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First Look: Big 12 – East Coast and CU
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Preseason magazines are still three months away. Fall Camp is a full five months from opening.
So … naturally … it must be time to take our first look at the Big 12.
For the first time in years, rosters are largely in place (thanks to the elimination of the second Transfer Portal window). The Transfer Portal still contains thousands of names, but few of those players who may still join rosters will significantly alter the fortunes of a Power Four team.
With a tad more stability in the ranks, there are plenty of predictions out in cyberspace for fans to review. We know, for example, from the “Way Too Early Top 25” projections, who will be the favorites in the Big 12 race (Texas Tech; BYU) … But how will the rest of the conference shake out?
Let’s see what the Buffs will be up against this fall. Looking at the rosters and the schedules, we’ll put the teams into one of four tiers:
- Tier One: Big 12 conference title contenders, and, by extension, the College Football Playoff;
- Tier Two: Potential conference title contenders, but missing an element or two. A winning season and a bowl bid are likely;
- Tier Three: A winning season is a realistic goal, but conference title contention is not in the offing; and
- Tier Four: Regrouping, rebuilding, starting over. Wins will come rarely, and will need to be savored.
Spoiler Alert … With a bulging middle class, the Big 12 doesn’t have four teams neatly fitting into each Tier. Members in Tier One and Tier Four will number fewer than those finding themselves in Tier Two and Tier Three.
First, we previewed the Arizona and Utah schools (Essay can be found here). Next up were the former Big Eight schools (Essay can be found here). Then there were the Texas schools (Essay can be found here).
Up now … The three schools in the Eastern time zone … and CU.
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Cincinnati
2025 season
- Record … 7-6; 5-4 … A 7-1 start turned into a disaster with a five game losing streak to end the season
- Rankings; offense … Total offense: 43rd; Scoring offense: 43rd
- Rankings; defense … Total defense: 93rd; Scoring defense: 74th
Off-season
- Recruiting rankings … 57th; 11th in the Big 12
- Transfer Portal … 45th; 8th in the Big 12
- Overall … 60th; 13th in the Big 12
2026 Schedule
- Non-conference: Boston College; Western Carolina; Miami (Ohio)
- Big 12: Toughest: Texas Tech; at BYU; at Houston … Easiest: at West Virginia; Kansas State
- v. Colorado: The teams will play in Cincinnati on November 20th
Thoughts … The Bearcats roared through the first two months of last season, heading into November with a 7-1 record, ranked 17th in the nation. A 45-14 loss to No. 24 Utah, though, sent Cincinnati into a death spiral. The Bearcats proceeded to go 0-for-November, finishing the season with a five-game losing streak, including a 35-13 loss to Navy in the Liberty Bowl.
The Bearcats lost their starting quarterback, Brendan Sorsby, to Texas Tech (though Cincinnati is suing Sorsby for $1 million in a breach of contract action. So they have that going for them, which is nice). As a replacement, Cincinnati is turning to Georgia Southern quarterback JC French IV. The roster is in “complete rebuild” mode, but the Bearcats didn’t rank in the top half in the Big 12 in any of the recruiting rankings.
Pre-Spring Ranking … Tier Three. Cincinnati fans could see a repeat of the 2025 campaign this fall. The Bearcats may not open 7-1 again, but an undefeated September is not out of the question. Cincinnati faces only one Power Four school in non-conference play, and that’s 2-10 Boston College. The Bearcats then finish out September – with all four games at home – against Kansas State.
In the second half of the season, though, Cincinnati must face all three Big 12 favorites – playing Texas Tech at home before facing Houston and BYU on the road. The Bearcats may be in position that they must win their only November home game – against Colorado – to get to bowl eligibility.
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UCF
2025 season
- Record … 5-7, 2-7 … A 3-0 non-conference record proved an illusion, with only two wins in final two months
- Rankings; offense … Total offense: 74th; Scoring offense: 88th
- Rankings; defense … Total defense: 37th; Scoring defense: 56th
Off-season
- Recruiting rankings … 75th; 15th in the Big 12
- Transfer Portal … 61st; 16th in the Big 12
- Overall … 67th; 16th in the Big 12
2026 Schedule
- Non-conference: Bethune-Cookman; at Pitt; Georgia State
- Big 12: Toughest: at Houston, BYU … Easiest: at Oklahoma State; Iowa State
- v. Colorado: The teams will meet in Boulder to close out the season on November 28th
Thoughts … Scott Frost, who led UCF to a 13-0 record and a “national title” in 2017, does not have any job security issues heading into the 2026 season. This despite a 2-7 Big 12 record in his first season back in Orlando last fall. That being said, after Frost’s struggles as the head coach at Nebraska, eyes will be upon the Knights to see if they can find a bowl bid after two straight seasons sitting home (the first back-to-back bowless seasons for UCF since 2003-04).
The new quarterback is Alonzo Barnett III, who transfers in from James Madison. Overall, though, recruiting was a disappointment, with UCF finishing last or second-to-last in Big 12 recruiting rankings. A 5-7 first season … then struggles to supplement the roster … usually doesn’t bode well for a rebuilding team.
Pre-Spring Ranking … Tier Four. You can certainly squint at UCF’s schedule and find a path to six wins and a bowl bid, but there are no guarantees. There are two gimme wins in non-conference play, with games against Bethune-Cookman and a Georgia State team which went 1-11 last season. In Big 12 play, though, the most winnable games – other than a late home game against Iowa State – are on the road (at Oklahoma State; at Kansas). As with Cincinnati, above, a positive finish to the season may come down to a game against Colorado. The teams will meet in Boulder Thanksgiving weekend … with both teams perhaps having a bowl bid on the line.
