First Look: Big 12 – Former Big Eight Foes

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First Look: Big 12 – Former Big Eight Foes

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Spring practices have yet to begin. Preseason magazines are still four months away. Fall Camp is a full six months from opening.

So … naturally … it must be time to take our first look at the Big 12.

For the first time in years, rosters are largely in place (thanks to the elimination of the second Transfer Portal window). The Transfer Portal still contains thousands of names, but few of those players who may still join rosters will significantly alter the fortunes of a Power Four team.

With a tad more stability in the ranks, there are plenty of predictions out in cyberspace for fans to review. We know, for example, from the “Way Too Early Top 25” projections, who will be the favorites in the Big 12 race (Texas Tech; BYU) … But how will the rest of the conference shake out?

Over the next two weekends, we’ll sift through the 16-team conference, and see what the Buffs will be up against this fall. Looking at the rosters and the schedules, we’ll put the teams into one of four tiers:

• Tier One: Big 12 conference title contenders, and, by extension, the College Football Playoff;
• Tier Two: Potential conference title contenders, but missing an element or two. A winning season and a bowl bid are likely;
• Tier Three: A winning season is a realistic goal, but conference title contention is not in the offing; and
• Tier Four: Regrouping, rebuilding, starting over. Wins will come rarely, and will need to be savored.

Spoiler Alert … With a bulging middle class, the Big 12 doesn’t have four teams neatly fitting into each Tier. Members in Tier One and Tier Four will number fewer than those finding themselves in Tier Two and Tier Three.

Last weekend, we previewed the Arizona and Utah schools (Essay can be found here).

Up now … CU’s former Big Eight rivals: Kansas; Kansas State; Iowa State; and Oklahoma State.

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Kansas

2025 season

• Record … 5-7; 3-6 lost five of the final six games of the season
• Rankings; offense … Total offense: 66th; Scoring offense: 62nd
• Rankings; defense … Total defense: 85th; Scoring defense: 80th

Off-season 

• Recruiting rankings … 60th; 12th in the Big 12
• Transfer Portal … 52nd; 12th in the Big 12
• Overall … 64th; 15th in the Big 12

2026 Schedule

• Non-conference: Long Island University; Missouri; Middle Tennessee State
• Big 12: Toughest: at Utah; at TCU; BYU … Easiest: UCF; at West Virginia
• v. Colorado: The teams won’t meet in 2026; the teams will meet in Boulder in 2027

Thoughts … It may come as something of a surprise, but, since CU rejoined the Big 12 two seasons ago, CU actually has a better overall record (12-13) than does Kansas (10-14). Kansas head coach Lance Leipold had been linked to several coaching openings in the past several years, but the bloom may now be falling a bit off of the rose. When CU played Kansas in Kansas City near the end of the 2024 season, the Jayhawks took the 16th-ranked Buffs to the woodshed, thumping the Buffs, 37-21. Since then, however, Kansas has gone 5-8, finishing the 2025 season losing five of their final six games.

Quarterback Jalon Daniels returns for his seventh – yes, seventh! – season. In his six previous seasons (amazingly all with Kansas), Daniels has thrown for almost 10,000 yards, but with 31 interceptions to go with his 67 touchdowns. Daniels doesn’t really strike that much fear in opposing defenses, and, with 33 seniors graduating, Kansas has a great deal of rebuilding to do.

Pre-Spring Ranking … Tier Three. Kansas will try to get back into bowl contention after two straight 5-7 seasons, but the scheduling gods did not do the Jayhawks any favors. Kansas gets Missouri in non-conference play, then take off to play Arizona State in Wembley Stadium in London the following Saturday. The Jayhawks are also one of four Big 12 teams to play back-to-back Big 12 road games (with neither being easy: at Utah; then at Kansas State) and face two teams coming off of byes (TCU and rival Kansas State).

With a infusion of new talent rated no better than 15th overall in the Big 12, and a daunting schedule, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Kansas finishes with a record right about the 5-7 mark the Jayhawks have hit the last two seasons.

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Kansas State

2025 season

• Record … 6-6, 5-4 … Opted out of playing in a bowl game
• Rankings; offense … Total offense: 81st; Scoring offense: 52nd
• Rankings; defense … Total defense: 82nd; Scoring defense: 76th

Off-season 

• Recruiting rankings … 51st; 9th in the Big 12
• Transfer Portal … 39th; 6th in the Big 12
• Overall … 50th; 9th in the Big 12

2026 Schedule

• Non-conference: Nicholls State; Washington State; Tulane
• Big 12: Toughest: at Arizona State; at TCU … Easiest: at Cincinnati; Oklahoma State
• v. Colorado: The teams will meet in Boulder on Halloween, October 31st

Thoughts … After the abrupt retirement of Chris Klieman as head coach after the 2025 season, Collin Klein is taking over as head coach. Collin Klein is a household name for Wildcat fans, as he was the K-State quarterback from 2008-12, leading the Wildcats to 10-3 and 11-2 records his final two seasons. Klein has spent most of his coaching career with Kansas State, either as the quarterbacks coach or offensive coordinator, or both.

Klein comes to Manhattan after two years as the offensive coordinator at Texas A&M. Things were going well last season, with the Aggies going 11-0 before falling 27-17 to Texas and 10-3 to Miami in the College Football Playoff.

A new head coach often brings instability. Both of the coordinators are new, and there are only two two assistants returning. Quarterback Avery Johnson returns, which helps, but Johnson has failed to become the break out star he was predicted to be. Adding to concerns is the roster overhaul, with over 50 players leaving from last season.

