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Picking on the Preseason Picks
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There is a scene in the movie Rudy where our hero is in a church, praying to get into Notre Dame. A priest who has befriended Rudy stops by, and Rudy asks him if there is anything the priest can do to help get him into his dream school.
The priest pauses thoughtfully, then responds: “In 35 years of religious studies, I have to come to only two hard, incontributable facts: There is a God; and, I’m not him”.
In my 45 years of college football studies, I have also come up with these two hard, incontributable facts: That there are preseason prognostications; and, no one likes how their teams are treated.
Now, if your team is a preseason pick to win the national championship that might not hold true. But, until CU is a consensus preseason No. 1, I am likely to continue to be unhappy with how my team is treated in the preseason magazines and online previews.
And that seems to be especially true this summer.
Colorado, coming off of a 9-4 season in 2024, is nonetheless being treated this summer as if the Buffs will resort to previous season failures. Despite finishing in a tie for first in the Big 12 conference last season with a 7-2 record, CU is often picked to finish around 10th in the conference in the upcoming season (the Buffs were picked to finish 11th last summer).
Now, you didn’t have to be Nostradamus to have anticipated that most of the preseason articles about the Buffs would lead off with “Well, without Travis and Shedeur … “, but the research rarely seems to go much deeper.
Granted, Buff fans are not alone in being guilty of giving their team more credit than they may be due. We tend to look at the Buffs through black-and-gold colored glasses, and highlighting strengths (Great defensive front! Multiple stars in the making in the wide receiver room!), while glossing over deficiencies (running back roster; offensive line question marks, inside linebacker issues).
So, I’ve tried to go a little bit deeper, and see if there are some objective measurements to show a bias – intentional or not – against Coach Prime and his 2025 roster …
CBS Sports
Let’s start with a story posted this week by CBS Sports: “Every Big 12 team’s best, worst case scenario in 2025: Sub-.500 for Deion Sanders? Unbeaten Arizona State?”
Now, from the click-bait headline, you knew it wasn’t going to be good news for CU fans. In the article, the “best case scenario” for Colorado was listed as 8-4, with a worst-case scenario of 4-8.
Considering CU finished 9-4 last season, it got me to wondering, were there any other Big 12 teams who were given a “best case scenario” which was actually worse than last season’s results?
Let’s take a look:
- Arizona State … 11-3 in 2024 … CBS “best case scenario” for 2025: 12-0
- Iowa State … 11-3 … best case: 10-2
- BYU … 11-2 … best case: 11-1
- Colorado … 9-4 … best case: 8-4
- Kansas State … 9-4 … best case: 11-1
- TCU … 9-4 … best case: 11-1
- Baylor … 8-5 … best case: 11-1
- Texas Tech … 8-5 … best case: 12-0
- West Virginia … 6-7 … best case: 8-4
- Kansas … 5-7 … best case: 10-2
- Cincinnati … 5-7 … best case: 9-3
- Utah … 5-7 … best case: 11-1
- Houston … 4-8 … best case: 9-3
- UCF … 4-8 … best case: 6-6
- Arizona … 4-8 … best case: 7-5
- Oklahoma State … 3-9 … best case: 8-4
One doesn’t have to do a deep dive into this story to see the bias against CU and Coach Prime. Every school other than CU and Iowa State have a “best case scenario” which is higher than last season’s win total (and I doubt too many Iowa State fans, who enjoyed their first-ever double-digit win season in 2024, are complaining about the 10-2 best case projection).
In all, nine of the 16 Big 12 teams are given best case scenarios of ten wins or more, including two teams which finished last season with losing records. Seven teams were given a best-case scenario which was at least four games better than last season’s results … but CU, with a 9-4 record in 2024, was given a best hope of an 8-4 record.
Only two teams in the entire conference are given a lower “best case scenario” win total than is given CU and its eight wins: UCF and Arizona, both of which finished last year 4-8. The best case scenario for West Virginia – which has over 50 new players on its roster – and Oklahoma State – which was last seen losing 52-0 to the Buffs last November – are given the same chance of getting to 8-4 as are the Buffs.
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ESPN SP+ rankings
ESPN’s Bill Connelly is seen as the guru of college football analytics, with his metrics lauded as one of the best – and most objective – rankings. Connelly takes into account returning production, recent recruiting, and recent history to give a ranking to all 136 FBS schools.
