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Vegas to Coach Prime: “Prove Us Wrong”
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There are two things to bear in mind when checking out lines set by Las Vegas bookmakers.
First, Vegas lines are not predicting anything. The lines are based upon where the oddsmakers feel they can get equal betting on both sides of the line. If Vegas sets the line for a game at 6.5-points, and there is heavy betting on one side of the line, the line will be readjusted.
That being said, Vegas is pretty good when it comes to telling the betting public – and the general public – how a game is likely to unfold. If a team is a double-digit underdog, everyone knows that the underdog’s chances of actually winning the game aren’t that great.
The other thing to bear in mind when viewing lines set by Las Vegas bookmakers …
They are not stupid.
Las Vegas has as many analysts doing research as NASA has scientists viewing the universe. Lines are not chosen randomly when they are set. Significant amounts of time and research are devoted to making sure Vegas makes the most money off of the betting public.
As a result, when Vegas talks … people listen.
So what does it tell the Buff Nation when FanDuel puts CU at the bottom of its odds projections?
Recently, FanDuel dropped their lines for over/under on wins by Big 12 teams, with CU bringing up the rear of the conference …
11.5: Texas Tech
8.5: BYU, Utah
7.5: Arizona, Houston, Kansas State
6.5: Arizona State, Baylor, Oklahoma State, TCU
5.5: Cincinnati, Iowa State, Kansas, UCF, West Virginia
4.5: Colorado
Similarly FanDuel posted the following odds for the chances for each Big 12 team to win the conference this fall …
- Texas Tech … -115
- Utah … 700
- BYU … 750
- Houston … 1800
- TCU … 2000
- Baylor … 2200
- Kansas State … 2200
- Arizona … 2200
- Arizona State … 2500
- Oklahoma State … 3500
- Kansas … 3500
- UCF … 4500
- West Virginia … 6500
- Cincinnati … 6500
- Iowa State … 7000
- Colorado … 10000
Quick translation: Colorado is not given much chance at doing anything positive this year in the Big 12. It’s clear that Vegas has zero faith in what is going on in the Champions Center. There are complete overhauls going on at Iowa State and Oklahoma State, and there are 49 true freshmen on the roster at West Virginia … but all three teams are given a better chance at winning the Big 12 than what is given CU.
What Vegas is saying: “Coach Prime: Prove Us Wrong”.
Or, perhaps a better title for this Essay would be: “Coach Prime: You Suck!”.
That’s hard to take in the middle of spring practices. Spring is supposed to be about rebirth, renewal – a fresh start.
Everyone is undefeated in the spring.
Except CU.
It’s difficult, if not impossible, to find a national story about Colorado football which has a positive spin (CBS Sports this week projected another 1-8 Big 12 season for CU).
Locally, though, there are some CU beat writers who are trying to find the best in their Buffs. This week, Scott Proctor at DNVR.com posted his “5 Reasons Why Colorado Football Should Bounce Back in 2026“.
Let’s walk through Scott’s reasons for optimism, and look at how a Vegas analyst might respond …
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No. 1 … Colorado football’s best coaching staff of Prime era?
Deion Sanders had a clear shift in his coaching philosophy this offseason.
His previous two coordinators had extensive NFL backgrounds and not much experience coaching at the college level. Colorado football’s new coordinators have a combined 23 years of college coaching experience.
After the Buffs averaged just 20.9 points per game last season, Coach Prime hired one of the most innovative offensive minds in the sport: Brennan Marion. Over the last three seasons, Marion’s Go-Go offense has averaged 34.8 points per game. That’s particularly important for the Colorado football team which is 10-0 when scoring 30+ points dating back to 2024.
“I really feel as though we have the best staff that has been assembled in my tenure by far,” Deion Sanders said earlier this month.
Vegas Counterpoint …
Buff fans are hanging their hats of optimism on the Brennan Marion peg, in large part because most of the other hires earned a collective shrug from the college football world. Marion’s offense is supposed to bring an up-tempo style to Boulder, and give Buff fans something to cheer about, a year after they watched CU struggle in almost every facet of offensive football in 2025.
But even the best new hire for CU is not without reservation.
There are 68 Power Four conference schools. Between them, 32 new offensive coordinators were hired this off-season, including eight new offensive coordinators in the Big 12 alone.
Of those 32 open positions … how many schools were vying for Brennan Marion’s services? How many other Power Four conference schools were laying out the red carpet for Marion, hoping that he would join their staffs?
Go back and look … I’ll wait.
Yes, CU fans should be excited about the Brennan Marion offense. After watching CU struggle to push pass 20 points per game last fall, the promise of 30 points per game is intoxicating.
But we’ll see it when we see it.
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No. 2 … Returning production
This offseason, the Colorado football team added transfers who combined for 182 starts in 2025. That’s the third-most of any team.
There was a clear emphasis on experience and production in the portal this time around after a handful of evaluation whiffs last year. The Buffs’ recruiting staff targeted proven players (even if they came from the G5, FCS ranks) over transfers from Power 4 schools with little to no film.
A strong transfer portal haul fueled the Colorado football team’s success in 2024. History could repeat itself this fall.
