Opposition Research: The Case Against CU

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Opposition Research: The Case Against CU

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During the (mercifully short) Karl Dorrell era at CU, researching the Buffs in the preseason took little time or effort. Sure, Colorado was going to be in a battle in the Pac-12 … but only in the battle for the title as the worst team in the conference.

Since Coach Prime took over the CU program, though, it’s been a mixed bag. In two of CU’s last three seasons, the Buffs exceeded expectations. Last season, though, the CU regressed to the mean in a bad way.

In 2023, Las Vegas had the CU over/under win total at 3.5. The Buffs started out hot, getting to four wins in the first half of the season, before injuries and a lack of talent in the trenches brought about a slide and a 4-8 final record.

In 2024, Las Vegas had the CU over/under win total at 5.5. The Buffs, after falling on their faces in Lincoln against the hated Huskers, steadied the ship, gaining bowl eligibility before the end of October. CU finished with a 9-4 record and a No. 25 ranking in the final AP poll.

In 2025, Las Vegas has the CU over/under win total at 6.5. The Buffs got to late October with a 3-4 record, with close losses to Georgia Tech (27-20) and No. 25 BYU (24-21) keeping CU from a winning record. Instead of contending for a bowl berth in November, however, the Buffs went south. CU went 0-5 to end the season, losing those five games by an average score of 40-14.

In 2026? Las Vegas expects little from the Buffs. The over/under win total is at 4.5.

If anything, though, Vegas is more optimistic than most of the national pundits:

• Lindy’s Sports has CU as the last place team in the Big 12, 71st in the nation;
• Athlon, the Buffs are the No. 14 team in the 16-team conference, No. 64 in the country;
• ESPN is slightly more optimistic, with its Football Power Index considering CU as the No. 45 team in the country … but still 10th in the Big 12;
• The Athletic has CU at No. 15 in the Big 12, agreeing with the Vegas over/under projection of 4.5 wins;
• The College Football News has CU finishing with a 3-9, 2-7 record.

There are others, but you get the idea.

Every year, I spend a great deal of time (too much time) in the off-season looking for news about CU football to share on the website. For the most part this off-season, other than stories generated out of Boulder by local media, the consensus is that the Buffs will struggle in 2026. (If you’ve seen a national publication with CU finishing with a winning record, let me know, and I’ll post it!).

Stewart Mandel at The Athletic may as well have been speaking for the national media when he put it this way in his Big 12 predictions:

The Deion Sanders era ends with a thud. Colorado brought in enough talent to be better than last year’s non-competitive 3-9 squad. But a complete turnover on defense, coupled with nonconference games at Georgia Tech and Northwestern, will lead to another losing season, after which both sides move in different directions.

No one in the national expects much from your Buffs.

They can’t all be wrong, can they?

So, let’s take a look at the biggest gripes about CU, and put them to a “Fear Factor” test. On a scale of 1-10, with “1” being “this is anti-Coach Prime hype, feel free to disregard” to a “10”, being “this is one of the reasons CU won’t be going bowling”.

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The Schedule is too difficult for CU to get to six wins 

Fear Factor Rating … 7.5 … Simply put, if CU had this year’s roster, and next year’s schedule, the Buff Nation could be much more confident about a winning season. CU fans have heard all summer that the Buffs, in traveling to Atlanta to face Georgia Tech, and then to Evanston, Illinois, to face Northwestern, are the only Power Four team to have two non conference road games against Power Four opponents.

That’s not the formula for success.

Compare CU’s 2027 non-conference schedule: Colgate; Northwestern, and Northern Illinois – all at home. Not to mention that in next year’s Big 12 slate, CU misses Texas Tech, Utah, and Kansas State.

True enough, the Buffs only face three ranked teams in 2026 – Texas Tech, Houston, and Utah – and get all three at home. If CU was primed for a playoff run, this would be the dream set up. As it is, however, the Buffs are still swimming upstream trying to post winning seasons, so this year’s schedule can – fairly – be considered daunting.

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Brennan Marion’s offense won’t translate to the Power Four

Fear Factor Rating … 3.5 … Offensive coordinator Brennan Marion’s “Go-Go” offense has worked everywhere it’s been tried … but it hasn’t been tried at the Power Four level.

Can Marion make it work in the Big 12? No reason to believe it can’t. With misdirection and multiple sets, Marion’s offense set school records at UNLV when he was the Runnin’ Rebels offensive coordinator.

Making the Go-Go offense go is less about already tested scheme than it is about personnel, which leads us to …

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The talent on offense hasn’t improved much over the team which went 3-9 last season

Fear Factor Rating … 6.5 … Last year, CU had more former four- and five-star players on its roster than the previous ten seasons … combined.

And yet, the Buffs were terrible on offense – and that was with future first-round NFL Draft pick Jordan Seaton on the offensive line.