Pre-Spring Ranking … Tier Three. If Kansas State is an improved team, the schedule is favorable. The Wildcats leave Manhattan only once before October 24th, but there a a few potential landmines. Home non-conference games against Washington State and 2025 CFP participant Tulane are not guaranteed wins, and the Wildcats must go on the road to face Arizona State and TCU in the back half. This looks to be a team destined to finish somewhere between 5-7 and 7-5, but, with Collin Klein in his first year as a head coach, I’m going with K-State losing a game or two this year that they wouldn’t have lost last season.

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Iowa State

2025 season

• Record … 8-4, 5-4 … Opted out of playing in a bowl game
• Rankings; offense … Total offense: 59th; Scoring offense: 69th
• Rankings; defense … Total defense: 54th; Scoring defense: 26th

Off-season 

• Recruiting rankings … 54th; 10th in the Big 12
• Transfer Portal … 60th; 15th in the Big 12
• Overall … 61st; 13th in the Big 12

2026 Schedule

• Non-conference: Southeast Missouri State; at Iowa; Bowling Green
• Big 12: Toughest: at BYU; Utah … Easiest: Oklahoma State; Cincinnati; West Virginia
• v. Colorado: The teams don’t play in 2026. CU will play in Ames in 2027

Thoughts … It’s hard not to feel sorry for Iowa State. The Cyclones under Matt Campbell continuously overachieved, and now Campbell has taken his talents (and most of his talented players) to Penn State. No fewer than 23 Iowa State players transferred to Penn State, including quarterback Rocco Becht.

Incoming is Washington State head coach Jimmy Rogers, who brings with him over a dozen WSU Cougars – but no one who is considered to be a game-changer. Rogers was in Pullman for all of one season, posting a 6-6 record. Previously, Rogers led South Dakota State to an FCS national championship, so he is familiar with the region … which is nice.

Pre-Spring Ranking … Tier Four. Like Collin Klein at Kansas State, Iowa State’s new head coach gets the advantage of some home cooking in his first season at the helm, with Iowa State leaving Ames only once before mid-October. The problem is that the lone September road game is on the road against a likely Top 25 team in Iowa, along with a home game against Utah. Iowa State then has to play on the road against BYU, Arizona and Baylor in a four game stretch.

There isn’t much talent in Ames, and Iowa State is taking on a Big 12 schedule with a head coach with one season of FBS head coaching experience. A bowl game would be a major achievement in Year One of the Jimmy Rogers era at Iowa State.

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Oklahoma State

2025 season

• Record … 1-11, 0-9 … Only victory coming in opener against UT-Martin; finished with 11 straight losses
• Rankings; offense … Total offense: 128th; Scoring offense: 132nd
• Rankings; defense … Total defense: 114th; Scoring defense: 124th

Off-season 

• Recruiting rankings … 68th; 15th in the Big 12
• Transfer Portal … 7th; 1st in the Big 12
• Overall … 45th; 8th in the Big 12

2026 Schedule

• Non-conference: at Tulsa; Oklahoma State; Murray State
• Big 12: Toughest: Texas Tech; at Arizona State … Easiest: UCF; at West Virginia
• v. Colorado: The teams will meet in Stillwater on October 24th

Thoughts … When Coach Prime stripped the Colorado roster down to the studs in 2023, the national outcry could be heard in Antarctica. When new Oklahoma State head coach Eric Morris said goodbye to ten more players than did Coach Prime … he was lauded as an innovator who will reenergize an Oklahoma State team coming off of back-to-back 1-11 seasons.

Whatever.

Morris comes to Stillwater from North Texas, bringing with him 16 players who helped the Mean Green post a 12-2 record last season. Most important on the list is quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who was the No. 3 overall prospect in the transfer portal after leading the country in passing this season at North Texas. Also coming in is running back Caleb Hawkins, who was the No. 2 running back in the portal and was No. 1 nationally in rushing touchdowns and No. 5 in rushing yards as a freshman at UNT last season.

CU brought in Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter … and went 4-8 in Year One under Coach Prime.

Oklahoma State is bringing in Drew Mestemaker and Caleb Hawkins … and will go ?? in Year One under Eric Morris.

Pre-Spring Ranking … Tier Three. Logic suggests that Oklahoma State is a Tier Four team, and will be lucky to get to four wins in 2026. National pundits, though, have fallen in love with the new Cowboys, with Jon Wilner at the San Jose Mercury News putting Oklahoma State in his preseason Top 25 (at No. 17, no less).

Oklahoma opens at Tulsa (a team which beat OSU in Stillwater last season), then get a rude introduction to Power Four football with a game against Oregon. Oklahoma State must also play Texas Tech, and must play Houston and Arizona State on the road. If this team, which has one exactly one game since 2023, gets to a bowl game, it will be a major achievement.

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Halftime Grades – The Four Corner schools and Big Eight schools: 

• Tier One – BYU
• Tier Two – Arizona; Utah; Arizona State
• Tier Three – Kansas; Kansas State; Oklahoma State
• Tier Four – Iowa State

Conclusion … Five teams from the old Big Eight are currently playing in the Big 12 … and none of them are any good.

Oklahoma State was good two years ago, but then again, so was Colorado. Iowa State and the Kansas schools have been consistently above average, but not of conference title quality. Now, as college football turns its attention to the 2026 season, none of the five are considered threats to the top of the conference.

Three of the four teams discussed above have new head coaches, with no guarantees of future success. It’s going to be a season of transition for the middle America teams in the Big 12. If three of four make bowl games, it will be a significant achievement.

More likely, these teams will be heading into November looking for a few more wins and bowl eligibility.

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Up next … The Texas schools. While the former Big Eight schools are struggling, Texas Tech, Houston, TCU and Baylor all have title aspirations.

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This post, about the Postseason game, from the 2025 Season, is filed under Article.
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