Friday Fast Facts – Utah Week

Leading off … 

— Your “T.I.P.S” for Colorado at Utah, my weekly written preview, along with my prediction for CU’s attempt at back-to-back wins for the first time this season, can be found here.

 

The Big Picture …

 Watch the scoreboard … In the Coach Prime era, when the Buffs score over 30 points in a game, CU is 13-3 (with a ten-game winning streak, including wins this September over Delaware and Wyoming). When the Buffs score less than 30 points in a game, however, CU has the exact opposite record: 3-13 (though the Buffs did win last weekend, taking out No. 22 Iowa State, 24-17);

— The ESPN Power Index … Last weekend, CU was a 4.5-point home underdog to No. 22 Iowa State, with the ESPN Power Index giving Iowa State a 63.1% chance at victory. This weekend, the Buffs are 13.5-point road underdogs with the ESPN Power Index giving the Cyclones a 83.4% chance at winning;

— Broadcast info … The 8:15 p.m., MT, game will be telecast nationally by ESPN, with Roy Philpott on the play-by-play, Brock Osweiler on color, and Stormy Bounantony on the sidelines … 850 KOA radio will have Mark Johnson with the play-by-play, and former CU head coach Gary Barnett as the analyst. The ESPN lead-in game, at 5:00 p.m., MT, features the Stanford at No. 9 Miami (the Hurricanes are 30.5-point favorites, so the game might actually end on time).

 

CU & Utah … on the field … 

— This will be the 72nd meeting between the two schools, in a series which dates back to 1903. With last year’s victory in Boulder, CU crept back within two wins, with Utah still leading in the all-time series, 35-33-3;

— The 72 games in the series is tied for fifth-most games for any CU opponent, behind only CSU (93); Missouri (75); Nebraska (73); and tied with Kansas (72).  The 33 wins by the Buffs over the Utes are the fifth most over any Division I/FBS program, behind only Colorado State (69), Iowa State (50), Kansas State (45) and Kansas (42), and are sixth overall when including the defunct series with Colorado Mines (36);

— Colorado won the first three games in the series, winning the games played between 1903-05 by a combined score of 101-11. Utah’s best run in the series came between 1925-33, when the Utes ran off nine straight wins. CU had a nice run of its own, winning eight of the ten games between 1951 and 1962 before the rivalry went dormant;

— Utah won four of the first five meetings after the pair joined the Pac-12, with the Buffs breaking a four-game losing streak with a 27-22 win in 2016. After that, it’s was seven more victories for the Utes before the Buffs broke through with a win last season, the first between the two schools as members of the Big 12;

— In games played in Salt Lake City, the Utes have won six straight, dating back to CU’s 17-14 win in 2011 in the first season as Pac-12 members for both schools. CU won last year in Boulder, 49-24 (story below). The Buffs haven’t won back-to-back games in the series since, um, 1957-58.

 

Colorado and Utah … historical … 

— In the 12 statistical categories tracked by Winsipedia, Utah leads Colorado in only three of 12 categories … though they are significant;

— In all-time winning percentage, the Utes inched past the Buffs in the past few years. Utah has a .595 winning percentage (729-491-31), which is 29th on the all-time list. With the decade-plus long drought in Boulder, Colorado has slipped to a .569 wining percentage (735-552-36), good enough for 45th on the all-time list;

— The other category in which Utah has a lead is in bowl winning percentage. Colorado has a losing record in bowl games (12-19), while Utah has the fifth-best bowl winning percentages in the nation (17-9);

Otherwise, however, Colorado has significant advantages, including:

— Weeks in the Associated Press poll: CU, 317 … Utah, 185;

— Consensus All-Americans: CU, 33 … Utah, 12;

— NFL draft picks: CU, 293 … Utah, 178; and

— CU’s national championships (1) and Heisman trophy winners (2) … Utah, 0 in both categories.

 

The last time CU played Utah …

November 16, 2024 … No. 18 Colorado 49, Utah 24 

Game Story … Shedeur Sanders overcame a shaky start to throw three touchdown passes, LaJohntay Wester returned a punt 76 yards for a score and No. 18 Colorado pulled away late to beat Utah 49-24.

The win was the fourth straight for the Buffs, raising the season record to 8-2, 6-1. With two games remaining in the regular season, the Buffs continued to control their own destiny for a berth in the Big 12 championship game.

Sanders threw an interception on his first pass of the game and later lost a fumble. But he settled down and finished 30 of 41 for 340 yards. He connected twice on touchdown passes with Will Sheppard, with freshman Drelon Miller posting the third receiving touchdown. Sanders upped his touchdown pass count for the season to 27, one short of the single-season school record set by Sefo Liufau in 2014.

Leading 35-16 early in the fourth quarter, the Buffaloes saw the Utes stage a late rally to make things interesting down the stretch. The comeback was thwarted, however, by D.J. McKinney’s interception and then a sack from Shilo Sanders that resulted in a fumble that Colorado covered.