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West Virginia
2025 season
- Record … 4-8, 2-7 … Surprise wins over Pitt and No. 22 Houston off-set by a number of disappointing losses
- Rankings; offense … Total offense: 94th; Scoring offense: 108th
- Rankings; defense … Total defense: 104th; Scoring defense: 112th
Off-season
- Recruiting rankings … 25th; 3rd in the Big 12
- Transfer Portal … 54th; 13th in the Big 12
- Overall … 33rd; 5th in the Big 12
2026 Schedule
- Non-conference: Coastal Carolina; UT-Martin; v. Virginia (at Charlotte, North Carolina)
- Big 12: Toughest: at TCU; at Texas Tech; Houston … Easiest: Cincinnati; Oklahoma State
- v. Colorado: The teams don’t play in 2026. The teams will meet in Boulder in 2027
Thoughts … In a world when most teams are trying to find either production or promise out the Transfer Portal, West Virginia head coach Rich Rodriguez went old school in rebuilding his roster for the 2026 season.
Very old school.
In an era when schools are recruiting fewer freshmen, Rodriguez went the other way, signing 49 freshmen. In the FBS, only North Carolina (40 new freshmen) and USC (35) were within shouting distance of West Virginia’s haul. Can West Virginia bounce back from a 4-8 season with a roster made up of over half freshmen? TBD.
The quarterback race remains unsettled, with transfer Michael Hawkins, Jr., a backup at Oklahoma, battling with Scotty Fox, Jr., who finished as WVU’s starting quarterback last season as a true freshmen.
Pre-Spring Ranking … Tier Four. The pundits are more optimistic than I am about the near future at West Virginia. Despite relying on a freshman-laden lineup, prognosticators at CBS Sports, Sports Illustrated and On3Sports see the Mountaineers as a bowl team this fall. Coastal Carolina and UT-Martin should be non-conference wins, but ACC runner-up Virginia presents a significant challenge. Road games at Texas Tech, TCU and Utah are likely losses, leaving the Mountaineers to rely on potential home wins over Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and Kansas to get WVU to a winning season.
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Colorado
2025 season
- Record … 3-9, 1-8 … A win over No. 22 Iowa State was followed by a five-game losing streak to end the season
- Rankings; offense … Total offense: 112th; Scoring offense: 114th
- Rankings; defense … Total defense: 121st; Scoring defense: 111th
Off-season
- Recruiting rankings … 71st; 14th in the Big 12
- Transfer Portal … 23rd; 4th in the Big 12
- Overall … 57th; 11th in the Big 12
2026 Schedule
- Non-conference: at Georgia Tech; Weber State; at Northwestern
- Big 12: Toughest: Texas Tech; at Arizona State … Easiest: at Cincinnati; UCF
Thoughts … When you spend all of your off-season reading about Colorado’s new coaches and players – as we do – it’s easy to get caught up a little bit in the hype. Buff fans are – justifiably – excited about what Julian Lewis brings to the table. New offensive coordinator Brennan Marion and his “Go-Go” offense should bring more production – and points – to Folsom Field.
But the pundits can bring you back to reality in short order. They point to a Colorado team which was 110th or worse nationally in most national categories, both offensively and defensively. The Buffs must replace all 11 starters on defense, and have a defensive coordinator who just got the job a week before spring practices started. There is talent in the skill positions on offense, but – once again this year – the offensive line remains a huge question mark.
Pre-Spring Ranking … Tier Three. Unfortunately, you get no bonus points for having a difficult schedule. CU is one of only a handful of teams in the nation with two Power Four opponents in non-conference play – and the only one stuck with playing both of those Power Four non-conference games on the road.
If you gave me the 2026 CU roster and CU’s 2027 schedule, I would be more optimistic. CU’s three non-conference games next fall – Colgate, Northwestern, Northern Illinois – are all at home. The Buffs will also miss Texas Tech, Utah, and Kansas State in Big 12 play.
But the Buffs have to play the hand they were dealt. The schedule has CU playing three of its first four games on the road before returning home to play … Texas Tech. The Buffs could dig themselves a hole to big to come out of by the time the schedule eases up in the second half of the season.
Bowl eligibility in 2026 – doubling last season’s win total – seems like a worthy goal.
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At the Final Gun …
Once again, here are how the tiers are being graded …
- Tier One: Big 12 conference title contenders, and, by extension, the College Football Playoff;
- Tier Two: Potential conference title contenders, but missing an element or two. A winning season and a bowl bid are likely;
- Tier Three: A winning season is a realistic goal, but conference title contention is not in the offing; and
- Tier Four: Regrouping, rebuilding, starting over. Wins will come rarely, and will need to be savored.
And here is how I see the Big 12 shaking out as spring practices take place …
- Tier One – BYU; Texas Tech; Houston
- Tier Two – Arizona; Utah; Arizona State; TCU
- Tier Three – Kansas; Kansas State; Oklahoma State; Baylor; Cincinnati; Colorado
- Tier Four – Iowa State; UCF; West Virginia
Conclusion … Most preseason Top 25 tallies have Texas Tech and BYU, then a drop off to Houston, Utah, and Arizona. I’m not sold on Utah making a seamless transition to the Morgan Scalley era in Salt Lake City, but otherwise the top quarter of the Big 12 appears to be set.
Much of the rest of the league is a grab bag. Some teams have more talent, but a more difficult schedule, while others have an easier path to bowl eligibility, but have holes in the roster. The bottom of the league appears to include Iowa State (coach and many of its best players migrating to Penn State), UCF (5-7 last year; 16th in roster additions), and West Virginia (49 new freshmen doesn’t seem like a plausible path to success in the Transfer Portal era).
Can CU avoid another 15th-place finish, and get to bowl eligibility in 2026?
The Buff Nation certainly hopes so …
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