—
CU’s 2025 Schedule Countdown – The Buffs’ Six Most Difficult Games
—
It’s going to be a season of “toss up” games for the Buffs, which makes the following all the more difficult … ranking CU’s 2025 opponents from what should be the easiest games, to those which should prove more difficult to win.
Last weekend, we worked our way through CU’s “Easiest” Games for the 2025 season. These were the six games rated based upon factors including the opposing team’s talent, returning starters, together with when and where the teams play.
The list of “easiest” games … No. 12 Delaware … No. 11 Wyoming … No. 10 Arizona … No. 9 at West Virginia … No. 8 at Houston … No. 7 BYU …
Now, it’s time to rate the six most difficult games.
[Note … For point of reference and comparison … At Lindy’s, Colorado is rated as the No. 54 team in the nation (down from No. 49 last year); No. 50 at Athlon’s (same as last year), and, in the ESPN Football Power Index, CU comes in at No. 52, down from No. 36 last year. So, yes, Buff fans, the 2025 preseason magazines have CU ranked lower coming off of a 9-4 season than they did last summer, when CU was coming off of a 4-8 season. Go figure.]
[Note II … Last season, CU went 6-0 against the teams I rated as the “Six ‘Easiest’ Games of 2024“, and 3-3 against the teams I rated as the “Six ‘Toughest’ Games of 2024“. Full disclosure, I rated Utah and Oklahoma State as two of CU’s most difficult games … and the Buffs won both handily.]
The 2025 list …
–
— No. 6 … at Utah … Saturday, October 25th … Lindy’s No. 33 … Athlon’s No. 33 … ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) No. 46 …
The powers that be want to give Kyle Whittingham and Utah the benefit of the doubt, and that’s reasonable. In 20 seasons at Utah, Whittingham has had only three losing campaigns, so the 5-7 record in 2024 can be seen as an aberration.
Or … Is it the start of a new trend?
Before defeating UCF in the regular season finale in a game which had little meaning for either team, Utah had lost seven straight games, including a 49-24 loss to CU in Boulder.
The defense is always good, but returns only four starters, and the Utes must replace all of their skill position players. Former New Mexico quarterback Devon Dampier is being given more preseason hype than CU’s Kaidon Salter, and I’m not sure why. The competition Dampier faced in the WAC was not significantly greater than what Salter faced at Liberty … and Salter had more success.
Also, in the two weeks before playing CU, Utah has to play conference favorite Arizona State, and then go on the road to face rival BYU. Meanwhile, the Buffs have a bye week to prepare for playing in Salt Lake City. I’m counting on the Utes leaving it all on the field in Provo, and not having a full tank against the rested Buffs.
—
— No. 5 … Iowa State … Saturday, October 11th … Lindy’s No. 22 … Athlon’s No. 23 … ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) No. 45 …
Last season, Iowa State won double digit games for the first time in school history, and played in the Big 12 title game … just a victory against Kansas State away from the Cyclones’ first conference title since 1912.
Iowa State had the No. 1 passing defense in the nation last season, but the secondary has lost three starters. The Cyclones’ pass defense stats were also bolstered by the fact that ISU had the 109th-ranked rush defense. The offense is led by quarterback Rocco Becht, who led the Iowa State offense to no fewer than four game-winning drives in their final possession – can Becht be that successful this fall?
The entire nation will be watching the Week Zero game between Iowa State and Kansas State in Dublin on August 23rd. The winner will be anointed as one of the favorites to win the Big 12. The loser? Not so much.
The Buffs may also benefit from another quirk in the ISU schedule. Between September 6th and October 25th, Iowa State will play only one home game. The CU game in Boulder will be the Cyclones’ third road game out of four, with Iowa State playing back-to-back road games against Cincinnati and Colorado.
—
— No. 4 … at TCU … Saturday, October 4th … Lindy’s No. 35 … Athlon’s No. 37 … ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) No. 32 …
TCU quietly won nine games last season, finishing the season on a four game winning streak. But … TCU’s last four games were against Oklahoma State, Arizona, Cincinnati, and, in the New Mexico Bowl, against Louisiana. As it turned out, wins over Texas Tech and Louisiana were TCU’s only two wins over teams which finished with winning records in 2024.
The Horned Frogs won’t sneak up on anyone in 2025. The Buffs play in Ft. Worth on October 4th. Before that game, TCU will have played at North Carolina, then games against 2024 CFP participants SMU and Arizona State (oh, and TCU has to go on the road to face Kansas State the following week). If the Horned Frogs get through their early season gauntlet unscathed, it could be a long afternoon for the Buffs in Texas.
TCU was 8th in the nation in passing offense last season, and quarterback Josh Hoover returns – but all three of the Horned Frogs’ top receivers from last season are gone. TCU had trouble running the ball (112th nationally) and stopping the run (83rd), so it will be up to the Buffs to take advantage.
The Buffs aren’t likely to get the 510 yards and four touchdown passes CU got from Shedeur Sanders in his debut as a Buff in the much-hyped 2023 opener, and the Horned Frogs will certainly be looking for revenge. How each team gets through their September schedules will go a long way in determining how to rate this game the first weekend in October.
