Prime’s Numbers: Not Adding Up

—

CU Recruiting: Coach Prime’s Numbers Not Adding Up

—

Signing Day used to be the busiest traffic day of the year at CU at the Game.

There was always so much drama on Signing Day … Would CU be able to hold onto their commits? Would the Buffs be able to get any last minute flips from other schools? Would the four-star prospect pick CU’s hat during the nationally televised signing ceremony in some random high school gym? Where would CU finish in the national recruiting rankings? 

I would spend countless hours in the weeks leading to Signing Day preparing bios for the presumed new Buffs. I would get up at the crack of dawn on that Wednesday morning, ready to post the story about every new commit when we received confirmation that a new Letter of Intent had been faxed in (yes, “faxed in” … ask your parents).

And now?

Not so much.

Moving the primary Signing Day from the first Wednesday in February to December made sense from a college football perspective, with teams able to solidify rosters much earlier than before. With early enrollment for high school seniors now the rule rather than the exception, players and coaches want to get the process over and done, and move on to spring classes and spring practices.

But moving Signing Day to December has taken much of the drama out of the process for the fans. Instead of spending most of January waiting with baited breath on the decisions of 17-year old prospects, Signing Day now comes and goes before the regular season even comes to an end.

And then Coach Prime came to Boulder.

Under Coach Prime, the timing of Signing Day doesn’t really matter … it’s pretty much a non-event either way.

Other than his first season in Boulder, when Coach Prime signed 21 freshman – he needed bodies after putting a depth charge to the locker room upon his arrival – CU has continuously signed one of the smallest freshman recruiting Classes in the nation:

• CU’s Recruiting Class of 2024 had all of 12 members;
• CU’s Recruiting Class of 2025 had 15; and
• CU’s Recruiting Class of 2026 has 13.

Colorado currently has the 75th-ranked Recruiting Class in the nation, according to 247 Sports, wedged in between football powerhouses Tulsa and Bowling Green. The dearth of signings in Boulder always makes for good copy for the haters (Sports Illustrated: “Concerning Recruiting Class Ranking For Colorado After National Signing Day“); also giving pundits yet another opportunity to question Coach Prime’s unwillingness to make in-home visits.

Not to fear, says Coach Prime. This is all by design.

“You want about 15 to 17 high school kids,” Sanders had said many times over the past three years.  “Why do you say that, coach?’ Well, check the statistics. You get 30. Are they gonna be here in two years? Statistically, check the statistics.

“Nowadays, if kids aren’t playing by that spring of that second go-round, they out — they jump in the portal,” Coach Prime said as the dismal 2025 season wound down. “You got to figure out the strategy. What do you want to go? How do you want to get it? The strategy a year ago was the same strategy it was last year. And you hit on your portal guys. You hit on your freshman guys. This year, you hit on your freshmen, to me, some of them. And you missed on your portal. So that’s why we’ sitting where we sit. It’s not like you didn’t have a strategic plan. No, you had a strategic plan. You missed. Sometimes it happens. And I’m going to take responsibility. I’m not going to say we missed. I missed.”

Much of CU’s struggles in 2025 can be tied to, as Coach Prime put it, missing on the Transfer Portal.

Here is a list of the top ten rated transfers from last spring (according to On3Sports/Rivals rankings):

• Offensive lineman Xavier Hill – started the first eight games of the season; missed the last four due to injury;
• Quarterback Kaidon Salter – started nine games; led the team in passing yards, and was the starter for all three wins;
• Offensive lineman Zarian McGill – started all 12 games at center;
• Wide receiver Joseph Williams – started seven games; second on the team in receiving yards;
• Defensive back Noah King – didn’t play in 2025; reentering the Transfer Portal;
• Defensive back Terrance Love – played in one game; reentering the Transfer Portal;
• Defensive back Teon Parks – played in ten games; started the last three after DJ McKinney was injured; reentering the Transfer Portal;
• Wide receiver Sincere Brown – played in all 12 games; seven starts; third on the team in receiving yards;
• Linebacker Martavius French – started first five games; finished 10th on the team with 32 tackles;
• Defensive lineman Jaheim Oatis – played in 11 games with two starts; 25th on the team with eight tackles.

To be sure, there were some hits in the Transfer Portal for CU last spring, especially along the offensive line. But, whether due to injury or other factors, there were a number of misses as well … and this list is the top-ten rated of CU’s 33 transfers last season. Of the remaining 23 transfers, there were a few hits, like safety Tawfiq Byard … but there were plenty of misses.

So … Coach Prime had a strategic plan for his 2025 roster … and he missed.

But there has to be more to team building than starting over every spring. For a team to be successful, there has to be some continuity in the locker room … some leadership … some dedication to the brand.

And that can come from having a core of players who not only can contribute on the field, but can pass on the importance of CU’s history, of CU’s traditions and legacy.

You can do that when you have a strong freshman Class each year, with players who will stay with the program all the way through.

Coach Prime was not wrong when he said that when you sign a Class of 30 players, half of them are likely going to be in the Transfer Portal by Year Two.

But his strategy only works if the small Class he signs sticks around … and that’s not happening at Colorado.

From Coach Prime’s first three recruiting Classes, only 21 of 48 players were still on Colorado’s roster at the end of the 2025 season. The rest transferred out already or left for other reasons.

If that trend holds, only about six or seven of the players signed this past week will actually still be Buffs in a year or two.

Does volume matter?

Colorado played with 79 scholarship players this fall. The limit used to be 85, but schools can actually now have up to 105 scholarship players. Not overloading the team with players who don’t contribute certainly makes sense, especially in the era of NIL, when players expect to be paid.

But you still need to have depth to be successful.

For much of the second half of the season, six of CU’s nine scholarship defensive linemen were on the Injury Report submitted to the Big 12 each Wednesday. The Buffs even had an offensive lineman playing some snaps on the defensive front in November …

Think having an extra body or two wouldn’t have helped the Buffs late in the season?

The bottom line is that for Colorado, and for many programs across the country in the current era, half or more of the freshmen who sign on with the team won’t be with the team in a few years.

That being the case, you could argue that signing 30 players, only to lose 15 of them in two years, doesn’t make sense.

But does it make any more sense to sign 12 … and only retain six?

Under the first scenario, you still have 15 players on the roster. Not all will be starters, but many could contribute, either by providing depth, or, at the very least, providing continuity in the locker room.

Late this week, Colorado hired its new offensive coordinator, Brennan Marion. We will be discussing at some length over the next few weeks and months what Marion brings to the table, both in terms of the Go-Go offensive scheme, and what that means for the Buff offense going forward.

But, for the purposes of today’s discussion, this note, from national recruiting analyst for 247 Sports Brandon Huffman, is an eye-opener:

The amount of Colorado offers that will go out to high school players likely just went from 20 to 20,000, and I’m only slightly exaggerating.

One thing about Marion, he LOVES to recruit and make offers. So even if guys aren’t takes, there are gonna be a loooooot of Colorado offers to track.

Marion has already brought along a four-star wide receiver Xavier McDonald, who had committed to play for him at Sacramento State … a harbinger of better recruiting days to come?

Coach Prime said he was going to make changes this off-season, and had a plan to put a winning team on the field in 2026.

For the most part, the Recruiting Class of 2026 was already going to be in the books before any significant changes could be made … but, for the Recruiting Class of 2027?

Right now, Prime’s numbers aren’t adding up.

But that may be changing soon …

–

—–

Tags: Brennan Marion
This post, about the Postseason game, from the 2025 Season, is filed under Article.
You can follow any comments to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a comment.