Vegas Counterpoint …
Everyone wants to be this year’s Indiana. Instead of taking disgruntled four-star backups from the elite programs, the latest recipe for success is to take players with proven experience, even if it was at lower levels, and mold them into a winning program.
That seems to be the projected winning formula for Oklahoma State. OSU lost a record 66 transfers to the Portal, hiring North Texas coach Eric Morris to right the ship. Morris brings with him to Stillwater his star quarterback (Drew Mestemaker), running back (Caleb Hawkins) and wide receiver (Wyatt Young) from the Mean Green. Oklahoma State hasn’t won a game against a Power Four opponent since 2023 … but is still being projected as a bowl team in Year One under Eric Morris.
When Coach Prime came to Boulder, he brought with him from Jackson State future NFL starters in Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter. He took over a team which had gone 1-11 the year before … and went 4-8.
This is Year Four for Coach Prime … a little to late in the game to be just figuring out how to build a winner.
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No. 3 … Turnover and injury luck
Turnovers can win or lose a game. Just ask Colorado football fans.
The Buffs were minus-2 in turnover margin last season which ranked 10th in the Big 12. That made them the 116th-ranked team (out of 136) in turnover luck, according to ESPN. Colorado struggled to create/force turnovers (just 15 all season) and had far too many giveaways (17) for a team that struggled to consistently find the end zone.
As bad as the Buffs’ turnover luck was, their injury luck was even worse.
The Colorado football team ranked 129th (tied with UAB) in lineup consistency last season due to being decimated by injuries on both sides of the ball. The bottom 16 teams in lineup consistency had a combined win percentage of 0.297. Not a coincidence.
Vegas Counterpoint …
“Lineup consistency” is more than just injuries. Coach Prime had three different starting quarterbacks last fall. Almost every game had a new featured running back. The wide receiver rotation was as much about the inability to find a go-to star as it was about depth of talent.
As to being lousy at forcing turnovers … You know the old saying: You make your own luck.
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No. 4 … Julian Lewis
The Colorado football team got bad quarterback play last season. There’s no sugar-coating that.
Kaidon Salter was benched twice for his inconsistencies and his seven INTs contributed to the Buffs’ bad turnover luck. Luckily for Colorado football fans, Julian Lewis rarely puts the ball in harm’s way.
On 96 pass attempts as a true freshman, Lewis had zero INTs and just two turnover-worthy plays. The former five-star recruit also showed an ability to thrive under pressure.
Now with another offseason under his belt and an innovative offensive coordinator, Lewis could be viewed as one of the top QBs in college football by season’s end.
Vegas Counterpoint …
If we’re being honest, it’s a stretch to believe that Julian Lewis will be viewed as one of the top quarterbacks in the Big 12 by season’s end, much less one of the top quarterbacks in college football.
In a preseason ranking of Big 12 quarterbacks by CBS Sports, a list which includes Brendan Sorsby (Texas Tech), Noah Fifita (Arizona), Bear Bachmeier (BYU), Conner Weigman (Houston), Drew Mestemaker (Oklahoma State), DJ Lagway (Baylor) and Devin Dampier (Utah) – all of whom have better resumes than does Julian Lewis – Lewis came in at No. 11 in the Big 12.
One of the best quarterbacks in college football?
Julian Lewis has work to do just to get into the top half of his own conference.
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No. 5 … A motivated Coach Prime
Redshirt junior RJ Johnson said Wednesday that Deion Sanders is a lot more hands on with the cornerbacks this year.
It could be because Coach Prime is feeling the pressure, but it also could be because he’s in a much better physical condition. It was around this time last year that he began having health complications.
Deion Sanders was battling bladder cancer last April and wasn’t involved in evaluating many of the incoming spring transfers ahead of the 2025 season. This time around, Coach Prime says he’s “hand-picked, hand-selected” each of his new players.
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Vegas Counterpoint …
It is certainly a plus that Coach Prime is healthier this spring … at least as far as we know.
Coach Prime was around all of last spring as well. It wasn’t until after spring practices that Coach Prime disappeared, leaving for Texas and then not coming back until July. It remains to be seen whether Coach Prime plans to enjoy the entire spring and summer in Boulder, working on building a better program.
There was a time in the not too distant past – all of two years ago – when Coach Prime was all over the airwaves. Multiple national interviews and stories about the CU head coach and his program. Now, the number of national interviews and press conferences Coach Prime has given since the end of last season can be counted on one hand.
Does this mean that Coach Prime is hunkered down, focusing on coaching instead the national spotlight?
Buff fans can only hope.
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Scott Proctor’s “5 Reasons Why Colorado Football Should Bounce Back in 2026” is a fine article, and I’m not trying to make light of it in any way.
What I am trying to point out is that the final line of the article …If the Colorado football team has more hits than misses out of the portal and has its head coach at 100% health, the Buffs could be a Big 12 sleeper... is not the consensus for the CU program nationally.
Vegas has little to no faith that Colorado in 2026 will even get to a bowl game, much less challenge for the Big 12 title.
The challenge from the desert is clear …
“Coach Prime: Prove Us Wrong”.
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