Connelly’s 2025 post-spring SP+ Big 12 power rankings (and each team’s 2024 record):
- No. 18 – Kansas State – 11-3
- No. 22 – Arizona State – 11-3
- No. 26 – Texas Tech – 8-5
- No. 27 – BYU – 11-2
- No. 29 – TCU – 9-4
- No. 31 – Utah – 5-7
- No. 32 – Iowa State – 11-3
- No. 35 – Baylor – 8-5
- No. 50 – Kansas – 5-7
- No. 52 – Colorado – 8-4
- No. 57 – West Virginia – 6-7
- No. 58 – Oklahoma State – 3-9
- No. 59 – Houston – 4-8
- No. 60 – Arizona – 4-8
- No. 61 – UCF – 4-8
- No. 66- Cincinnati – 5-7
Connelly not only has CU ranked below a 5-7 Utah team the Buffs beat, 49-24, last season, and below a 5-7 Kansas team, but also below the Baylor Bears, who lost to CU last fall, 38-31, in overtime. CU’s No. 52 national ranking puts the Buffs at 10th in the Big 12, and ranked nationally below the likes of Rutgers, Tulane and James Madison.
It really shouldn’t come as much surprise to Buff fans, though, as Connelly’s metrics have never warmed to neither Coach Prime nor his roster building techniques.
Last season, CU opened the season ranked No. 60 in the nation in Connelly’s preseason SP+ rankings, listed in the same breath as UTSA, Appalachian State, and, again, James Madison.
Then, even after the Buffs posted a 9-4, 7-2 record last season, CU still failed to make headway in Connelly’s metrics. In the final ESPN SP+ rankings for the 2024 season, Colorado, which finished ranked No. 25 in the final Associated Press poll, rose all the way up in the SP+ rankings to … No. 39.
No. 39 … that would be behind the likes of No. 30 Virginia Tech (6-7), No. 33 Oklahoma (6-7), No. 34 Auburn (5-7), and No. 38 Baylor (8-5) … and just ahead of No. 40 Utah (5-7).
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Athlon and Lindy’s
Two of the biggest selling preseason magazines are also in line in not expecting much from Colorado in 2025.
Athlon’s 2025 Big 12 preseason projections (with 2024 records):
- No. 13 – Kansas State – 11-3
- No. 14 – Arizona State – 11-3
- No. 22 – Texas Tech – 8-5
- No. 23 – Iowa State – 11-3
- No. 29 – Baylor – 8-5
- No. 30 – BYU – 11-2
- No. 33 – Utah – 5-7
- No. 36 – Kansas – 5-7
- No. 37 – TCU – 9-4
- No. 50 – Colorado – 8-4
- No. 51 – Houston – 4-8
- No. 61- Cincinnati – 5-7
- No. 68 – Oklahoma State – 3-9
- No. 70 – West Virginia – 6-7
- No. 72 – Arizona – 4-8
- No. 73 – UCF – 4-8
Lindy’s 2025 Big 12 preseason projections (with 2024 records):
- No. 14 – Arizona State – 11-3
- No. 18 – Texas Tech – 8-5
- No. 20 – Kansas State – 11-3
- No. 21 – BYU – 11-2
- No. 22 – Iowa State – 11-3
- No. 25 – Baylor – 8-5
- No. 35 – TCU – 9-4
- No. 36 – Kansas – 5-7
- No. 38 – Utah – 5-7
- No. 48 – Houston – 4-8
- No. 53- Cincinnati – 5-7
- No. 54 – Colorado – 8-4
- No. 65 – UCF – 4-8
- No. 66 – West Virginia – 6-7
- No. 74 – Arizona – 4-8
- No. 82 – Oklahoma State – 3-9
In picking CU to finish 10th in the Big 12, the Athlon magazine preview includes the following: One of the biggest questions for Deion Sanders and Colorado is who will lead the offense in the P.S (post-Shedeur Sanders) era in Boulder … They’ll be starting from scratch in the receiver corps with last year’s Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter moving on to the NFL.
While Lindy’s, in picking CU to finish 12th in the Big 12, opened it’s preview with this: Deion Sanders and his staff have a massive job on their hands as they look to replace the eye-popping production of the departed Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter.
Sigh.
It is what it is. Buff fans knew going into the off-season that the post-Travis and Shedeur era would be treated the way it has by the national media. It was something of a surprise, though, that little credit was given to the team for finishing 9-4, with a 7-2 record in CU’s first season back in the Big 12. The CBS and ESPN SP+ numbers in particular show that there remains some lingering subjective bias against Colorado and Coach Prime.
Heading into the 2024 season, the narrative was, “sure, they’ve got Travis and Shedeur, but they are coming off of a 4-8 season”.
Heading into the 2025 season, the narrative now is, “sure, they finished 9-4, but now they are without Travis and Shedeur”.
If the Buffs are successful in 2025, we can but wonder what the negative narrative will be next off-season … but we know they will find one.
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