 … Actual: Colorado 37, Wyoming 20
- No. 25 BYU 24, Colorado 20 … Actual: No. 25 BYU 24, Colorado 21
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2024 Predictions … (Straight up: 10-3; Against the Spread: 10-3) …
2023 Predictions … (Straight up: 8-4; Against the Spread: 7-5) …
2022 Predictions … (Straight up: 10-2; Against the Spread: 9-3) …
2021 Predictions … (Straight up: 9-3; Against the Spread: 7-5) …
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6 Replies to ““T.I.P.S.” for CU at TCU”
The secondary and specifically the Safeties are a problem, and it’s curious given the number of players we have listed there…starting Finnseth was a red flag. Silmon-Craig was all over the field…aside from Byard don’t see it at all (and he’s a year away).
Coaching lost that game. Pure and simple. Probably lost Georgia Tech too. And certainly lost the Houston game. Coaching. Not the players. Salter has not been the problem. Did anyone look and see Omarion Miller’s atrocious blocking? Why is he in the field if he can’t/wont block? Where is the accountability. And I am not even talking about his holding call which was 100% a hold. Watch the all-22 not the tv copy and you can see it clear as day.
Look, I love what Prime has done, but if he is not a game manager then he needs coaches who can actually prepare the team, figure out what the opposition is doing and find ways to cause them problems. I could go on. But the coaches need to stop blaming the players and take responsibility and figure their stuff out.
What they have done to Salter is a travesty. He has not been perfect, but allowing him to be the scapegoat is unacceptable.
For a rebuttable, look on YouTube for Salter’s interception at the end of the game. He left a clean pocket, with two receivers open at the first down marker, to scramble.
Not that it is on Salter, either, but nothing in football happens in a vacuum.
That is fair, but it didn’t lose us the game. Salter made a few bad plays, but after the first quarter the offensive scheme was calling plays that ran into the teeth of their defense, and we never adjusted to what they were playing.
FIFY: “I want them to coach like their life is on the line. Like their careers are on the line … I want them to coach with full intensity and passion.
I’ve definitely become a pessimist with the current team. There is just as bad coaching as execution.
The other painful observation is the transformation of Salter to a 100% gimmick sidearm QB. While I thought this could come in handy when needed or to throw off the Defense from time to time, has turned into a detriment on every single pass…WHY??!!! Can you no longer throw a normal over hand pass?
Unless something changes, I can’t see another W on the schedule
TCU-38
CU-17
ATS 1-4, SU 4-1