—
Big 12 Notes – Fall Camp
—
August 3rd
… Foe Pause …
Big 12 Opening Lines: CU still a 4.0-point underdog at home to Georgia Tech
… Over half of the Big 12 conference teams have games against FCS teams in Week One (no betting lines). Other than the Big 12 opener between Iowa State and Kansas State, the only other Big 12 conference teams to take on Power Four opponents in Week One are Cincinnati (Nebraska), Colorado (Georgia Tech), Baylor (Auburn), Utah (UCLA) and TCU (North Carolina) …
Saturday, August 23rd (Week Zero)
- Kansas State vs Iowa State – (in Dublin, Ireland) … 10:00 a.m., MT, ESPN … Kansas State is a 3.5-point favorite (O/U 49.5)
- Fresno State at Kansas … 4:30 p.m., MT, Fox … Kansas is a 14.0-point favorite (O/U 51.5)
Thursday, August 29th
- Jacksonville State at UCF … 5:00 p.m., MT, ESPN+ … UCF is a 16.5 favorite (O/U 53.5)
- UT-Martin at Oklahoma State … 5:30 p.m., MT, ESPN+ … no line
- Stephen F. Austin at Houston … 6:00 p.m., MT, ESPN+ … no line
- Nebraska vs Cincinnati – (in Kansas City, MO) … 7:00 p.m., MT, ESPN … Cincinnati is a 6.5 underdog (O/U 52.5)
Friday, August 29th
- Wagner at Kansas … 5:30 p.m., MT, ESPN+ … no line
- Auburn at Baylor … 6:00 p.m., MT, Fox … Baylor is a 1.5-point favorite (O/U 57.5)
- Georgia Tech at Colorado …6:00 p.m., MT, ESPN … Colorado is a 4.0-point underdog (O/U 55.5)
Saturday, August 30th
- Robert Morris at West Virginia … 12:00 p.m., MT, ESPN+ … no line
- South Dakota at Iowa State … 1:30 p.m., MT, Fox … no line
- North Dakota at Kansas State … 5:00 p.m., MT, ESPN+ … no line
- Arkansas Pine-Bluff at Texas Tech … 5:30 p.m., MT, ESPN+ … no line
- Portland State at BYU … 6:00 p.m., MT, ESPN+ … no line
- Northern Arizona at Arizona State … 8:00 p.m., MT, ESPN+ … no line
- Hawaii at Arizona … 8:30 p.m., MT, TNT … Arizona is a 13.5-point favorite (O/U 55.5)
- Utah at UCLA … 9:00 p.m., MT, Fox … Utah is a 6.5-point favorite (O/U 50.5)
Monday, September 1st
- TCU at North Carolina … 6:00 p.m., MT, ESPN … TCU is a 3.0-point favorite (O/U 59.5)
–
—–
August 2nd
… Foe Pause …
Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell gets a pay raise; sets aside funds for assistants and revenue sharing
From CBS Sports … Three-time Big 12 Coach of the Year Matt Campbell is locked in with Iowa State. The school finalized a contract extension with the winningest coach in program history, keeping him on board through the 2032 season, ESPN’s Max Olson reports. Campbell will make $5 million per year and reportedly agreed to take a discount on his new deal to pave the way for an increased assistant salary pool and to allow Iowa State to set aside an additional $1 million in revenue sharing money.
According to USA Today’s coach salary database, the $5 million figure would have made Campbell the 42nd-highest paid coach in college football last season, tied with ex-North Carolina coach Mack Brown. It is a substantial bump from the $4 million Campbell made last year, which ranked 53rd nationally.
The extension and pay raise is a timely one. It capitalizes on the success Campbell delivered last fall in what was by far the best season in Iowa State history. The 11 wins marked the first time the Cyclones ever cracked the double-digit win mark, they returned to the Big 12 Championship Game for the first time since 2020 and their No. 15 ranking in the final AP Top 25 was their second-highest finish to date.
Campbell has been a reported candidate for numerous jobs throughout his Iowa State career but each time stayed with his program in Ames. Most recently, he drew interest from the Chicago Bears this offseason before the franchise hired Ben Johnson.
… Continue reading story here …
–
—–
August 1st
… Foe Pause …
ESPN: Only two teams have as much as a ten percent chance to make the College Football Playoff
From ESPN …The 12-team College Football Playoff will again include the five highest-ranked conference champions — a guarantee that expands the pool of candidates to include any team that has a shot at winning its conference.
According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, there are 32 teams — the most in the CFP era — with at least a 10% chance of reaching the playoff. They come from the Power 4 conferences, the American and the Mountain West, but how many of them can actually win the national title?
“Four or five,” Texas A&M coach Mike Elko said.
“I’d say there’s eight,” Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer said.
This list will shrink by November, but below it starts with 32 teams ranked in order of their percentage chance to make the playoff. You’ll also see their chance to win the national title, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
The CFP selection committee doesn’t always agree with the computers, though. Here’s a look at how they will view the 32 teams with at least a 10% chance to make the playoff.
From the Big 12 …
17. Kansas State Wildcats
Last year: 9-4
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +15000
CFP ranking history: 24 appearances, highest at No. 7
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 22.2% | Win national title: .4%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. The reality is the Big 12 is once again the most wide-open race in the FBS, but with quarterback Avery Johnson returning for his second season as the starter, expectations are high. According to ESPN’s FPI, K-State has a 19.9% chance to win the Big 12, a slight edge over defending champ Arizona State (13%). It’s not impossible for the Big 12 to get two playoff teams in, but the most likely scenario for the second team is as the league runner-up in a close loss — similar to what happened with SMU last year in the ACC.
