“T.I.P.S.” for CU v. No. 22 Iowa State

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Colorado v. No. 22 Iowa State: “T.I.P.S.” for the Buffs against the Cyclones

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Colorado and Iowa State have played 65 times, one of CU’s longest-standing rivalries. The series dates back to 1946, with the Buffs holding a commanding 49-15-1 advantage in wins overall, with a 25-6-1 record in games played in Boulder.

The teams haven’t played since 2010, the final year CU was in the Big 12 before defecting to the Pac-12. The 2010 game turned out to be a 34-14 win for the Buffs, with the game played at Folsom.

As it turns out, the home team has won the last seven games in series … Buff fans can only hope that trend continues.

Iowa State is ranked 22nd in the country. Under Coach Prime, CU hasn’t defeated a ranked team since defeating No. 17 TCU in the 2023 season opener.

Can the Buffs buck that trend?

Let’s find out …

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“T.I.P.S” for Colorado v. No. 22 Iowa State – Saturday, 1:30 p.m., MT, ESPN

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T – Talent

Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht has put together some impressive numbers passing so far this season. Becht has passed for 1,417 yards through the air (20th nationally), with nine touchdowns to only two interceptions. In what may come as good news to many Buff fans, though, Becht is not a running quarterback. Becht has only 55 rushing yards in 48 carries … though Becht does have seven rushing touchdown, so be prepared for goal line plays which have been designed for the Cyclone quarterback.

One of the reasons Becht has such a low rushing total is that he has been sacked 12 times this season (78th in the country), three short of his total for all of the 2024 season.

ISU’s rushing attack is a two-headed monster, with both Carson Hansen (79 carries for 348 yards; two touchdowns) and Abu Sama III (68 carries for 304 yards; two touchdowns) leading the way. Overall, though, Iowa State is only average running the ball (151.0 yards/game), only slightly ahead of your Colorado Buffaloes (143.8 yards/game).

One of the top Cyclone receivers is a name known to Buff fans. Chase Sowell, who started his career at CU in 2022 before spending the past two seasons at East Carolina, is second on the team with 13 catches for 236 yards and a touchdown. ISU’s leading receiver is Brett Eskildsen, who has 18 receptions for 321 yards and two scores, including an impressive eight-catch, 105-yard game against Cincinnati last weekend.

Iowa State’s defensive stats have been average, especially for a nationally ranked 5-1 team. The Cyclones are giving up 337.0 yards per game (54th in the nation), including 474 yards against Cincinnati in a 38-30 loss. Iowa State’s numbers against the Bearcats can either be seen as encouraging for Buff fans (ISU gave up 345 yards in the first half), or disquieting for Buff fans who have seen the Buffs struggle in the second half (Cincinnati only had 129 yards of total offense in the second half; 82 of which came on one play).

One of the reasons the Cyclones may have struggled against Cincinnati is that both of ISU’s starting cornerbacks, Jeremiah Cooper and Jontez Williams, have been lost for the season. But, this just in: ISU also gave up 260 yards rushing to Cincinnati, so a team committed to the run can have some success.

In short, opportunities for the CU offense will be there … Can the Buffs take advantage?

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I – Intangibles

Fear of what’s coming for the Buff Nation? … In preparation for Saturday’s game, the Buffs and Cyclones finished their last games going in opposite directions.

CU opened up a 14-0 lead for the second straight week, and, for what is believed to be the first time in school history, blew a two-score lead in consecutive games.

Meanwhile, Iowa State fell behind Cincinnati, 31-7, in the second quarter, but stormed back to a 38-30 deficit, and was an onside kick recovery from really putting a scare into the home crowd.

So, even if the Buffs get up early against Iowa State, there will be uneasiness on the Colorado sidelines (or, at least in the stands) that we have seen this movie before, and that the Cyclones will be able to stage a comeback.

Oh, and if the Buffs get up early against Iowa State, there will still be confidence on the Iowa State sideline that the Cyclones will be able to stage a comeback.

May be just me, but that’s not a great combination if you are hoping for a CU victory.

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P – Preparation/Schedule

Road Warriors? … Iowa State is 5-1 on the season, with a 2-1 record in Big 12 play. This includes a neutral site win (Dublin, Ireland) against Kansas State, and home wins over Iowa and Arizona.

In true road games, though, Iowa State hasn’t done as well. Including the 38-30 loss to Cincinnati (31-7 before the Cyclones began a furious comeback) and a 24-16 win at Arkansas State. Iowa State struggled against the Red Wolves (now 2-4 on the season, including losses to Kennesaw State and UL Monroe), leading only 17-16 in the fourth quarter.

Translation: Iowa State is nationally ranked for a reason … but is also vulnerable on the road.

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Injury reports … Every Wednesday, at 8:00 p.m., MT, the Big 12 “Player Availability Reports” are posted. Each team is required to reports on player in the following categories: “Out”; “Doubtful”; “Questionable”; and “Available”. The CU/Iowa State injury report can be found here Wednesday night.

Last week for the TCU game, CU’s injury report was extensive, including eight of CU’s 16 scholarship defensive linemen being listed as “Questionable” or worse. In all, 17 Buffs were listed as “Out” for the game.