Continue reading story

My Essay for the story … “Exorcising Demons” … can be found here

Game highlights … 

 

— Getting to Know Utah … Notes and Numbers … 

Third Down Efficiency … The Utes lead the FBS in third down conversion percentage (57.6%). Utah was 5-for-12 on
third down at then-No. 15 BYU last week, just the second time this season they have finished under 50% in a game. CU, meanwhile, is a respectable 45th nationally in third-down defense (35.6%);

Guard this Guy … Utah defensive end John Henry Daley is tied for second in the country and second in the conference in sacks, totaling 9.0 on the season for 73 yards. CU’s entire defense, in contrast, has eight sacks (120th in the nation);  

Time for Turnovers … Utah is 80th in the nation in turnover margin, coming into the game (7 turnovers gained; 8 lost) … But … Colorado is 91st (6 turnovers gained; 8 lost). If CU is to pull of an upset, the Buffs need to made a significant dent in this statistic.

 

Stats Worth Noting …

Yes, Virginia, Utah is good on offense – and defense … Utah is in the top 20 nationally and sits top three in the conference in both scoring defense and scoring offense. The Utes are allowing just 15.3 points per game (12th NCAA, 2nd Big 12) and are scoring 36.9 points per game (20th NCAA, 3rd Big 12);

Not bad under Coach Prime … CU has played Utah twice under Coach Prime. In addition to the 49-24 win in Boulder last November, the Buffs suffered a 23-17 loss to Utah in Salt Lake City to close out the 2023 season. The loss for Buffs was the seventh in a row to close out a 4-8 season. While a loss (with Ryan Staub starting, was actually the closest the Buffs had been to beating the Utes since the win in 2016. Between 2017 and 2022, Utah beat Colorado by an average score of 40-15.

If Utah runs all over CU, well, you heard it here first … Utah’s offensive line has paved the way throughout the first half of the season. The Utes rank sixth in the FBS and lead the Big 12 in rushing offense (245 ypg), and are ninth in the nation in sacks allowed (0.86 spg). Meanwhile, CU is 116th in rushing defense (188.0 yards per game), and, as noted above, CU is 120th nationally in team sacks.

 

Player Notes …

Put me in, Coach … Two Buffs made their first collegiate start against Iowa State. True freshman defensive lineman London Merritt and red-shirt freshman tight end Yahya Attia made their starting debuts in CU’s last game;

Believe it or not … Four different players have led the Buffs in rushing this season, with Micah Welch (Georgia Tech; BYU), Simeon Price (Delaware; Wyoming), Dallan Hayden (TCU; Iowa State) and Kaidon Salter (Wyoming). This being the case, it came as a surprise to me that … the starting running back in all seven of CU’s games to date has been Micah Welch;

Jordan Seaton: CU’s next All-American? … Jordan Seaton was named a midseason first team All-American by Sporting News and to the Lombardi Midseason Watch List since the Buffs last hit the field. He has a pass block grade of 94.7 on PFF, the top of any offensive lineman in the FBS. He is one of just three Big 12 offensive linemen grading out over 90, the only tackle. In 240 pass block snaps, he has allowed just one hurry, no penalties and just three negatively graded plays.

 

Big 12 Notes …

— Four Big 12 teams ranked … The Big 12 Conference kept the same four teams in the AP poll this week … with Arizona State replacing Utah in the rankings

  • With No. 7 Texas Tech losing to Arizona State, the Red Raiders fell out of the Top Ten, falling to No. 14;
  • BYU’s win over Utah resulted in the Cougars rising to No. 11, the highest ranking of any team in the Big 12;
  • Arizona State jumped back into the poll, at No. 24, while No. 23 Utah dropped out (down to No. 27 with CU coming to town.

— Big 12 This-and-That 

  • Only three FBS players have nine or more sacks this season, two of them are Texas Tech’s David Bailey (1st – 10.5 sacks) and Utah’s John Henry Daley (T-2nd – 9.0 sacks);
  • BYU is one of six remaining undefeated teams in FBS and has won 11 of its 13 Big 12 games since the start of the 2024 season;
  • Texas Tech’s 6-1 record marks its best start through seven games since 2013.

 Big 12 lines 

From DraftKings …

Big 12 lines … 

Saturday, October 25th

  • Kansas State at Kansas … 10:00 a.m., MT, TNT … Kansas is a 3.5-point home favorite …
  • No. 11 BYU at Iowa State … 1:30 p.m., MT, Fox … Iowa State is a 2.5-point home favorite …
  • Oklahoma State at No. 14 Texas Tech … 2:00 p.m., MT, ESPNU … Texas Tech is a 36.5-point home favorite …
  • Baylor at No. 21 Cincinnati … 2:00 p.m., MT, ESPN2 … Cincinnati is a 3.5-point home favorite …
  • TCU at West Virginia … 4:00 p.m., MT, ESPN+ … West Virginia is a 15.5-point home underdog
  • Houston at No. 24 Arizona State … 6:00 p.m., MT, ESPN2 … Arizona State is a 7.5-point home favorite …
  • Colorado at Utah … 8:15 p.m., MT, ESPN … Utah is a 13.5-point home favorite …

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