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Big 12 Preview – Part One
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The college football season is upon us, with Fall Camps in full swing. CU’s opener against Georgia Tech is now just a month away.
Before we get completely CU-centric, let’s take a look at how the Big 12 race may shake out.
In reviewing CU’s 15 rivals in the impossible-to-predict Big 12, I have put teams into four categories:
– Tier One: A team which is a Big 12 title contender, and a likely Top 25 team nationally;
– Tier Two: A solid team, and a likely bowl participant, but a team with a flaw or two which will prevent them from threatening to win the league;
– Tier Three: A team with bowl aspirations, where the Strive for Six is the main goal, a goal which obtainable if the season plays out as projected; and
– Tier Four: A team going through a rebuilding season. You can squint at the schedule and perhaps find six wins and a bowl bid, but a losing season is the most likely outcome.
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A look at the first eight Big 12 teams … at least alphabetically …
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Arizona
Picked 15th in the Big 12 by ESPN … Athlon: 15th in the Big 12/72nd nationally … Lindy’s: 15th in the Big 12 /74th nationally … Phil Steele: 15th in the Big 12 … Vegas Insider win total over/under: 5.5 wins …
In 2023, Arizona went 10-3 (7-2) in the Wildcats’ final season in the Pac-12, and entered the 2024 season on a seven-game winning streak. Had head coach Jedd Fisch stayed in Tucson, instead of leaving Arizona to become the coach at Washington, the Wildcats might have been one of the favorites to compete for a conference title in their first season in the Big 12.
But Fisch left, and the bottom fell out on the Arizona program. In Brent Brennan’s first season, Arizona went 4-8, losing seven of the final eight games of the 2024 season, including a 34-7 home loss to Colorado.
Quarterback Noah Fifita is back, but that’s about it. Both coordinators are new … as is about half the roster. Both lines have only one starter returning, which is not usually a recipe for success. Arizona ranked 96th in total offense last season, and 105th in total defense. Even with a host of transfers, there are too many holes to plug to expect an immediate resurrection.
Schedule … Not horrible. Arizona plays five of its first six games at home, including likely opening wins against Hawai’i and Weber State. The Wildcats, though, better stack up wins early, as Arizona plays four of its final six games on the road, including a game in Boulder.
v. Colorado … The teams will meet in Boulder on November 1st.
Rating … Tier Four … With a pair of winnable non-conference games, Arizona only needs to go 4-6 against the rest of the schedule to get to a bowl. Oklahoma State comes to Tucson, but two other winnable games – against Houston and Cincinnati – are on the road. It may be another 4-8 season for Brent Brennan in Year Two at Arizona.
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Arizona State
Picked 2nd in the Big 12 by ESPN … Athlon: 2nd in the Big 12/14th nationally … Lindy’s: 1st in the Big 12/14th nationally … Phil Steele: 4th in the Big 12 … Vegas Insider win total over/under: 8.5 wins …
Arizona State made national headlines – and convinced the Big 12 not to issue a preseason media poll this summer – by taking a last-place prediction last fall and turning it into a Big 12 championship. A winnable double-overtime loss to Texas in the CFP quarterfinal was all that kept ASU from a semi-final berth.
The Sun Devils have seven returning starters on offense, including quarterback Sam Leavitt and former Buff wide receiver Jordan Tyson. Gone is All-Everything running back Cam Skattebo, but the Leavitt-to-Tyson connection is poised to pick up the slack on offense.
The defense has an impressive nine returning starters, a unit which finished in the top 40 nationally in both total defense and scoring defense.
Having an 11-3 team which made it to the College Football Playoff last year, plus a lineup with 16 returning starters, are the main reasons why many pundits have ASU as the Big 12 favorite for 2025.