—
— No. 3 … Georgia Tech … Friday, August 29th … Lindy’s No. 41 … Athlon’s No. 35 … ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) No. 28 …
The Yellow Jackets present significant problems for the Buffs as CU’s 2025 season opening opponent. CU gets the homefield advantage with a Friday night game in Boulder, but Georgia Tech will be prepared, and the Yellow Jackets are a quality team. Georgia Tech finished 7-6 last season, but tended to only lose to good teams (Syracuse, Louisville, Notre Dame … together with an eight-overtime loss to Georgia).
The Haynes combination – quarterback Haynes King and running back Jamal Haynes – will be a challenge for CU’s rushing defense. It will be strength against strength on August 29th, as Georgia Tech, which averaged 187.0 yards rushing per game last season, will try and take it to CU’s defensive line, perhaps the deepest and strongest unit on the team.
The Buffs could be aided by the fact that the Yellow Jackets are replacing three offensive linemen, including both tackles, but the experience and talent of the Haynes and Haynes combo should more than make up for the deficiencies.
DraftKings has Georgia Tech as a 3.5-point favorite on the road against Colorado, meaning that on a neutral field, Vegas sees the Yellow Jackets as being a touchdown better than the Buffs. This game won’t make or break CU’s 2025 season … but it could certainly set the tone.
—
— No. 2 … Arizona State … Saturday, November 22nd … Lindy’s No. 14 … Athlon’s No. 14 … ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) No. 24 …
When listing Arizona State as the favorite to repeat as Big 12 champions, pundits cite two factors: returning starters and the ASU schedule this fall.
The Sun Devils have as many returning starters as anyone in the league, with seven returning starters on offense; nine on defense. Tops on the list of returnees are quarterback Sam Leavitt and former CU wide receiver Jordan Tyson, who are being counted on to take over the offense for all-everything running back Cam Skattebo, who accounted for 60 percent of ASU’s offensive plays in 2024. If the offense can replace Skattebo, the defense, which was ranked in the top 40 nationally and helped the Sun Devils to a +14 turnover margin last year, Arizona State will be in the thick of the Big 12 race all season.
The Big 12 schedule makers were kind to the Sun Devils. ASU has seven home games, and miss both Kansas schools and BYU on the conference calendar. The game against Colorado in Boulder this November will be the final home game for the Buffs, and the final road game for the Sun Devils. If the Buffs are still in the hunt for the Big 12 title game in late November, this could be one of the Big 12 games of the year.
On the other hand, if Arizona State is eyeing a College Football Playoff run, and the Buffs are struggling for bowl eligibility, this could be a tough Senior Day at Folsom.
—
— No. 1 … at Kansas State … Saturday, November 29th … Lindy’s No. 20 … Athlon’s No. 13 … ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) No. 21 …
Kansas State and Colorado both finished the 2024 season with 9-4 records, but much more is expected out of the Wildcats this fall than is expected out the Buffs in 2025. The main reason is KSU quarterback Avery Johnson, who was as dangerous with his legs (605 rushing yards; seven touchdowns) as he was with his arm (2,712 passing yards, 25-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio).
As is the case with CU’s second most-difficult game, the Buffs will face a star offensive player who used to don the black-and-gold. With the departure of leading rusher DJ Giddens, former Buff Dylan Edwards will be counted upon to lead the KSU rushing attack.
If Kansas State can get past Iowa State in the Week Zero game in Dublin, it could be smooth sailing for the Wildcats into late October. What could work to CU’s advantage leading up to the regular season finale in Manhattan Thanksgiving weekend is that the KSU game against the Buffs will represent only the second time after October 11th KSU will get to play at home. Other than a home game against Texas Tech – a game which could have significant national impact – Kansas State will finish with road games against in-state rival Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Utah, with back-to-back road games against the Cowboys and Utes, before the home finale against Colorado.
Kansas State has gone 48-28 in its first six season under Chris Klieman, with the Wildcats averaging eight wins a season. This gives KSU the benefits of many doubts heading into the 2025 campaign, and a loud Senior Day in Manhattan may prove too tough for the Buffs.
–
Overall … The 2025 campaign may prove to be a watershed season for the Colorado football program … one way or the other. If the Buffs fall short of a bowl, the haters will have a field day. If the Buffs post a winning season, but fall short of nine wins, the haters will tout the decline of Coach Prime. On the other hand, if the Buffs get to double digit wins … the haters will start picking out Coach Prime’s next destination.
The bigger picture is that CU needs to remain relevant in the Big 12 if the Buffs are going to be a player come the next wave of realignment. Coach Prime needs to keep posting wins for that relevance to continue.
The 2025 schedule is full of opportunities … and pitfalls. If the 2024 Big 12 season taught us anything, it’s that there are no sure things in this conference.
Vegas has CU with a 6.5 over/under in terms of wins in 2025. That’s up from 3.5 wins in 2023, then 5.5 wins in 2025.
If the Buffs can surpass expectations once again, and get seven or more wins out of this schedule, it will be a good year.
If the Buffs can equal or surpass last season’s nine win total … it will be an exceptional year.
–
—–