First Look: Big 12 – Texas Teams

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First Look: Big 12 – Texas Teams

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Preseason magazines are still three months away. Fall Camp is a full five months from opening.

So … naturally … it must be time to take our first look at the Big 12.

For the first time in years, rosters are largely in place (thanks to the elimination of the second Transfer Portal window). The Transfer Portal still contains thousands of names, but few of those players who may still join rosters will significantly alter the fortunes of a Power Four team.

With a tad more stability in the ranks, there are plenty of predictions out in cyberspace for fans to review. We know, for example, from the “Way Too Early Top 25” projections, who will be the favorites in the Big 12 race (Texas Tech; BYU) … But how will the rest of the conference shake out?

Let’s see what the Buffs will be up against this fall. Looking at the rosters and the schedules, we’ll put the teams into one of four tiers:

• Tier One: Big 12 conference title contenders, and, by extension, the College Football Playoff;
• Tier Two: Potential conference title contenders, but missing an element or two. A winning season and a bowl bid are likely;
• Tier Three: A winning season is a realistic goal, but conference title contention is not in the offing; and
• Tier Four: Regrouping, rebuilding, starting over. Wins will come rarely, and will need to be savored.

Spoiler Alert … With a bulging middle class, the Big 12 doesn’t have four teams neatly fitting into each Tier. Members in Tier One and Tier Four will number fewer than those finding themselves in Tier Two and Tier Three.

First, we previewed the Arizona and Utah schools (Essay can be found here). Next up were the former Big Eight schools (Essay can be found here).

Up now … The four Texas schools of the Big 12: Baylor; Houston, TCU; and Texas Tech.

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Baylor

2025 season

• Record … 5-7; 3-6 … lost five of the final six games of the season
• Rankings; offense … Total offense: 18th; Scoring offense: 34th
• Rankings; defense … Total defense: 87th; Scoring defense: 120th

Off-season 

• Recruiting rankings … 65th; 14th in the Big 12
• Transfer Portal … 31st; 5th in the Big 12
• Overall … 58th; 15th in the Big 12

2026 Schedule

• Non-conference: Auburn; Prairie View; Louisiana Tech
• Big 12: Toughest: at Arizona State; at BYU; Texas Tech … Easiest: Iowa State; at UCF
• v. Colorado: The teams will play in Waco on September 26th

Thoughts … There will be four new head coaches in the Big 12 this season … but there are a number of Baylor Bear fans who were hoping that number might be five.

Dave Aranda has been the head coach at Baylor since 2020, and was the toast of Waco in 2021 when he led the Bears to a 12-2 record, a Big 12 title, and a No. 5 final ranking in the AP poll. Since then, however, the Bears have gone 22-28, with three losing campaigns in the past four seasons. Last fall, Baylor finished with a 5-7 record, including five losses in the final six games. Instead of firing Aranda last November, though, Baylor President Linda Livingstone gave Aranda the dreaded vote of confidence.

Baylor picked up former Florida quarterback DJ Lagway in the Transfer Portal, along with some other talent – including CU wide receiver Dre’lon Miller – to offset some of the Bears’ portal losses. Baylor also brings in a new defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman, coming to Waco by way of Kansas State

Pre-Spring Ranking … Tier Three. There is optimism of a revival for Dave Aranda and the Bears, largely due to the Baylor’s schedule. The Bears open in a telling game against Auburn in Atlanta, but then don’t leave Waco until October. Baylor could face Colorado as an undefeated team in late September in a game which could decide which coach will be on the hotseat the remainder of the season. The Bears had better get to win six by early November, though, as Baylor finishes the season with games at BYU, v. Texas Tech, and at Houston.

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Houston

2025 season

• Record … 10-3, 6-3 … defeated LSU in the Texas Bowl … Finished No. 22 in the final AP poll
• Rankings; offense … Total offense: 60th; Scoring offense: 55th
• Rankings; defense … Total defense: 47th; Scoring defense: 47th

Off-season 

• Recruiting rankings … 37th; 5th in the Big 12
• Transfer Portal … 50th; 10th in the Big 12
• Overall … 43rd; 9th in the Big 12

2026 Schedule

• Non-conference: Oregon State; Southern; at Georgia Southern
• Big 12: Toughest: at Texas Tech; Utah … Easiest: UCF; Cincinnati; Oklahoma State
• v. Colorado: The teams will meet in Boulder on November 14th

Thoughts … All Willie Fritz does is win games.

Houston’s head coach opened his head coaching career in junior college, taking something named the Blinn Buccaneers (that’s in Texas, in case you were wondering) to a 39-5-1 record. Fritz then moved on to win almost 100 games at Central Missouri, went 40-15 at Sam Houston State, and 17-7 at Georgia Southern. Fritz then moved on to Tulane … taking a team which went 2-10 in 2021 to records of 12-2 and 11-2 the next two seasons before being hired by Houston.

In 2024, Houston went 4-8 … and then surprised everyone with a 10-3 record last season. Houston finished 22nd in the final AP poll, and it would be a surprise if the Cougars are not ranked in the preseason poll this fall.

The Cougars were ahead of schedule in Year 2 under Willie Fritz. Now, the roster has only gotten better. Running back Makhi Hughes transfers in to join star returning quarterback Conner Weigman. But really, No. 1 overall recruit Keisean Henderson gives Houston fans the most hope for the future, both near and long term. Henderson is expected to play behind Weigman this fall, but Houston will find ways to get their most talented recruit in program history involved as a freshman.

