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Big 12 Preview – Part Two
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The college football season is upon us, with Fall Camps in full swing. CU’s opener against Georgia Tech is now just a month away.
Before we get completely CU-centric, let’s take a look at how the Big 12 race may shake out.
In reviewing CU’s 15 rivals in the impossible-to-predict Big 12, I have put teams into four categories:
– Tier One: A team which is a Big 12 title contender, and a likely Top 25 team nationally;
– Tier Two: A solid team, and a likely bowl participant, but a team with a flaw or two which will prevent them from threatening to win the league;
– Tier Three: A team with bowl aspirations, where the Strive for Six is the main goal, a goal which obtainable if the season plays out as projected; and
– Tier Four: A team going through a rebuilding season. You can squint at the schedule and perhaps find six wins and a bowl bid, but a losing season is the most likely outcome.
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A look at the first eight Big 12 teams … at least alphabetically … was posted last weekend. Previews of Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, BYU, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston and Iowa State can be found here …
Now, on to Part Two …
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Kansas
Picked 4th in the Big 12 by ESPN … Athlon: 8th in the Big 12/36th nationally … Lindy’s: 8th in the Big 12 /36th nationally … Phil Steele: 10th in the Big 12 … Vegas Insider win total over/under: 7.5 wins …
Kansas slid back to a 5-7, 4-5 overall record last fall, but did win four of its last six games (including a 37-21 rout of Colorado) after a woeful 1-5 start. Working against the Jayhawks was playing all of their games on the road or in Kansas City, a problem which will be remedied by the reopening of the remodeled David Booth Memorial Stadium.
That in and of itself may be a boost for a team which went 1-5 in one score games last season. Jalon Daniels also returns ag at quarterback … but that’s about it, as the only other two returning starters on offense from last year are offensive lineman. Kansas’ all-time leading rusher, Devin Neal (who torched the Buffs for 207 yards and three touchdowns last season) is gone, as are all of the top receivers.
Only three starters return on defense, and that may not be an altogether bad thing, as the Jayhawks were 92nd in total defense last season. Kansas will be relying on transfers for many of its new starters, but, unlike CU, seem to be given a pass for filling so many holes through the Transfer Portal.
Schedule … Nice, and perhaps the reason Kansas is rated so highly by the pundits. Four of the first five games of the season are at home, and all four – Fresno State, Wagner, West Virginia and Cincinnati – are very winnable. The Jayhawks also get Oklahoma State and Arizona in early November … and that’s six wins there, before you even have to look at the remainder of the schedule.
v. Colorado … The Buffs and Jayhawks do not play one another in 2025.
Rating … Tier Two … Based on the schedule alone, Kansas should go to a bowl game. Deficiencies in the skill positions on offense, and throughout the defense, will keep the Jayhawks from being serious contenders for a league title.
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Kansas State
Picked 1st in the Big 12 by ESPN … Athlon: 1st in the Big 12/13th nationally … Lindy’s: 3rd in the Big 12 /20th nationally … Phil Steele: 5th in the Big 12 … Vegas Insider win total over/under: 8.5 wins …
Kansas State is coming off of a 9-4 season (just like the Buffs), 5-4 in Big 12 play (CU went 7-2). But the Wildcats are one of the favorites to win the Big 12, and compete for a College Football Playoff berth.
The difference? Avery Johnson. KSU’s quarterback not only threw for 2,700 yards and 25 touchdowns, he ran for another 600 yards and seven more touchdowns. As Johnson goes, so goes the Wildcats.
Running back DJ Giddens will be missed, but former Buff Dylan Edwards is ready to fill the void. In all, six starters return from an offense which was 31st in the nation in total yards last season. The Wildcats do have to replace two NFL Draft picks in the secondary, but most of a quality defense returns.