For a defense which will need all hands on deck against a powerful Iowa State offense, an improved injury report will be vital.

Stay tuned …

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Glad to be back in the sunshine … Not a fan of late night games? Neither is Coach Prime.

But, last weekend, for the fifth time in six games, the Buffs played under the lights. The Buffs are 1-4 in night games so far in 2025.

This weekend, the Buffs kick off at 1:30 against the Cyclones. CU is 1-0 in afternoon games so far this fall, taking down Delaware, 31-7, in Week Two in Boulder.

Here’s hoping CU can make it 2-0 under the bright sunshine Saturday (projected high of 74-degrees and partly cloudy skies. Perfect football weather … though the game is not yet a sell out).

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S – Statistics 

The Middle Eight … Coaches often talk about winning “The middle eight”, the last four minutes of the first half, then the first four minutes of the second half. Keeping possession late in the second quarter, especially when your team will be receiving the second half kickoff, is seen as being a chance for teams to take control of a game.

Unfortunately, CU has not been great at the middle eight. With Kaidon Salter at quarterback this fall, CU has had six possessions. During those six possessions, Salter has gone 6-for-17 passing, with no points (and three interceptions, including a gut punch interception at the TCU goal line last weekend).

Meanwhile Iowa State last weekend used the middle eight to get back into its game against Cincinnati. The Bearcats scored late in the second quarter to make it a 31-7 game, and the party was on at Nippert Stadium.

Then … Iowa State scored in the final minute of the second quarter, then again on its first possession of the third quarter. Between possessions, the Cincinnati offense watched its lead go from 31-7 to 31-22. All of the sudden, a rout was a game, and the Bearcat offense responded to the pressure … but fumbling the ball away on its first possession of the second half.

Advantage: Iowa State … a reality which needs to be watched this Saturday.

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CU’s rushing defense remains offensive … Last season, Kent State was last in the nation in rushing defense, giving up 264.9 yards per game. Against Georgia Tech, the Colorado defense surrendered 320 yards rushing. That was good enough to rank CU 132nd out of 134 teams nationally after Week One.

With that huge total, it’s going to take some exceptional defensive line play to bring CU into even an average rush defense numbers by the end o f the season.

In giving up only 94 rushing to TCU, the Buffs helped their season average … a little. CU still has a long way to go to just to get to an average rush defense.

Below is CU’s game-by-game numbers, with the new season average, and the new season national ranking:

• Georgia Tech (320; 320.0; 132nd) … Delaware (84; 202.0; 121st) … Houston (209; 204.3, 123rd) … Wyoming (165; 194.5; 121st) … BYU (208; 197.2; 123rd) …TCU (94; 180.0; 113th)

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Prediction … 

“Yeah, it’s frustrating because I’m seeing what you see,” Deion Sanders said of CU’s last two losses. “I felt like, and this is no disrespect to TCU, because they’re well coached. They did a wonderful job. Quarterback made plays. I feel like we’re the better team. Felt like that last week, the week before, but yet, we’re still in this situation.”

Yeah, we can see it, coach. And while no one likes watching the same movie again and again (especially a movie with an unsatisfying ending), that’s what we’ve been subjected to of late.

Last two predictions:

• Prediction: No. 25 BYU 24, Colorado 20 … Actual: No. 25 BYU 24, Colorado 21
• Prediction: TCU 34, Colorado 21 … Actual: TCU 35, Colorado 21

Trust me, I gain no satisfaction out of seeing what’s coming … you’re seeing it, too. The Buffs play well on script early on, but whether CU is being out-talented or out-coached, they can’t sustain success. The opposition eventually wears down the Buffs … and overtakes them.

There’s no logical reason to assume that the Buffs can take a lead on the Cyclones and sustain that lead for 40 minutes. Iowa State has beaten Kansas State, Iowa, and Arizona. Colorado has exactly zero wins over Power Four conference schools. Iowa State opened as a 4.5-point favorite, despite being on the road for the second week in a row.

It’s going to be a beautiful day at Folsom Field. To hell with logic, I want to cheer for my team, not an outcome. I’d rather be wrong this weekend than predict another CU loss.

A one week hopeful special …

Prediction … Colorado 28, No. 22 Iowa State 21

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2025 Predictions (4-2 Straight up; 4-2 Against the spread) …

• Colorado 27, Georgia Tech 23 … Actual: Georgia Tech 27, Colorado 20
• Colorado 38, Delaware 13 … Actual: Colorado 31, Delaware 7
• Colorado 24, Houston 20 … Actual: Houston 36, Colorado 20
• Colorado 27, Wyoming 13 … Actual: Colorado 37, Wyoming 20
• No. 25 BYU 24, Colorado 20 … Actual: No. 25 BYU 24, Colorado 21
• TCU 34, Colorado 21 … Actual: TCU 35, Colorado 21

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2024 Predictions … (Straight up: 10-3; Against the Spread: 10-3) …
2023 Predictions … (Straight up: 8-4; Against the Spread: 7-5) …
2022 Predictions … (Straight up: 10-2; Against the Spread: 9-3) …
2021 Predictions … (Straight up: 9-3; Against the Spread: 7-5) …

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This post, about the Iowa State game, from the 2025 Season, is filed under Article.
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