This season, Coach Prime has shifted gears in his Transfer Portal shopping, going for stats over stars. Production at the previous stop replaced potential as the most important factor in luring a player to Boulder.

What CU now has is a young quarterback (hard as it may be to believe, but Julian Lewis is still only 18 years old. He won’t turn 19 until September 21st) to go with players who had plenty of snaps at other schools.

They just weren’t all at Power Four schools.

CU’s wide receiver room appears to have enough talent to compete at the Big 12 level, but what of the running backs? You know the old saying that when a head coach tells you he has two quarterbacks, he is really telling you he has none?

Well, CU has a lot of running backs.

In coach-speak, there is “versatility” in CU’s running back room. This is meant to be a good thing, with some backs being better at pass blocking, some better at short yardage, and some better catching the ball.

The problem is that there is only one football out there on the field, and CU doesn’t get to have four running backs in the lineup at the same time.

You think Boise State was worried about “versatility” in the running back room two years ago when they had Ashton Jeanty? No. The Broncos didn’t care about having numerous running backs with varied talents … they had Ashton Jeanty.

Truth is, CU hasn’t had a bell cow running back since Phillip Lindsay ten years ago, and doesn’t appear to have one now.

And let’s not forget the offensive line.

Buff fans are being led to believe that this is a better line than last season’s group. That room had Jordan Seaton … and the Buffs were still 103rd in the nation in rushing offense, 124th in sacks allowed, 112th in total offense, and 114th in scoring offense.

CU’s offensive line will be better this year, perhaps only because it’s hard to imagine it being worse.

Even when the Buffs were winning games two years ago, it was largely due to the talent – and improvisation – of Shedeur Sanders, as CU in 2024 was last in the nation in rushing offense.

Coach Prime is heading into his fourth season in Boulder, and Buff fans are supposed to believe that this year, CU will be able to run the ball?

Perhaps, but few outside of Boulder are buying what Coach Prime and Coach Marion are selling.

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Chris Marve is in over his head as CU’s Defensive Coordinator

Fear Factor Rating … 8.0 … In December, 2024, Chris Marve was fired as the defensive coordinator at Virginia Tech. The Hokies were 58th nationally in total defense that season, falling from 20th in 2023.

After sitting out the 2025 campaign without a job, Marve was hired as CU’s linebacker’s coach on December 20, 2025. Less than two month’s later, he was promoted to the position of defensive coordinator after Robert Livingston left CU for the Denver Broncos.

So, Marve was fired from his last position, couldn’t get a job last season, then landed in Boulder nine months ago as a position coach.

Not to say that it won’t work out, but it’s not as if other programs were beating down the door for Marve’s services – he couldn’t even get a job as a position coach last fall.

And now he is in charge of making CU’s defense respectable.

National media to CU: Good luck with that.

Okay, so it’s not about the X’s and O’s. It’s more about the Jimmy’s and the Joe’s.

How’s that shaping up for the Buffs? …

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Even with skilled players at linebacker and cornerback, the CU defense is still lacking in talent and depth

Fear Factor Rating … 6.0 … Colorado may have its best set of linebackers in years. The Buffs may also have a pair of NFL Draft picks at the cornerback positions.

But that won’t mean squat if the Buffs can’t stop the run, and the CU defensive line is the weakest unit on the team.

Ezra Christiansen may still play for the Buffs this fall (though with each passing day, that seems less and less likely). Even if the highest-rated transfer defensive lineman gets another year of eligibility, CU’s defensive line is suspect.

CU surrendered a whopping 222.5 rushing yards per game last year, a number topped only by Eastern Michigan (232.1) among 134 Division I teams.

“I’d say the gap from whoever are our top guys to our sixth, seventh guys, it’s (thin),” said defensive end Toby Anene, a fifth-year transfer from North Dakota State. “There’s so many talented guys in that room and so many hard-working guys. It’s great to see. You can send anybody out with the ones and they’ll get the job done.”

Perhaps having quality cornerbacks will allow CU to have more safety help for the rushing defense.

Perhaps CU’s quality linebackers will make up for apparent deficiencies along the line of scrimmage.

Or, perhaps, Georgia Tech, which gashed the Buffs for 320 yards rushing in last season’s opener, will give the Buff Nation pause about the prospects for the upcoming season.

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Every team is undefeated this week.

Starting next weekend, with a handful of Week Zero games, the luster of the new season will begin to wear off for fans of several programs.

The message boards on the CU sites have six wins and a bowl game as a floor for the Buffs in 2026.

The national media see six wins for the Buffs as a ceiling, not a floor.

In less than two weeks, we’ll get our first look as to who may be right.

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This post, about the Fall Camp game, from the 2026 Season, is filed under Article.
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