Schedule … One of the main roadblocks to ASU winning the conference again. Arizona State only has five road games, but all of them – at Mississippi State; at Baylor; at Utah; at Iowa State; and at Colorado – could be potential losses. The Sun Devils do miss BYU and both Kansas schools, but do have to play TCU and Texas Tech.
v. Colorado … The teams will meet in Boulder on November 22nd.
Rating … Tier One … One of the favorites to win the Big 12, Arizona State has a tough schedule, but gets well-spaced byes in early October and early November to divide the season into three workable slices. It would be a surprise if ASU isn’t working on a Big 12 title berth when the Sun Devils come to Boulder the weekend before Thanksgiving.
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Baylor
Picked 7th in the Big 12 by ESPN … Athlon: 5th in the Big 12/29th nationally … Lindy’s: 1st in the Big 12/25th nationally … Phil Steele: 4th in the Big 12 … Vegas Insider win total over/under: 7.5 wins …
Baylor opened the 2024 season 2-3, including a tough-to-take overtime loss to Colorado, but rebounded to win its final six Big 12 games. With last season’s strong finish, there is optimism in Waco for the 2025 campaign.
The Bears were dynamic on offense last fall, with over 440 yards of total offense (20th nationally) and 34 points (19th) per game. Nine starters return on offense, including star quarterback Sawyer Robertson, who threw for over 3,000 yards and 28 touchdowns. Most of Robertson’s weapons return, including 1,000-yard rusher Bryson Washington and wide receiver Josh Cameron.
What’s keeping Baylor from making more Top 25 lists is the defense, which ranked in the bottom third nationally last season in most statistical categories. Head coach Dave Aranda hit the transfer portal hard, with numerous potential stars brought to Waco. If the new players work, Baylor will be a tough out. If not, the Bears will be playing in plenty of shootouts in 2025.
Schedule … The nation will know a great deal about Baylor by the end of September. Baylor opens at home against Auburn before traveling to Dallas to take on SMU the following weekend. Two weeks later, another 2024 CFP participant, Arizona State, comes to Waco. If Baylor can survive the first half of the season, the back half is much easier, with only one game against a team which finished with a winning record in 2024.
v. Colorado … The Buffs and Bears do not play in 2025.
Rating … Tier Two … Baylor will excite fans with a prolific offense, but the Bears could have trouble stopping quality offenses from scoring. The season may be a repeat of 2024, with a slow start – at least record-wise – but a strong finish. If Big 12 rivals can’t bury Baylor early, the Bears will be in the hunt for a Big 12 title berth with a soft (UCF; Utah; at Arizona; Houston) November schedule.
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BYU
Picked 3rd in the Big 12 by ESPN … Athlon: 4th in the Big 12/21st nationally … Lindy’s: 6th in the Big 12/30th nationally … Phil Steele: 8th in the Big 12 … Vegas Insider win total over/under: 6.5 wins …
It’s pretty clear no one knows what to expect out of BYU this fall, with Athlon picking the Cougars to finish in the Top 25 nationally, while Phil Steele had BYU 8th in the conference (and that was before quarterback Jake Retzlaff left the team).
Retzlaff’s stats last season weren’t great last season, but his results were, with BYU racing out to a 9-0 record and a No. 6 national ranking before two November losses thwarted Big 12 and national title plans. A 36-14 thumping of CU in the Alamo Bowl was more than enough to convince Buff fans that BYU was for real.
No one is predicting another 11-win season in Provo, but there are plenty of reasons for optimism overall. Some star players from the 13th-ranked defense in the country are gone, but a solid base returns. On offense, the new quarterback will have both the leading rusher (LJ Martin) and leading receiver (Chase Roberts) returning.
Schedule … The new BYU quarterback will have the benefit of easing into the 2025 season, with home games against Portland State and Stanford to open the season. BYU then gets a bye before facing East Carolina and Colorado. The only tough stretch comes in late October/early November, with the Holy War game against Utah before games against Iowa State, Texas Tech, and TCU.
v. Colorado … The Buffs and Cougars will play in Boulder on September 27th.