Toughest test: Oct. 25 at Kansas. An in-state rival on the road during the heart of the season will have implications on the Big 12 standings and, in turn, the CFP race. ESPN’s FPI gives K-State a 52.1% chance to win. The Wildcats escaped with a two-point win last year.
What the committee will like: A season-opening win against Iowa State in Dublin. The Cyclones are capable of winning the Big 12, and if K-State can knock them off in the season opener, it could help alleviate the blow of a loss in the Big 12 title game if they meet again. K-State would be able to claim a regular-season win against the conference champs. That’s a résumé booster that has helped teams before in the committee meeting room.
What the committee won’t like: No statement wins. If K-State doesn’t beat Iowa State, it might not have a win against a ranked team on its résumé. The Wildcats don’t face Arizona State or BYU during the regular season. Texas Tech could play its way into the top 25 and even make a run at the Big 12 title, and Kansas could as well, but there’s no headliner in the lineup to help separate K-State from another comparable contender.
–
24. Arizona State Sun Devils
Last year: 11-3, CFP quarterfinal
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +15000
CFP ranking history: 10 appearances, highest at No. 6
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 16.1% | Win national title: .2%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Where’s the computer love for the defending Big 12 champs?! The Sun Devils return 79% of last year’s production, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. This is a team that should start the season on the bubble of the bracket — not the top 25. Quarterback Sam Leavitt and receiver Jordyn Tyson are potential first-round NFL draft picks, and 10 starters return from a defense that led the league in run defense (112.9 yards) and was No. 3 in scoring defense (22.6 points).
Toughest test: Nov. 1 at Iowa State. Ames is a notoriously tricky place to win, and this game will be important for both Big 12 and CFP standings. Last year, ASU beat Iowa State 45-10 to win the Big 12 title and earn the league’s lone CFP spot.
What the committee will like: A Big 12 title. It’s going to be difficult (again) for the Big 12 runner-up to secure a second CFP spot unless it’s a lights-out, no-brainer pick, and it’s going to be difficult for ASU to prove that with the nation’s No. 73 schedule strength — especially when so many SEC teams’ schedules are ranked among the top 15. Arizona State will have some opponents sneak into the CFP top 25, and the committee respects wins against good teams — even if they’re not ranked — but it will also give the edge to contenders that have better statement wins against a more rigorous schedule.
What the committee won’t like: A loss to Mississippi State. Don’t let the SEC label fool you. ASU beat the 2-10 Bulldogs last year and should do it again if it’s a true playoff team. A loss would mean no Power 4 nonconference wins, as the rest of the schedule includes Northern Arizona and Texas State. There’s also upset potential at Baylor to end September, and that would be a devastating start for a program aiming for history.
–
—
College Sports Commission (NCAA) already backing down on NIL restrictions
… “Will wealthy teams and their boosters be able to game the system designed to create competitive balance?” (Hint: “Yes”) …
From ESPN … The College Sports Commission has loosened its blanket prohibition on athletes receiving payments from NIL collectives, according to a memo the new enforcement agency sent to athletic directors Thursday morning.
The collectives, an evolving industry built to funnel money to athletes at a particular school, will still face significantly more scrutiny when trying to sign deals with players than they had in past years.
Thursday’s memo from the CSC, which revises guidance it issued three weeks ago, ends the first notable scuffle under the industry’s new enforcement structure without needing to return to a courtroom. However, it provides more of a punt than a definitive answer to an essential question for the future of how major college sports will function: Will wealthy teams and their boosters be able to game the system designed to create competitive balance?
The new rules say athletes and collectives will have to show that each deal they sign requires the athlete to promote a product or service that is being sold to make a profit rather than just being a vehicle to channel money from boosters to athletes. Collectives might need to show documentation of “the entity’s effort to profit from the deal,” according to the memo.
College athletes can now make money in two ways: via direct payments from their school and through endorsement contracts with third parties. As part of a landmark legal agreement known as the House settlement, which was finalized in June, lawyers for the athletes and the schools agreed to put a cap on direct payments starting at $20.5 million per school in the coming academic year.
During the previous four years, when only NIL payments were permitted, a cottage industry of collectives evolved to provide their teams with a de facto payroll. Many of those groups gathered money from fans and wealthy boosters to give to athletes in exchange for some minimal endorsement. Some collectives also acted as marketing agencies — pairing athletes with local companies for endorsements — or launched subscription-based businesses to help fans connect with the players on their favorite team.
In an effort to keep teams from using their collectives to circumvent the $20.5 million spending cap, the terms of the House settlement state that all deals with “associated entities” (essentially collectives and boosters) have to be for a “valid business purpose” and fall within a reasonable range of compensation. A $1 million deal for a player to make a few social media posts, for example, won’t be allowed.
“Pay-for-play will not be permitted, and every NIL deal done with a student-athlete must be a legitimate deal, not pay-for-play in disguise,” CSC CEO Bryan Seeley said Thursday.
The CSC is a new organization in charge of vetting all third-party deals to make sure they comply with the terms of the settlement. The conferences and CSC are using a platform called NIL Go, operated by Deloitte, to vet those third-party deals. The new guidelines mean that each deal will need to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis with subjective analysis rather than running them through an algorithm, which will likely require more manpower than the fledgling enforcement group with only three employees thus far initially planned.
The CSC issued its initial ban on collectives July 10, less than two weeks after opening its doors. Several collectives told ESPN they felt the ban painted with too broad of a brush and unfairly outlawed their industry.
… Continue reading story here …
–
—–