Pre-Spring Ranking … Tier One. Houston fans have circled September 19th on their calendars. The Cougars will take on Texas Tech at Lubbock in a game which could vault Houston into the College Football Playoff discussion. Houston’s non-conference schedule is ridiculously easy, with games against Oregon State (2-10 last season), Southern and Georgia Southern. In Big 12 play, Houston gets most of the teams in the bottom of the league – with home games against UCF, Oklahoma State and Cincinnati, with road games against West Virginia, Kansas State, and yes … Colorado. Another ten-win season is likely … with perhaps more.

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TCU

2025 season

• Record … 9-4, 5-4 … Defeated USC in the Alamo Bowl … Ranked No. 25 in the final AP poll …
• Rankings; offense … Total offense: 27th; Scoring offense: 40th
• Rankings; defense … Total defense: 73rd; Scoring defense: 72nd

Off-season 

• Recruiting rankings … 46th; 8th in the Big 12
• Transfer Portal … 58th; 14th in the Big 12
• Overall … 61st; 13th in the Big 12

2026 Schedule

• Non-conference: North Carolina (in Dublin); Grambling; Arkansas State
• Big 12: Toughest: BYU; at Texas Tech … Easiest: West Virginia; Kansas; Kansas State
• v. Colorado: The teams don’t play in 2026. CU will play at TCU in 2027

Thoughts … For the second time in four years under head coach Sonny Dykes, TCU finished as a nationally ranked team, with the 9-4 Horned Frogs finishing 25th in the final AP poll.

The biggest hurdle this fall is replacing star quarterback Josh Hoover, who set a school passing record before transferring to Indiana. Backup Ken Seals also graduated. The Frogs will rely on Harvard transfer Jaden Craig, an experienced FCS starter with NFL upside, but any drop-off in elite passing production could lead to a dip in wins.

The defense must replace multi-time All-Big 12 safety Bud Clark and leading tackler Namdi Obiazor, both heading to the NFL Draft. Replacing their veteran leadership in the secondary and linebacker corps is a primary concern.

Pre-Spring Ranking … Tier Two. Three games will decide TCU’s season. The Horned Frogs open the season in Dublin against North Carolina. Last season, TCU spoiled Bill Belichick’s debut as head coach at North Carolina, with a 48-14 rout in Chapel Hill. College football fans, though, don’t need to be reminded that the loser of the game in Dublin – including most recently Nebraska, Florida State, and Kansas State – have seen their seasons go south after falling in the season opener. Avoiding a loss to revenge-minded North Carolina is a must for the Horned Frogs.

TCU also has to play both of the Big 12 heavyweights – BYU at home on October 7th; then Texas Tech on the road Thanksgiving weekend. Wins in those two games could send TCU to the big 12 title game, but having a new quarterback who last took snaps against Ivy League schools makes this a challenge.

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Texas Tech

2025 season

• Record … 12-2, 8-1 … Big 12 champions … Lost 23-0 to Oregon in the College Football Playoff … No. 7 final ranking
• Rankings; offense … Total offense: 10th; Scoring offense: 7th
• Rankings; defense … Total defense: 3rd; Scoring defense: 3rd

Off-season 

• Recruiting rankings … 18th; 1st in the Big 12
• Transfer Portal … 10th; 2nd in the Big 12
• Overall … 14th; 1st in the Big 12

2026 Schedule

• Non-conference: Abilene Christian; at Oregon State; Sam Houston
• Big 12: Toughest: Houston; TCU … Easiest: West Virginia; at Oklahoma State
• v. Colorado: The teams will meet in Boulder on October 3rd

Thoughts … For Texas Tech, the embarrassing 23-0 College Football Playoff loss to Oregon not withstanding, the 2025 season was the stuff of dreams. Texas Tech won the Big 12 title for the first time in school history (and the first conference title since winning the Border Conference in 1955). Texas Tech was a national story, with the Red Raiders – and their billionaire supporter – giving the rest of the nation the blueprint for how to buy a title.

Rather than resting on their laurels this off-season, Texas Tech went all-in on buying players for the 2026 campaign, most notably Cincinnati quarterback Brent Sorsby (who is being sued by his former team for a $1 million for breach of contract). Texas Tech was in the Top 20 nationally in both high school and Transfer Portal rankings, giving Red Raider fans every reason to believe a second conference title is in the offing.

Pre-Spring Ranking … Tier One. For a team which has national title aspirations, Texas Tech has a ridiculously easy path. No BYU or Utah on the schedule, with the toughest two games – against Houston and TCU – both at home. In fact, here is Texas Tech’s road schedule for 2026 … at Oregon State (2-10 in 2025); at Colorado (3-9); at Cincinnati (7-6); at Oklahoma State (1-11); at Baylor (5-7).

It’s good to be the king.

Anything short of a return trip to the Big 12 title game for the Red Raiders would be considered a disappointment in 2026.

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At the End of the Third Quarter Grades – The Four Corner schools, Big Eight schools, and Texas schools:

• Tier One – BYU; Texas Tech; Houston
• Tier Two – Arizona; Utah; Arizona State; TCU
• Tier Three – Kansas; Kansas State; Oklahoma State; Baylor
• Tier Four – Iowa State

Conclusion … The state of Texas is one of the leading sources for high school talent in the country, and the Texas schools are taking advantage. Texas has only four of the teams in the Big 12, but three of the four – Texas Tech; Houston; and TCU – harbor Big 12 title aspirations.

Texas Tech will be in national spotlight all season, with Houston looking to make a national statement as well. Of the four schools, only Baylor has significant issues, with head coach Dave Aranda coaching for his job this fall.

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Up next … The Eastern time zone schools … and CU.

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This post, about the Spring Practices game, from the 2026 Season, is filed under Article.
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