Rating … Tier Two … BYU will take a step back this season, but not a huge one. After three winnable non-conference games, the Cougars get West Virginia, Arizona, Cincinnati and UCF in conference play. That’s seven wins right there, so getting to eight or nine wins is certainly manageable, even with a new quarterback.
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Cincinnati
Picked 12th in the Big 12 by ESPN … Athlon: 12th in the Big 12/61st nationally … Lindy’s: 11th in the Big 12/53rd nationally … Phil Steele: 9th in the Big 12 … Vegas Insider win total over/under: 6.5 wins …
Cincinnati came to Boulder last fall with a 5-2 record, fresh off of a 24-14 win over eventual Big 12 champion Arizona State. A 34-23 loss to the Buffs, however, started the Bearcats on a five-game losing streak to end the season.
It’s been a steep fall for Cincinnati since participating in the 2021 College Football Playoff, and third-year head coach Scott Satterfield is feeling the heat.
Learning how to finish drives and finish games would be helpful. Last season, Cincinnati, behind quarterback Brendan Sorsby, finished 36th in total offense, but only 89th in scoring offense. As a result, what could have been close wins turned into close losses, with the Bearcats losing four one-score games.
Sorsby is back, along with several offensive linemen, but the receiving corps is almost all brand new. The defense has one of the best names in college football – defensive lineman Dontay Corleone – but must completely start over in the defensive backfield.
Schedule … Buff fans will be cheering for the Bearcats when they open the season against Nebraska in Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, but that will likely be a loss. There are four clearly winnable games – non-conference games against Bowling Green and Northwestern State, plus home conference games against UCF and Arizona – but after that? Oklahoma State and Utah may be getable, but those games are both on the road. The path to six wins and bowl eligibility is there, but it won’t be easy.
v. Colorado … The Buffs and Bearcats don’t play in 2025.
Rating … Tier Four … Head coach Scott Satterfield is coaching for his job, and that may get Cincinnati to six wins and a bowl game. Looking past that for more wins, though, takes some faith that a completely new receiving corps and a completely new defensive backfield will come through.
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Colorado
Picked 10th in the Big 12 by ESPN … Athlon: 10th in the Big 12/50th nationally … Lindy’s: 12th in the Big 12/54th nationally … Phil Steele: 13th in the Big 12 … Vegas Insider win total over/under: 6.5 wins …
Colorado fans have had to wonder why the pundits are so down this off-season on a CU team which finished 9-4 last season. The Buffs are universally picked to finish in the bottom half of the conference, with a return to a bowl game the only realistic goal.
Getting past the “How can they win without Travis and Shedeur?” and the anti-Coach Prime bias, there is this:
CU’s offense has one returning starter.
Sad, but basically true. Offensive tackle Jordan Seaton returns, but after that … CU’s offense is pretty much starting from scratch. There are potentially good quarterbacks, potentially good running backs, potentially good receivers, and potentially good offensive linemen, but very little in demonstrable Power Four experience.
The offensive line should be the best in Coach Prime’s three seasons in Boulder, and the rushing attack should be better, but there is justification for skepticism. CU has finished last in the nation in rushing both seasons under Coach Prime, so there is a strong headwind against believing there will be significant improvement this fall.
The Buff defense, though, even without Travis Hunter, should be good. The unit was in the Top 50 in both total defense and scoring defense for the first time in a decade, and there is plenty of talent returning. If the inside linebackers can be even mediocre, Robert Livingston will have another solid lineup.
Schedule … CU gets seven home games for the first time since 1982, with the Buffs finally getting a schedule most other programs regularly enjoy. Four of the first five games are at home, with the lone road game in that stretch coming against a Houston team which is coming off of a 4-8 season. The Buffs better make it to six wins by early November, though, as CU finishes the season against league favorites Arizona State and Kansas State.