Schedule … Manageable. The season opener in Week Zero against Iowa State is important, but the non-conference schedule, games against North Dakota, Army, and Arizona (in a previously scheduled non-conference game) are all quite winnable. TCU, Texas Tech and Colorado all come to Manhattan, with Baylor and Utah the only tricky road games.
v. Colorado … The Buffs and Wildcats will play in Manhattan the Saturday of Thanksgiving weekend to close out the regular season.
Rating … Tier One … If Avery Johnson stays healthy and productive, and the Wildcats get past Iowa State in Dublin, Kansas State will be nationally ranked all season. KSU reached No. 17 in the polls last season before losing three of its final four games to fall out of the Big 12 race. Don’t look for that to happen in 2025.
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Oklahoma State
Picked 13th in the Big 12 by ESPN … Athlon: 13th in the Big 12/68th nationally … Lindy’s: 16th in the Big 12 /82nd nationally … Phil Steele: 14th in the Big 12 … Vegas Insider win total over/under: 5.5 wins …
Oklahoma State Mike Gundy has had only three losing seasons in 21 years as the head coach in Stillwater, but 2024 was the worst. The Cowboys opened with three non-conference wins to open the season, but then lost all nine Big 12 games, including a 52-0 embarrassment in Boulder to end the regular season.
All-American running back Ollie Gordon is gone … from an offense which paradoxically ranked 114th in the nation in rushing. New offensive coordinator Doug Meacham has two dual-threat quarterbacks to work with (Zane Flores and Hause Hejny), but neither has significant playing experience.
Overall, Oklahoma State has one returning starter on offense (a wide receiver) and one returning starter on defense (a defensive tackle). Considering the defense was ranked 132nd in the nation last season, giving up 500 yards per game, starting over might not be such a bad idea.
Schedule … Not conducive for a bounce back season. One of the few Big 12 teams projected to have a losing season (over/under 5.5 wins), the Cowboys will open with a win over UT Martin before having their hats handed to them by Oregon in Eugene. The best hope for winnable Big 12 games include two at home (Houston; Cincinnati) and two on the road (at Arizona; at UCF).
v. Colorado … The Buffs and Cowboys do not play one another in 2025.
Rating … Tier Four … It’s hard to see Oklahoma State beating Oregon, Texas Tech, Kansas State or Iowa State, which means the Cowboys will have to go 6-2 against the rest of the schedule to get to a bowl. It’s possible … but not likely.
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TCU
Picked 6th in the Big 12 by ESPN … Athlon: 9th in the Big 12/37th nationally … Lindy’s: 7th in the Big 12 /35th nationally … Phil Steele: 7th in the Big 12 … Vegas Insider win total over/under: 6.5 wins …
TCU and Colorado have much in common this off-season. Both teams finished 9-4 last year, but both are picked to be middle-of-the-pack teams in the Big 12 this fall, with over/under win totals at 6.5 games.
The Horned Frogs, though, are given more of the benefit of the doubt for the 2025 campaign, though, largely due to more returning starters … quarterback Josh Hoover in particular.
Hoover led an offense which was eighth in the nation in passing last fall. Like Colorado, TCU lost most of its top receivers to the NFL, but also return talented wideouts. That, together with three returning offensive linemen, give the Horned Frogs reason for optimism about this year’s offense.
TCU’s defense was fair to poor last season, especially against the run, but does return starters at all three levels.
Schedule … Difficult. TCU opens the season on the road against North Carolina and Bill Belichick in a nationally televised game on Labor Day. Before September is out, the Horned Frogs will have played two CFP teams from last season, playing SMU at home before facing Arizona State on the road. Then CU comes to town before a road game against Kansas State.
v. Colorado … The Buffs and Horned Frogs will play in a rematch of Coach Prime’s debut as CU’s head coach in Ft. Worth on October 4th.
Rating … Tier Two … Games against North Carolina and SMU won’t count in the Big 12 standings, but could have a significant impact on the psyche of the Horned Frogs. Win both, and the sky is the limit. Lose both, and games against Kansas State and BYU on the road, plus Baylor and Iowa State at home, could keep TCU out of the national conversation.