Rating … Tier Two … I have to be a homer here. If you gave me a blind test of a team with no returning skill position players, together with questions along the offensive line, I would probably rate them as a team in search of six wins and a bowl bid. The Buffs, with wins over Wyoming and Delaware in non-conference play seemingly assured, only need to go 4-6 the rest of the way to get to a bowl. I can see the Buffs getting to their second straight bowl – an accomplishment in and of itself for the program – but there are too many questions to assume a second straight nine-win season.
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Houston
Picked 16th in the Big 12 by ESPN … Athlon: 11th in the Big 12/51st nationally … Lindy’s: 10th in the Big 12/48th nationally … Phil Steele: 11th in the Big 12 … Vegas Insider win total over/under: 6.5 wins …
Houston was half a team last fall, which helped lead to a 4-8, 2-7 finish. The Cougars finished the season with a top 25 defense, giving up less than 325 yards per game. At the same time, Houston was close to dead last in the nation in scoring offense, coming in with only 14.0 points per game. The Cougars were shut out by Iowa State and Cincinnati, and were held to ten points or less by UNLV, Arizona, and Baylor.
Enter Conner Weigman, former Texas A&M quarterback. Weigman threw for 2,700 yards and 19 touchdowns in 13 career starts, but was often injured. This might not bode well with an offensive line with at least three new offensive linemen. The defense, meanwhile, returns only four starters, losing five of its top six tacklers. Two projected starters at linebacker missed last season with injuries.
Schedule … Tailored to get to six wins and a bowl. Houston only leaves town once before October 11th, and has Stephen F. Austin and Rice before facing the Buffs in a Friday night game on national television. Home games against Arizona and West Virginia will also help Houston rise above last season’s 4-8 finish
v. Colorado … The Buffs and Cougars will play in Houston on Friday, September 12th.
Rating … Tier Three … Conner Weigman gives Houston hope of more production on offense, but Weigman will need help (and to stay healthy) if the Cougars are to produce a winning season. The schedule has three winnable non-conference games, so a bowl is a realistic goal in the second season of the Willie Fritz era.
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Iowa State
Picked 9th in the Big 12 by ESPN … Athlon: 4th in the Big 12/23rd nationally … Lindy’s: 5th in the Big 12/22nd nationally … Phil Steele: 3rd in the Big 12 … Vegas Insider win total over/under: 7.5 wins …
Can a season be decided in a Week Zero game?
Iowa State plays Kansas State in Dublin, Ireland, in Week Zero, with the winner given an immediate leg up in the Big 12 title chase. The loser of that game, though, will have an uphill climb to national relevance.
Quarterback Rocco Becht, who led the Cyclones to their first ten-win season in program history, returns, along with most of a productive offensive line. Two 1,000-yard receivers were lost to the NFL Draft, but leading rusher Carson Hansen returns.
The Cyclone defense was No. 1 in the nation in pass defense last fall … and No. 109 in rushing defense. Overall, the defense was good enough to hold teams to 22.9 points per game. With only one starter back on the defensive line, Iowa State will have to figure out how to stop the run if the Cyclones want to return to the Big 12 title game in 2025.
Schedule … If … and it’s a big if … Iowa State can get past Kansas State in the opener in Ireland, only a home game against Iowa stands between ISU and an undefeated record when the Cyclones come to Boulder in early October. After facing the Buffs, Iowa State gets a bye week to prepare for home games against BYU and Arizona State – games which could decide the Big 12 title game participants.
v. Colorado … The Buffs and Cyclones will face off in Boulder on October 11th.
Rating … Tier One … Iowa State won 11 games last season, a school record. All that is left now is for the Cyclones to win their first conference title since 1912. A 45-19 loss to Arizona State in the 2024 title game should provide the Cyclones plenty of incentive to worth their way into title game contention this November.
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… Coming next weekend … The remaining eight teams … Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech, UCF, Utah and West Virginia …
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