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Texas Tech
Picked 5th in the Big 12 by ESPN … Athlon: 3rd in the Big 12/22nd nationally … Lindy’s: 2nd in the Big 12 /18th nationally … Phil Steele: 6th in the Big 12 … Vegas Insider win total over/under: 8.5 wins …
Welcome to Nike U. South. Or, perhaps, another failed experiment like T. Boone Pickens trying to buy a title for Oklahoma State.
Former Texas Tech player and current billionaire Cody Campbell is going all-in to bring his alma mater its a CFP bid, or, at the very least, the Red Raiders first outright conference title since Texas Tech won the Border Conference in 1955.
Texas Tech has spent millions – make that tens of millions – in buying the most expensive lineup in the the Big 12. Quarterback Behrens Morton returns, but 1,500-yard rusher Tahj Brooks is gone. The offensive line which surrendered seven sacks to Colorado in a 41-27 home loss last season has been completely rebuilt, as has the entire defensive line.
The talent has unquestionably been upgraded at Texas Tech. But, as has been the case with Colorado and others, the question remains as to how well the lineup will mesh in Year One of the Cody Campbell buy-in.
Schedule … Easier than any of the other Big 12 title contenders. The non-conference schedule of Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State and Oregon State (all at home) couldn’t be much easier. The Red Raiders’ season may well come down to two difficult road games – at Arizona State and at Kansas State. Win those two, and Texas Tech may get a shot at its first Big 12 championship.
v. Colorado … The Buffs and Red Raiders do not play in 2025.
Rating … Tier One … Texas Tech has a quarterback returning who led an offense which was in the top ten nationally in both total offense and scoring offense. The rest of the offense – and much of the defense – however, only looks good on paper. The Red Raiders should easily reach the eight-win plateau of last season, but how much further Texas Tech can go is up to how well Joey McGuire and his staff can piece together a complete package of a team.
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UCF
Picked 8th in the Big 12 by ESPN … Athlon: 16th in the Big 12/73rd nationally … Lindy’s: 13th in the Big 12 /65th nationally … Phil Steele: 12th in the Big 12 … Vegas Insider win total over/under: 5.5 wins …
Scott Frost, Part II.
Not exactly a fan favorite of the Buff Nation, Scott Frost is back in the same conference as Colorado. The favorite son at Nebraska, Frost left UCF for greener pastures in Lincoln, only to fail miserably at his alma mater.
When Frost was last in Orlando, he was finishing off a 13-0 “national championship” season in 2017. The UCF team Frost inherits in 2025, however, went 4-8 last season, with a 48-21 home loss to Colorado the first of eight losses in nine games to finish the season. Tell me if this sounds familiar … competition at quarterback … questionable offensive line and linebacker talent … defensive line perhaps the best unit on the team.
Sounds much like the concerns following CU … but the Buffs, pundits tend to forget, are coming off of a 9-4 season, while the Knights are starting over after a 4-8 season.
Schedule … There will be much optimism in Orlando early on, as UCF starts the season with games against Jacksonville State and North Carolina A&T. After that, though, games against North Carolina and Kansas State should bring the Knights back to reality. UCF misses Iowa State, Utah, Arizona State and TCU, so there is a chance of a bowl bid, but the questions for a team with only four returning starters will keep UCF from being a player in the Big 12 race in 2025.
v. Colorado … The Buffs and Knights do not play in 2025.
Rating … Tier Four … This ain’t the American Athletic Conference, Mr. Frost, so going 13-0 at UCF isn’t going to come as easily as it did eight seasons ago. Frost’s name will bring some excitement back to the program, but unless UCF hits on almost all of its transfers, it’s going to be another losing campaign for the Knights.
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Utah
Picked 11th in the Big 12 by ESPN … Athlon: 7th in the Big 12/33rd nationally … Lindy’s: 9th in the Big 12 /38th nationally … Phil Steele: 2nd in the Big 12 … Vegas Insider win total over/under: 7.5 wins …
How much faith do you have in Kyle Whittingham bouncing back after a 5-7 seasons which included a seven-game losing streak after a 4-0 start?
Phil Steele is all in on Whittingham, picking Utah to finish 2nd in the Big 12.
ESPN, though, has Utah finishing 11th in the conference.
Where will Utah finish … probably somewhere in between.
Whittingham has had only three losing seasons in 20 years as Utah’s head coach, so the odds are that Utah will make a bowl game this fall. Like Colorado, Utah has chosen a G5 dual-threat quarterback to lead them, with the Utes bringing in Devon Dampier from New Mexico. One factor in Dampier’s favor: five returning starting offensive linemen, including All-American tackle Spencer Fano. But … how great was the line last season, blocking for a team which finished 102nd nationally in scoring; 115th in total offense? Utah is replacing all of its skill position players, and has only four returning starters on defense.
Utah is always good on defense, and the offense can’t be worse than it was last year. But good enough to contend for a Big 12 title?
Schedule … Workable, but fraught with danger if Utah can’t get its collective act together. Road non-conference games against UCLA and Wyoming should be manageable, but they could also be traps. Utah also has to play Texas Tech, Arizona State, Baylor and Kansas State, together with the always hard-fought Holy War game against BYU.
v. Colorado … The Buffs and Utes will play in Salt Lake City on October 25th.
Rating … Tier Two … Utah will be back with a winning season, but I’m not buying the Utes as a legitimate contender for the Big 12 title. You don’t take a terrible offense, insert all new skill position players, and produce nine or ten wins. Utah’s defense will make every game winnable. That being said, Utah failed to reach 30 points in any Big 12 game last fall … not a recipe for a title contender.
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West Virginia
Picked 14th in the Big 12 by ESPN … Athlon: 14th in the Big 12/70th nationally … Lindy’s: 14th in the Big 12 /66th nationally … Phil Steele: 16th in the Big 12 … Vegas Insider win total over/under: 5.5 wins …
It’s been 17 years since Rich Rodriguez last coached at West Virginia. Prior to his return to Morgantown, Rodriguez had head coaching stops at Michigan, Arizona, and, most recently Jacksonville State.
How well Rodriguez can do at West Virginia may not be known for several years, as the Mountaineers are starting over.
As is Colorado, 2023, starting over.
West Virginia has 52 new transfers on the team, so the stats from the 6-7 2024 team are of little value. The WVU offense has two returning starters; the defense has … well, none.
Six Jacksonville State starters followed Rodriguez to Morgantown, and there are a number of projected starters who are fourth- and fifth-year seniors, so there will be Mountaineers who have starting experience on the team.
Just not starting experience for West Virginia.
Schedule … Not as tough as it could be. There is a potentially difficult home game against Pitt in non-conference play, but games against Robert Morris and Ohio should be manageable. The Mountaineers have to play six road games, but the conference road games include trips to UCF, Kansas, and Houston, three of the teams picked to finish in the lower reaches of the Big 12. With the final two games of the season coming against Arizona State and Texas Tech, WVU fans may be looking at the game against the Buffs on November 8th as the last best chance at a win.
v. Colorado … The Buffs and Mountaineers face each other in Morgantown on November 8th.
Rating … Tier Four … Running back Jahiem White, who ran for 844 yards and seven touchdowns, returns, as does one of the starting wide receivers from last season. The other 20 starters? All new. There could be some hits on the list of 50+ transfers, but it’s hard to imagine there being enough quality transfers to put together a winning season in 2025.
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… Reminder … A look at the first eight Big 12 teams … at least alphabetically … was posted last weekend. Previews of Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, BYU, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston and Iowa State can be found here …
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